3 Counties And East Anglia Regional Discussion Thread

[Mrsf16]

Thanks So still if butts and maybes. Thanks xxx

[shotski]

Ok - so it looks like the possibilities are:

1 - if the low heads through the channel then we are on the nothern side. Depending upon how much warm air is wrapped up in the mix, we could see snow, chances increasing as the low moves East and the colder air moves down. If the low is too far South we will be too far North of the main precipitation band.

2 - If the low moves more on a more northerly tack (say exiting over the Wash), then this would put us in the windier section with winds southerly, and then backing West eventually Northerly.

The system derives its energy from the difference between the temperatures (and therefore relative humidity) over the western Atlantic where it will form. The more energy in the system the more precipitation and wind, but also the further north its track will be.

What Low ? Have you seen the latest ECM run ?

[If Wishes made Weather]

I was wondering as well - I think that the 06 GFS also didn't really form it up completely. Lets see though, its the potential that's more concerning I think. Bear in mind though that our region is famous for being a sort of magical weather-free zone anyway.

[PurpleButterfly]

Wow what a day for weather extremes!!

We have had wind, rain, hail, sleet and snow!

Absolutely amazing

Looking forward to the winter getting a hold of the UK and bringing us lots of snow

[final dest]

hello all.

Back again for another winter.

Any news on what lies ahead for us over the next week or so. Have not yet renewed my extra account just yet, waiting for di money to arrive first.

Currently in colchester and have been watching wave after wave of showers heading in this direction but fizzle out over west london. Was hoping to see a sleet/snow flurry today but have been preparing the best window's in the house ready for the lampost watching to come in the coming days/weeks

[Hughsey]

Shower Heading my way, will only see the light northern edge of it though so doubt it will be wintry, under the heavy core it probably will be though.

any northampton people around, wondering if the shower is at all wintry?

Edited December 13, 2011 by hughsey

[Floatylight]

Hello everyone.mo just put us on cold weather alert level 2.

wintry showers and cold winds.From tues pm to sat.

[shotski]

Hello everyone.mo just put us on cold weather alert level 2.

wintry showers and cold winds.From tues pm to sat.

Can't see it myself, think they will change it tomorrow.

[Floatylight]

Dont they always!i used to get excited now i just wait and see.

I think it depends on how far south this storm is as to weather we catch the cold air on its northan flank.I defo no expert just reading the model forums lol.

[shotski]

Dont they always!i used to get excited now i just wait and see.

I think it depends on how far south this storm is as to weather we catch the cold air on its northan flank.I defo no expert just reading the model forums lol.

I think the storm at the end of the week has been slowly down graded, as you say we could get some decent cold on the back edge as it

passes through. For decent cold look to the new year and a scandi high developing

[Ben_Cambs]

It will be interesting to watch the modelling of the track of the low tomorrow. I suspect there will be changes in the track of the low throughout tomorrow's runs, and right up to T+0.

It reminds me of occasion in February 2010 (either 22nd or 23rd?) when there were very significant changes in the northern extent of a low. Originally, it was too far north for most of the region + 3 counties so as a result, it was forecast to rain with only some back-edge snow as the low cleared out. Then about 12-18 hours beforehand, the northern extent of the low was positioned slightly further south, so the far north of the region would see snow. However, just 6 hours before the event, the position of the low was modelled further south so the whole region (as far as I can remember) saw a period of snow on that day. Friday is a different set-up, though a slight change in the track of the low could be very significant for the worse or better. I feel some back edge snow is a fairly reasonable possibility though for now the chances of the front remaining mostly as snow are highly unlikely. Though this is based on the current output.

Friday will come into the range of the high-resolution NAE model tomorrow which among many options predicts precipitation type (rain/snow), so it will be interesting to see what it shows tomorrow for Friday.

http://www.weatheron...E=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Edited December 13, 2011 by Ben_Cambs

[final dest]

GFS 48 shows the low further south as oppose to the NAE charts at present. So the models do have disagreements with regards to the centre of the low.

So far I would prefer the GFS but will wait and see what tomorrow brings as we all know how rapidly things can change. Its certainly going to be a lively end to the week.

[Hughsey]

Met office now showing sleet or snow for thursday night and friday daytime for west of region, nice to see them getting on board with the idea.

[Heisenberg]

Met office now showing sleet or snow for thursday night and friday daytime for west of region, nice to see them getting on board with the idea.

Models chopping and changing too much to nail anything down even at this range....Hope the snow comes off, but dont think it will get far enough east for my neck of the woods....if it happens at all....waiting game...

[PurpleButterfly]

Yep MetO have my location down for light snow Thurs/Fri so will wait and see.

We got all sorts yesterday from sleet, snow, hail and rain. It was like a weather pick n mix :smiliz23:

[weatherwise]

The latest NAE model (which proved good last year I think) is estimating some snow (settling too) for Friday morning in the west of our region. I think these charts will chop and change so by no means certain

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis06/ukuk/prty/11121606_1406.gif

[Floatylight]

Yes i see it,just wish it would nudge further to the east a bit !

[Heisenberg]

The latest NAE model (which proved good last year I think) is estimating some snow (settling too) for Friday morning in the west of our region. I think these charts will chop and change so by no means certain

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2011/12/14/basis06/ukuk/prty/11121606_1406.gif

That chart shows it hitting some of our region, but as you say, i still think there is plenty of time for change. There is still alot of uncertainty on where the low is going to end up. Too far south and we get snow but little wind. Too far north and we get the wind with little snow...

Edited December 14, 2011 by lloydyd

[final dest]

The latest NAE model (which proved good last year I think) is estimating some snow (settling too) for Friday morning in the west of our region. I think these charts will chop and change so by no means certain

http://expert-images...121606_1406.gif

In my view that is a nice upgrade from yesterday.

[kold weather]

The further south the low gets the better for EA. i suspect the further west you are the better as well because as the tail arrives this far east we will be in the morning hours which will probably shift some to the wrong side of marginal. Also the cold air will likely start to finally weaken the front.

[final dest]

I am just hoping that the low gets further south so we can all get some of the white stuff.

This winter will be intresting for me as I have to constantly commute between west london and colchester but if the weather does get bad then I can stay at either location.

Will be waiting in anticipation for the latest charts. Hopefully both NAE and GFS will be in agreement on the position of the low.

Edited December 14, 2011 by final dest

[jojo]

Having a very wintry shower here in high wycombe at the mo

[final dest]

BBC have just released their forecast and its looking good. They are going for the low being further south.

[Hughsey]

Models chopping and changing too much to nail anything down even at this range....Hope the snow comes off, but dont think it will get far enough east for my neck of the woods....if it happens at all....waiting game...

Yeah I agree, just wanted to post it as its good to see them toying with the idea and first snow symbol of the season for me lol.

[Heisenberg]

So is the snow risk increasing for our area? Still seems to be up in the air (pardon the pun) at the moment. Friday morning looks to be the time to watch....

Edited December 14, 2011 by lloydyd