Northern England - Cold Spell Discussion

[kold weather]

Coastal areas will remain very marginal throughout simply due to the state of the SST's in the Irish Sea at the moment, but further inland chances of accumulating snow overnight look pretty decent. Global models aren't too agressive but I think its pretty evident the models are somewhat under-estimating the convective ability of the Irish Sea.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Coastal areas will remain very marginal throughout simply due to the state of the SST's in the Irish Sea at the moment, but further inland chances of accumulating snow overnight look pretty decent. Global models aren't too agressive but I think its pretty evident the models are somewhat under-estimating the convective ability of the Irish Sea.

hmmm not so sure Kold its seriously WET out there and i have 620feet on my side and still its raining moderately.

my confidence is beginning to decline rapdily

[k19]

Coastal areas will remain very marginal throughout simply due to the state of the SST's in the Irish Sea at the moment, but further inland chances of accumulating snow overnight look pretty decent. Global models aren't too agressive but I think its pretty evident the models are somewhat under-estimating the convective ability of the Irish Sea.

Yes it would not surprise me if the stronger showers developing now make it over the pennines with the strong wind

[Isolated Frost]

Fell dramatically now- shower on course for us in a bit if it passes the pennines, 3.3c/0.6c.

[ISAAC]

Im in stoke,North Midlands, so cant rule out anything, cheshire gap wont work as its not a direct NW flow, but a few showers could still flter tonight.

currently 3.5c and a dewpoint of 3.3c

[Terminal Moraine]

The first sleet of the winter falling here. I suppose just a slim chance of some proper snow if the showers continue into the evening and a good chance of a thin cover above 500m.

[kold weather]

hmmm not so sure Kold its seriously WET out there and i have 620feet on my side and still its raining moderately.

my confidence is beginning to decline rapdily

Remember it is peak daytime heating, so temps will be at thier highest now.

Also don't forget the colder air is still digging down, your probably still around -3/4C at 850hpa right now and with the Irish sea as mild as it is, that really can make a difference.

You guys will have me most of the day on here by the way, sure that is what you all want to hear haha!

[A Winter's Tale]

Who said that there was a polar low?

[k19]

Who said that there was a polar low?

there is a polar low http://sat24.com/?ir=true just north west of iceland

[PMPhotography]

Just had a hail / sleet shower here in Scarborough. First wintriness of the season. I don't imagine much PPN here when the colder air digs in overnight but we may just get something!

Temp 3.2C.

[Liam J]

I'm right next to the Irish Sea and only 70m ASL and managed to see hail/sleet/snow mix in heavier showers earlier with a strong west wind whipping right off the water.

Then again I am further north and in the -5c T850.

[Jeckers]

Just been for a walk above Middleton in Teesdale on the hills, was snowing the whole time and accumulating at the tops. Driving back down it seemed to turn back to sleet at about 200m or so. Kids had a great time throwing the first snowballs of the year at me!

[kold weather]

As may have already been mentioned height above sea level and also distance from the Irish Sea will help out no end, anyone above say 200M is in for a snowy night if you manage to get caught in the shower train coming in from the Irish Sea. Models suggest 5-10cms on higher ground tonight.

[Teesdale]

Just been for a walk above Middleton in Teesdale on the hills, was snowing the whole time and accumulating at the tops. Driving back down it seemed to turn back to sleet at about 200m or so. Kids had a great time throwing the first snowballs of the year at me!

[Isolated Frost]

Fantastic to view there Mark! 3.2c here.

[Snowstorm1]

3.9c now slightly rose again here

[Terminal Moraine]

What altitude was that photo' taken at, Teesdale, about 330 mts ?

[kold weather]

Another heads up, the ECM suggests about 3-4cms from Halifax to Manchester with Oldham being the highest point of snowfall probsbly with 5-6cms by the morning.

also ECM looks VERY interesting for Thursday for northern England. The GFS suggests the snowfall goes further north over Scotland, but IF the ECM came off then northern parts would widely get 5-10cms down to Leeds.

[swainclubber]

Another heads up, the ECM suggests about 3-4cms from Halifax to Manchester with Oldham being the highest point of snowfall probsbly with 5-6cms by the morning.

also ECM looks VERY interesting for Thursday for northern England. The GFS suggests the snowfall goes further north over Scotland, but IF the ECM came off then northern parts would widely get 5-10cms down to Leeds.

sounds promising

[Jeckers]

Yep, thats about how it looked Teesdale

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Another heads up, the ECM suggests about 3-4cms from Halifax to Manchester with Oldham being the highest point of snowfall probsbly with 5-6cms by the morning.

also ECM looks VERY interesting for Thursday for northern England. The GFS suggests the snowfall goes further north over Scotland, but IF the ECM came off then northern parts would widely get 5-10cms down to Leeds.

if i get 1 cm tonight i will knit fog.(and also make you an honourable gentleman kold) :lol:

[Teesdale]

Sunny skies at the moment, looks like another shr coming along in an hour or so over SW Scotland, going for walk in the winter sunshine.

Temp 0.6C, DP 0.2C WC -4C

[cfallon]

That sounds promising for me but how come it's not on any of the forecasts? Gud to see you again swain clubber

[Backtrack]

The cold air is really starting to dig in now. We are down to 4.5C with moderate rain. Can see the odd very wet flake in the heavier bursts.

Very surprised there's no hail though, the instability is there.

[Snowstorm1]

Id be very happy with a 1cm covering here!