Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

Anybody got any pics of these models for Friday?

Here you go...

[Adzyy]

Here you go...

Cheers, looking promising. Everything crossed here!

[Staffordshire]

What sort of depths could we be looking at?

[the lad sharp]

Probably somewhere between zero and none knowing our luck

[phil nw.]

Well, blink and you missed it sums up the snow potential from this little cold snap, and it certainly was chilly outside today...Looking further afield, what has caught my eye is the 12z ECM model run (admittedly only one specific run) which shows a secondary Low pressure sliding down the western side of the uk on friday into the English Channel on saturday...As already mentioned in the Model Discussion Thread, this could be a snow event for the Midlands...Definitely worth keeping an eye on the model outputs for the next few runs to see if this particular ECM run gains any support

Tonights fax`s should show if the Met.are interested in the modelled secondary low showing on the ECM12z here

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

Thicknesses just a little high on that chart i reckon but any higher ground could well see some snow,for the rest of us more likely sleet or cold rain.

[Gord]

I think if it does come off, its likely to be snow for higher ground only I think.

Today has been glorious but chilly. I feel like we're being slowly eased into winter this year in the Midlands. Starting with a couple of chilly mornings in late November...then something a little bit colder yesterday and today..and then maybe something a little bit colder still next weekend. Nothing bone-chilling yet.

[A.J]

Tonights fax`s should show if the Met.are interested in the modelled secondary low showing on the ECM12z here

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1201.gif

Thicknesses just a little high on that chart i reckon but any higher ground could well see some snow,for the rest of us more likely sleet or cold rain.

Yes indeed it may well be Phil...My eyes are quite what they used to be but it looks like the 500-100hpa thickness of between 528-534 DAM which would be probably just the wrong side of marginal for lower elevations, with T850's of around -5C....Still, in what has been an otherwise slow start to the winter season for us all, it's nice to have charts showing potential at a reasonable time frame...BTW any idea of when the FAX charts roll out?

[marksp]

come on fellow Midlanders, its been OK today. During work I had to drive up onto the A515 Ashbourne to Buxton Road, WOW, it was bad up there, roads white over and very icy. During the morning most of the B roads had 2 to 3inches, thats Wiksworth to Middleton Tops, although by 9.30am just tracks with snow down centre lines. Just been out in the car again 8.15pm up to beely moor, and its snowing heavy, gonner be some accumalations overnighht.

just heavy wet snow at my house, but only at 170mts, but check out my avatar picture, it was just like that this morning looking out the back door. Definatley deep enough for snowmen or sledging.

try and get some picture tommorrow, got to drive up into Peak District again

:p

[Gord]

Interesting how the showers further north are pushing through the Pennines with greater ease now. Shame the Welsh ones can't do the same. We had the wind for it yesterday as well. They just don't have the oomph to get here today. On the up side, it leaves us with a beautiful, clear and chilly evening. We've not had too many of those this Autumn.

..anyway, its fun to read the comments from our north-eastern colleagues in their thread as the showers start to make it over the Pennines!

[phil nw.]

Yes indeed it may well be Phil...My eyes are quite what they used to be but it looks like the 500-100hpa thickness of between 528-534 DAM which would be probably just the wrong side of marginal for lower elevations, with T850's of around -5C....Still, in what has been an otherwise slow start to the winter season for us all, it's nice to have charts showing potential at a reasonable time frame...BTW any idea of when the FAX charts roll out?

Usually around 10.30-11.00pm for the latest T96 and T120hrs--i use Meteoceil-they seem to get them pretty quickly.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

was slippy this morning, my first sub zero minimum of 11-12 season at 7pm, fell to -0.3C, now at 0.5C, but expect a slippy morning

[A.J]

Usually around 10.30-11.00pm for the latest T96 and T120hrs--i use Meteoceil-they seem to get them pretty quickly.

Thanks Phil....It's out to T72 currently on NW...synoptics look broadly the same at this time frame...I noticed on the previous run that at T120 (12z friday) the secondary LP was shown and was centered off northern Scotland with troughs spiraling into the Northern Isles and heading into Northern Ireland, the 12z ECM has this secondary LP further to the west

[phil nw.]

Thanks Phil....It's out to T72 currently on NW...synoptics look broadly the same at this time frame...I noticed on the previous run that at T120 (12z friday) the secondary LP was shown and was centered off northern Scotland with troughs spiraling into the Northern Isles and heading into Northern Ireland, the 12z ECM has this secondary LP further to the west

No problem mate,

Looking at the UKMO T120 12z it doesn`t show the secondary low featured on ECM

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif

usually the Met go with their raw output when drawing the fax`s--so i will be suprised if they do feature it.

[Summer of 95]

Bright blue skies most of the day- funny how we never get that in a WNW'ly in July or August when the SE is having a heatwave.

A 9pm under clear skies there's still no frost. S any snow would have to work wonders to settle.....

[Gord]

The breeze is slightly annoying. Not strong enough to get those Welsh showers to us, (although they are progressing a little further than before now), but not calm enough to let a frost develop.

Although, when you look at the overall pattern we're in, we're not doing too badly considering. Crystal clear night with temperatures hovering around 3 isn't too shabby for a west to north-westerly set up.

[Mrsf16]

Woohoo, I'm home Time for the annual "We didnt get any snow" moans hehehehe xxx

[A.J]

No problem mate,

Looking at the UKMO T120 12z it doesn`t show the secondary low featured on ECM

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1201.gif

usually the Met go with their raw output when drawing the fax`s--so i will be suprised if they do feature it.

Oh well, we live in hope! :smiliz19:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bright blue skies most of the day- funny how we never get that in a WNW'ly in July or August when the SE is having a heatwave.

A 9pm under clear skies there's still no frost. S any snow would have to work wonders to settle.....

because sun not stromg enough to create convection now, so remains clear, summer would likely be fully cloudy

[conor123]

Thursday Night remains hopeful for the first wintry weather of the season here, uppers of -6 and a perfect wind direction on the 18z.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs842.gif

Going on past winters luck though the wind direction will change to a Westerly and were get nout :lol:

[A.J]

GFS18z & FAX18z singing off the same hymn sheep, at least to my untrained eye...Doesn't look great for us up to T120, showery rain tomorrow, & again on thursday a few showers following then a WNW flow thursday night which will keep most showers away to the north of our region..A ridge of high pressure noses in from the SW on friday killing shower activity before giving way to atlantic frontal system saturday into sunday....So it seems regarding anything wintry on friday, its GFS & FAX/UKMO v's ECM......IMO

[Costa Del Fal]

Some showers have made it across the West Midlands overnight. Have any of you had a dusting of snow? Looks like a couple of flurries may have fallen here but quite hard to tell.

[Staffordshire]

Can confirm I've had a dusting

[cyclonic happiness]

Yeps! at about 5.50am last night we had a snow shower!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

look! and it's lasted till I get up!!!! :clap:

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Some showers have made it across the West Midlands overnight. Have any of you had a dusting of snow? Looks like a couple of flurries may have fallen here but quite hard to tell.

too mild, my temp reached 2.6C max in the night (assume when showers arrived), just shows PM air crap for low levels, but since sky cleared and now slippy

[A.J]

Yep, it certainly did snow last night....All the cars here have the frozen snow on the windscreens and a very icy/frozen snowy mess on the pavements making the trip of taking the kids to school a very hazardous exercise!!