Tropical Storm Washi

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed a few hundred miles east of the Philippines. Convection is persisting over an increasingly well defined LLC. Intensity is 25kts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days as shear remains low, waters warm (29-30C), and outflow fair. Ridging to the north will ensure a generally westwards track with slight northwards bias. This means that 27W will likely be a typhoon making landfall on the southern Philippines in 3-4 days time. Weakening will occur as 27W interacts with land, but the system is likely to re-intensify once it reaches the South China Sea.

[Somerset Squall]

27W has been slow to strengthen, but it has at last become Tropical Storm Washi, with intensity now at 35kts. Shear is low and waters warm, which should allow further strengthening. However, Washi is moving westwards at a brisk speed of 20kts and probably doesn't have time to become a typhoon now prior to landfall in the southern Philippines. Weakening will occur when Washi passes over land, but re-intensification is no longer expected over the South China Sea as the area is plagued by dry, cold northeasterlies. Instead, Washi will continue to weaken as it approaches southern Vietnam.

[Somerset Squall]

Washi is making landfall in the southern Philippines as a 50kt tropical storm. Weakening will occur over land but Washi may temporarily restrengthen in the eastern South China Sea (SCS). Once Washi reaches the central and west SCS, weakening will occur due to increased shear and cold, dry air. If the system does make it into the North Indian Ocean, there won't be much left of it.

[Somerset Squall]

Washi held itself together over land and has caused hundreds of deaths and widespread, devestating flooding to the area.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/philippines/8962900/Hundreds-die-as-tropical-storm-Washi-sweeps-across-Philippines.html

Washi peaked at 55kts but has weakened to 45kts. Some restrengthening is forecast before the environment deteriorates and causes Washi to weaken over the western SCS.

[knocker]

Nearly 600 dead and missing in storm 'Sendong'

ILIGAN, Philippines - Tropical storm Sendong (international name Washi) raked across the southern Philippines, unleashing mammoth floods across vast areas that left 180 people dead and nearly 400 others missing, officials said Saturday.

They said 20,000 soldiers had been mobilized in a huge rescue and relief operation across the stricken north coast of the island of Mindanao, where the major ports of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan were worst hit.

Iligan mayor Lawrence Cruz described rampaging floodwaters from swollen rivers that swamped up to a quarter of the land area of the city of 100,000.

"It's the worst flood in the history of our city," Cruz told a local television. "It happened so fast, at a time when people were fast asleep."

http://www.abs-cbnne...g-storm-sendong

[Somerset Squall]

Washi restrengthened slightly but is now weakening and intensity is at 45kts again. Convection is still fairly deep but is displaced from the LLC due to increasing shear. Washi is now moving southwestwards as the storm becomes shallower and more influenced by low level steering flow, which is driven by northeasterly monsoonal winds. These winds are dry and cool, which will further contribute to the weakening trend of Washi.

[cornishbrooksy]

Did not expect to see something spin up so late in the year...and looks like neither did the Phillipines.

Great shame to see such massive loss of life...shows that even these tropical storms shouldnt be messed with regardless of their strength.

[Coast]

http://youtu.be/7HhoMpLRnDU

Hundreds remain missing in southern Mindanao region

* Many villages destroyed by mud and flood waters

* Survivors rescued after being swept out to sea

CAGAYAN DE ORO, Philippines, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Disaster agencies on Monday rushed to deliver body bags, food, water, and medicine to crowded evacuation centres in the southern Philippines as officials considered digging mass graves for hundreds killed in weekend flash floods. The national disaster agency said 533 died and 309 remain missing, while the local Red Cross put the toll at 652 killed and more than 800 missing.

Casualties from the flashfloods exceeded the more than 450 people killed in 2009 when a tropical storm dumped heavy rains on the main Luzon island, inundating nearly the entire capital Manila. Typhoon Washi slammed ashore in the Mindanao region of the Philippines while residents slept at the weekend, sending torrents of water and mud through riverside villages and sweeping houses out to sea.

In the aftermath, radio stations and local governments have been deluged by calls and appeals from survivors asking for help to bury the dead or find missing relatives. "My suggestion is, so that illnesses won't spread, let's have mass graves," Benito Ramos, head of the national disaster agency, said in a radio interview. "This will be the discretion of local governments and the DOH (Department of Health)." "From the helicopter, we saw four major river systems, all houses along the riverbanks were totally destroyed."

Josephine Dalangin, a resident of Cagayan de Oro, said she and three other residents, including a boy, survived by clinging on a tree trunk for 11 to 12 hours while floating in the sea before they were rescued by a passing boat.

"I did not feel hunger, I did not feel any thirst," Dalangin told a local radio station. "I just prayed to the Lord that the rains, winds and waves would stop."

The cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, worst hit by the disaster, are running out of evacuations centres and coffins for the dead, with churches also converted into temporary evacuation. Brigadier General Roland Amarille, head of an army task force in Iligan, said on Sunday soldiers had been mobilized to recover bodies and build coffins. "We need body bags and lime to deal with too many cadavers," Amarille said, fearing an outbreak of disease.

