Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[A.J]

interest is still there for a period from thursday night to saturday morning for parts of the west midlands & north midlands...The Met Office have issued an early severe weather warning for the West Midlands, more especially Staffs,Salop, & Cheshire...text as follows...

"Issued at - 06 Dec 2011, 12:04

Valid from - 08 Dec 2011, 18:00

Valid to - 09 Dec 2011, 23:59

Snow showers are expected late on Thursday and through Friday. The public should be aware that these will be heavy at times, and may give significant accumulations that could disrupt travel. Gale or severe gale force northwesterly winds will accompany the snow showers, perhaps leading to drifting over high ground, but these winds will slowly moderate during Friday"

© Met Office

[Costa Del Fal]

Not surprised the Met Office have issued that. Conditions look ripe for the Cheshire gap on Friday into Saturday. I think we had a couple of flurries last night but Friday could deliver the first proper snow showers now.

[A.J]

Not surprised the Met Office have issued that. Conditions look ripe for the Cheshire gap on Friday into Saturday. I think we had a couple of flurries last night but Friday could deliver the first proper snow showers now.

Looking promising at this stage Luke....There were a couple of decent snow showers that passed through the early hours leaving a coating in Penkridge, Cannock, & Cannock chase (looked very picturesque whilst driving up to see my suppliers earlier this morning!)

[chapmanraven]

It's great tp hear that some snow is making it into the midlands. Please, please, please, post photos, I have almost forgotten what the stuff looks like. No snow here, but despite being above freezing by the time I got up this morning, there was black ice on the paths. Walking the dogs was interesting to say the least. Doggies with four paw drive easily out maneuvered me. Thinking of harnesses and a sledge, but as they are only terriers I have dismissed the idea.

[andy_leics22]

Looking promising at this stage Luke....There were a couple of decent snow showers that passed through the early hours leaving a coating in Penkridge, Cannock, & Cannock chase (looked very picturesque whilst driving up to see my suppliers earlier this morning!)

Yesterday I posted a pessimistic post about there being no chance of snow for the Midlands up until maybe around Christmas but having seen the latest model runs it seems we could well have some Cheshire gap activity at the end of the week!

[Serendipity]

Yes I would think that areas with some elevation like the Lickey Hills for example, could see some accumulating snow at the end of the week. Cheshire Gap showers usually filter their way through to us but lose some intensity, although I think temps are against me here near Stratford anyway. A week ago I thought snow chances were way off though so shows how much things can change!

[Costa Del Fal]

I certainly would of thought temps would be good by night. The Dewpoint looks set to stay below 0c for Friday and most of Saturday, always crucial as to whether it s rain or snow that falls.

[tom_f123]

Had a light snow snow shower here this morning around 5am, left a little dusting.

Hopefully the Cheshire gap scenario comes to fruition later in the week.

[fizz511]

Do my eyes deceive me........... have the Met Office really posted a severe (snow) weather warning for the West Midlands for Thurs/Fri?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/solihull_forecast_weather.html

(Although a little confused, as it seems to come down as far as Birmingham and Solihull, but my MetO local weather forecast is showing light cloud and sun for that period!)

Ah well, a little hope is better than no hope.

Fizz

[Moomin]

Do my eyes deceive me........... have the Met Office really posted a severe (snow) weather warning for the West Midlands for Thurs/Fri?

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

(Although a little confused, as it seems to come down as far as Birmingham and Solihull, but my MetO local weather forecast is showing light cloud and sun for that period!)

Ah well, a little hope is better than no hope.

Fizz

I don't understand it either, the Met Office forcast for our bit of the area at risk is for rain and 10 degrees Thursday morning and light cloud or clear bright sunshine for Friday without sub zero temps??

[Serendipity]

The warning is for only a smallish area really though isn't it?

[andy_leics22]

Now, not meaning to jinx it here but if and that's a big IF at T96 this comes off... It would be almost perfect wind direction for Cheshire gap showers to blow into Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire, Coventry, Warwickshire, Derbyshire, Staffs, possibly Birmingham too.

[Eugene]

Looks like a rather chilly and dry pattern setting up for us midlanders, the occasional front but moving through quickly and then chilly and breezy with maybe some scattered wintry showers, wrong time of year really though for wintry showers with hail, much better in the spring with solar heating.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Loving the Met Office's 3 to 5 day outlook for the West Midlands: "Very windy with heavy rain on Thursday. Brighter but still windy on Friday, and cold with snow showers in places. Winds easing and snow dying out on Saturday."

Add to the fact the 12Z GFS shows uppers around -5 and below for then, then I feel any precipitation that falls could be a winty mix of hail, sleet and snow, but with the geatest chance of this occuing in the North of the region.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Cant see any cheshire gap effect end of this week, Ian Brown I know will agree, looks like winds will be too westerly, bringing snow through Stockport, then through to Derbyshire

[Costa Del Fal]

I would of thought its the wind direction at upper levels especially 850hPa level that matters more than the wind at lower levels. the 850 winds look much more Northerly for a time rather an Westerly. For example over the weekend into yesterday i think the wind here at ground level was more Westerly yet the upper winds driving the showers were more WNW to NW'ly.

[Adzyy]

To be honest, I'm thinking it'll be a more dry and sunny day on Saturday with the occassional flurry filtering through for this part of the Midlands. Hopefully I'm proved wrong.

[Gord]

I don't think there'll be much here. I think if we're lucky we'll see a flurry or two but we'll spend most of the time sadly looking at distant anvils drift along to our north...or our west.

Cheshire gap stuff is so fickle...I've been living in the West Midlands for 5 years now and I'm finding it misses a lot more than it hits.

Still..a proper cold blast and sub-zero temperatures are something that I think we will get. We are getting there slowly!

[cyclonic happiness]

Cant see any cheshire gap effect end of this week, Ian Brown I know will agree, looks like winds will be too westerly, bringing snow through Stockport, then through to Derbyshire

That could have been said for earlier today, but the showers got as far east as coventry.

[MKN]

Cant see any cheshire gap effect end of this week, Ian Brown I know will agree, looks like winds will be too westerly, bringing snow through Stockport, then through to Derbyshire

I cant see how based on current model predictions you can say that, as things stand the chance of the cheshire gap effecting the regions andy leics said is fairly high. Of course the showers generated in this set up tend to be fairly narrow and persistant with one area being in the firing line and 20miles one way or the other missing out all together

[Bolton67]

Cheshire Gap streamer is not very good for this part of the Midlands.

Now a wash streamer is top notch for here.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

That could have been said for earlier today, but the showers got as far east as coventry.

but in less cold air showers move further inland,

[cyclonic happiness]

I cant see how based on current model predictions you can say that, as things stand the chance of the cheshire gap effecting the regions andy leics said is fairly high. Of course the showers generated in this set up tend to be fairly narrow and persistant with one area being in the firing line and 20miles one way or the other missing out all together

One word 'troughs'.

[Gord]

OK, troughs would be good news for a lot of us in the West Midlands in that kind of air flow. Am I right in thinking that we can't tell if there will be any until nearer the time?

It may make me a little more optimisitc.

[A.J]

Cant see any cheshire gap effect end of this week, Ian Brown I know will agree, looks like winds will be too westerly, bringing snow through Stockport, then through to Derbyshire

With respect Mark, but sometimes your weather mood goes up and down more time than a nuns knickers, and with respect again, whilst Ian has a good knowledge of synoptic modelling, it's fair to say that there is often an underlying mild bias to his posts, remember last winter?..they'll be no snow near Stafford?..ring any bells? If memory serves me correctly you were quite vocal in disagreeing with his posts, and you were right!