Model Output Discussion - 12th December Onward

[Slippery When White]

I think this is the only model we need to follow....it never over-does anything and is always spot on.....

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/289369

[Gavin Hannah]

I think this is the only model we need to follow....it never over-does anything and is always spot on.....

http://www.express.c...sts/view/289369

Well, there is def some further cold and snow for majority of scotland from tomorrow, but I think this is a bit OTT. Certainly not a deep freeze on par with previous two.

Edited December 12, 2011 by MadSnowboarder

[Fozfoster]

Well, there is def some further cold and snow for majority of scotland from tomorrow, but I think this is a bit OTT. Certainly not a deep freeze on par with previous two.

I think Hoops posted the link and quote a bit tongue in cheek fella.

[Upgrade]

I have seen FI within the 2-3 day range before, last december being a recent example of FI being so close.

With the currently predicted track of the storm over france i think something we need to keep an eye on is the posibility that this storm could stregnthen and track futher north bringing strong winds over southern counties.

that looks like the exact same track of the 87 storm. scary stuff.

[Tim Bland]

Lots of talk on here about the long term but what about the short term! MO have snow warnings for 100m+ for tonight and tommorow for half the uk including Midlands. There is a likelyhood of snow on the northern side of Fridays low which could mean the south. At the weekend there is a screaming northerly with snow showers for many! After that the models / ensembles go all over the place with lots of possible solutions. Lots of weather to come!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Edited December 12, 2011 by Tim Bland

[Snowstorm1]

Lots of talk on here about the long term but what about the short term! MO have snow warnings for 100m+ for tonight and tommorow for half the uk including Midlands. There is a likelyhood of snow on the northern side of Fridays low which could mean the south. At the weekend there is a screaming northerly with snow showers for many! After that the models / ensembles go all over the place with lots of possible solutions. Lots of weather to come!

Really?! I hadn't noticed the next few days potential :o

[Wilxy]

The 06z is never the most reliable of the 4 daily runs, but the evolution IMO beyond the weekend is a very safe bet given the NH profile.

i usally find the 00z or the 12z the best to follow.

Because thats what the ukmo and ecm update on.

[Harsh Climate]

The 06z is never the most reliable of the 4 daily runs, but the evolution IMO beyond the weekend is a very safe bet given the NH profile.

lol

Your saying that the 6z isn't the most reliable of runs but your still going to agree with it because it eventually shows a bartlett type set-up with mild south westerlies. Why do I get the feeling that if it showed a colder scenario you would be dismissing it because its the 6z and you don't find that the most reliable of the 4 runs??

I agree with you sometimes, but Its clear to see you just like winding people up

[gottolovethisweather]

Latest from the MetO concerning the predictable future, ie. no later than t+96.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited December 12, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Costa Del Fal]

If the models are correct like the GFS in taking this storm on Friday towards the Channel, could we be looking at a snow event for the Midlands possibly? GFS looks to hint at it but doesnt make too much of it. Suppose we will have to wait and see but a new potential has arisen for now it seems.

EDIT: Saying that, a hell of alot of model disagreements for Friday still so anything is possible.

Edited December 12, 2011 by Blizzards

[chionomaniac]

There is so much to deal with in the next five days that I am surprised any one has any time to look into FI!!

First we have tonights gales affecting coastal areas to the south, west and NW bringing heavy rain and flooding risk.

Then the depression slows and stalls crossing Scotland lading to prolonged storm force winds across NI and Scotland tomorrow.

Then eddys and secondary depressions circle the main trough and any one of these could lead to severe gales and downpours with a nasty looking shortwave looking to hit southern counties on Wednesday evening.

Then we have Thursday evening system which only needs to track a little further north to batter the south coast again. And by Saturday we are in a polar flow with the risk of wintriness extending south throughout the day.

What shall we concentrate on?

For me on the south coast the short wave crossing the southern counties on Wednesday evening could be the most vicious of the lot . What does the UKMO show?

Edited December 12, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Bobby]

Yikes, nasty storm from the UKMO. No downgrade there.

Big disgareement with the GFS.

[NickR]

So, UKMO has it north again - eye passes over border area/NEng - so pretty bad for mids/south.