"Local mortuaries are no longer accepting cadavers and they are even asking people to bury the dead at once because there are too many bodies even in hallways." Mindanao island, the southernmost in the Philippines, is a mineral-rich region that also produces rice and corn but is not normally in the path of an average 20 typhoons that hit the Southeast Asian country each year

http://www.reuters.c...E7NJ0LG20111219

[Somerset Squall]

Did not expect to see something spin up so late in the year...and looks like neither did the Phillipines.

Great shame to see such massive loss of life...shows that even these tropical storms shouldnt be messed with regardless of their strength.

Agreed, that's the nature of the Western Pacific. Tropical Cyclones can form ANY time of year in this basin, though it's normally quieter Jan-Apr. I think the Philippines were caught off guard as you say by the expectations of this time of year.

Prime example of the above is cat 5 Super Typhoon Mitag in 2002, which formed late FEBRUARY:

From UNISYS

[Somerset Squall]

Thanks for the info and video Coast. Really shows how much devestation can occur even with relatively weak storms (Washi's peak was 55kts), especially if there is little or no evacuation/preparation.

[Coast]

Unfortunately the death toll is rising and this morning I heard it was up to 950, with hundreds still missing. Very sobering for such a relatively weak storm, apparently the ground was already saturated and the flood waters just had nowhere to go.

[Somerset Squall]

Although Washi was a compact storm, the inner core convection was intense. Up to 400mm (16 inches) of rain fell in ONE NIGHT across the northwest coast of Mindanao, south Philippines.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Washi.html

As you say Coast, latest death toll is 957 with many people still missing. Washi is the deadliest tropical cyclone worldwide for 2011, quite remarkable considering it's modest strength.

[Coast]

As you say Coast, latest death toll is 957 with many people still missing.

I'm afraid it gets worse:

Philippine President Benigno Aquino declared a state of national calamity on Tuesday, as authorities work to recover the bodies of those killed by flash floods on the southern island of Mindanao. Disaster agency officials said Tuesday that 957 people have died so far as a result of the floods which began in the early hours of Saturday, while 49 others remain missing. Officials said most of the damage was done in the southern port cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, where mass graves are being prepared for hundreds of unidentified victims.

Iligan City Mayor Lawrence Cruz told the Reuters news agency the mass graves are necessary to prevent the spread of disease as a result of the decomposing bodies. "We have decided, after consultation with our city health officer, that we should start digging graves for the bodies and bury them temporarily because they are already in an advanced state of decomposition," he stated. "People nearby might get sick if we do not bury the bodies.' Officials have also reported a shortage of water and food at the island's overcrowded, makeshift evacuation centers. Almost 50,000 people who lost their homes remain in public shelters.

The flooding was caused by tropical storm Washi, which swept through the southern Philippines Friday evening, dropping a month's worth of rain in 24 hours. Romeo Lozano, a farmer who reportedly saved 200 lives, told the Associated Press how people escaped the fury of the floods by rushing to his house rooftop. "If I had not opened our gate, many people would have died because they were already waiting and wanted to go upstairs. When I opened it, they all rushed to go inside our house, there is a roof top and we were all safe there. 200 of them, mostly children and elderly," he said. About 143,000 people were affected in 13 southern and central provinces. The Office of Civil Defense says some 7,000 houses were swept away, destroyed or damaged.

http://www.voanews.c...-135937703.html

[Somerset Squall]

Truly awful

[Cookie]

very tragic

[Somerset Squall]

Death toll has continued to rise and now stands at 1,236, and that's just bodies that have been recovered. The actual toll is probably much higher as there is many more missing.

http://www.chron.com/news/article/More-bodies-found-far-away-from-Philippine-floods-2425087.php

[milkmaid]

so sad

[Coast]

Almost 1,500 people are now known to have died in flash floods that struck the southern Philippines more than a week ago. Officials say more bodies had been found in the waters south of the island of Mindanao. It is not clear how many people are still missing but officials say the search for bodies will continue.

Typhoon Washi struck from 16 to 18 December, devastating the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan. Many of those who died were sleeping as Typhoon Washi caused rivers to burst their banks, leading to landslides. Entire villages were washed away. The civil defence office said the number of people now known to have died had risen to 1,453 after 200 more bodies were found in the water. Ana Caneda, the regional civil defence chief, told AFP news agency that they expected to find more. "There are still a lot of areas we have examined that are stinking of dead bodies," she told the agency. "We don't know how many people are buried under that mud."

The national disaster agency said it could take up to six months to build temporary housing for the 60,000 who are now homeless in the wake of the storm. Many of them are currently taking temporary shelter in school buildings. The chairman of the Philippine Red Cross, Richard Gordon, told the BBC that providing long-term housing was a challenge. "Right now, what they (flood victims) are in need of is transitional housing," he said, adding that they would have to move out of school buildings and into tent cities by 3 January when classes start. "The problem is land. We need to have safe land, land that will not be threatened by any earthquake or any floods or any landslides," said Mr Gordon.

Aid agencies have appealed for funds to help those who are affected. The United Nations is seeking $28.6m (£18.2m) from donors to help provide water and sanitation to storm victims

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16336706