ECM 12Z has it half way between GFS adn ECM.

Lots of uncertainty.

[shedhead]

There is so much to deal with in the next five days that I am surprised any one has any time to look into FI!!

First we have tonights gales affecting coastal areas to the south, west and NW bringing heavy rain and flooding risk.

Then the depression slows and stalls crossing Scotland lading to prolonged storm force winds across NI and Scotland tomorrow.

Then eddys and secondary depressions circle the main trough and any one of these could lead to severe gales and downpours with a nasty looking shortwave looking to hit southern counties on Wednesday evening.

Then we have Thursday evening system which only needs to track a little further north to batter the south coast again. And by Saturday we are in a polar flow with the risk of wintriness extending south throughout the day.

What shall we concentrate on?

For me on the south coast the short wave crossing the southern counties on Wednesday evening could be the most vicious of the lot . What does the UKMO show?

I think the reason FI might be getting a little more attention than normal right now is the fact it contains Xmas...just a thought

Have to agree with your general premiss though, loads going on in the short to medium term, but despite there being a veritable smorgasbord of weather on offer the luxury item everyone wants to see is conspicuous by it's absence.

Edited December 12, 2011 by shedhead

[feb1991blizzard]

So, UKMO has it north again - eye passes over border area/NEng - so pretty bad for mids/south.

ECM 12Z has it half way between GFS adn ECM.

Lots of uncertainty.

ECM 12 not out yet.

[NickR]

ECM 12 not out yet.

I was about to edit that to 00z... give us a chance!

[johnholmes]

Latest from the MetO concerning the predictable future, ie. no later than t+96.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

yes it does agree with much I posted yesterday to try and explain how the process of forecasting is done-post 1218 I think?

[chionomaniac]

I suspect that the storm on Friday will have a more northerly path than the 12Z suggests. If I remember last week the Scotland storm was dropped slightly south for a while before final correction. With the UKMO further north I am inclined to go for somewhere in between.

[Tom Quintavalle]

Hi Chiono,

Agree with you re Weds night, could be a real joker in the pack. South coast might just get away with it, with strongest winds in the the Channel and across N.France but a shift 50/100 miles north of that short/wave could see some very strong winds along the south coast. Will zip through very quickly but certainly something to keep an eye on. As you state, so much going on at the moment, with tonights event and then all eyes on Thurs/Fri.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn601.png

Regards,

Tom.

[Isolated Frost]

The German FAX on the low tomorrow... the low on Thursday and Friday looks very potent on the Sembach aswell.

[Tim Bland]

I'm supprised there isn't more discussion on the snow potential tonight and tomorrow!? Can any experts give their view? This is the latest forecast for central areas tomorrow from the met at 1530;

Showers, sometimes as snow to low levels, with some settling on hills. Some more persistent snow in western areas. Eastern areas drier and brighter.

[Summer Sun]

I'm supprised there isn't more discussion on the snow potential tonight and tomorrow!? Can any experts give their view? This is the latest forecast for central areas tomorrow from the met at 1530;

Showers, sometimes as snow to low levels, with some settling on hills. Some more persistent snow in western areas. Eastern areas drier and brighter.

The Met office have yellow warnings out for me as well most of the snow is expected above 100m (10cm or more could fall) but some slushy deposits can be expected at lower levels.

[Weather-history]

Odd looking UKMO 144hr chart with that low to the WSW of Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Edited December 12, 2011 by Mr_Data

[cyclonic happiness]

Odd looking UKMO 144hr chart with that low to the WSW of Ireland

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif

Why do you think it looks odd?

[Zakos]

I'm supprised there isn't more discussion on the snow potential tonight and tomorrow!? Can any experts give their view? This is the latest forecast for central areas tomorrow from the met at 1530;

Showers, sometimes as snow to low levels, with some settling on hills. Some more persistent snow in western areas. Eastern areas drier and brighter.

Wow! I was not aware that there even was a snow risk! I thought the warnings were for wind! Looks pretty likely I could see snow!!!

Tbh, everyone is focused on FrIdays storm. It has the potential to be extremely severe, the snow is not of as much concern/