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Model Output Discussion - 19th - 25th December


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire
  • Location: Southampton, Hampshire

Interesting shift in the 06Z GFS. After 26th, cold air now flooding S over Scandinavia and HP over Greenland, warming over Canada, suggests as I mentioned earlier, upper trough digging SE to the E of Canada, warm ridge pushing N towards Greenland, HP starting to build to the N of the UK. Bit far ahead to be trusted but certainly a different trend.

Didn't last long though!

Whether it's always true or not I don't know, but the GFS seems to be continually defaulting to a SW flow beyond a certain point, perhaps 10 days or so. I think it's definitely picking up a trend here after Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire
  • Location: Half way between Doncaster and Barnsley south yorkshire

Better from the 6z,high pressure building from the atlantic Northwards into Greenland ,also the polar vortex dissruted and intensity transferring to northern Russia as i posted about yesterday.One run albeit but first positive sign for a while.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

There maybe some cooler runs starting to appear but GFS still shows HP near the UK right out to the end of FI it will be cool at times but nothing much in the way of snow apart from the high ground in the far north, yes there is the odd brief cool spell but it soon get's shifted out the way

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3241.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3481.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3721.png

Until those FI charts lose the high pressure I wouldn't get to hopeful

Edited by Gavin D
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

There maybe some cooler runs starting to appear but GFS still shows HP over the UK right out to the end of FI it will be cool at times but nothing much in the way of snow apart from the high ground in the far north, yes there is the odd brief cool spell but it soon get's shifted out the way

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2761.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3241.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3481.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3721.png

Until those FI charts lose the high pressure I wouldn't get to hopeful

They are what they are though mate. Fantasy Island, unlikely to verify.

What we want to be looking for if it's prolonged cold we want, is high pressure to the West of the UK, this creates blocking in the Atlantic, and the clockwise rotation of the pressure system drags Northerly winds over the UK.

You'll find we'll probably see this in mid January, but posting charts in FI can't be deemed accurate, things can change in the blink of an eye.

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 06z may look a horrific run for coldies but temps don't look that mild, even with a mainly swly flow, temps just a fraction above average in central and eastern areas for most of the time but rather milder in the west and north more exposed to the atlantic influences and with more rain and windy at times in nw britain. It looks very mild tomorrow and thursday with temps of 11-13c quite widely, then friday looks colder with a brief nwly flow before winds back more to the sw during xmas eve with temps rising again and a fairly mild christmas day, maybe a bit cooler on boxing day but then mildish again between xmas and new year. The models are frustrating today because they show a lot of bitter cold well to the north of the uk but sadly with no sign of it spreading towards us, even into the new year it looks like average to mild temps in control with no sign of a proper cold spell evolving for a while yet. It's disappointing that the anticyclone is not expected to build into the uk as that would have brought a lot of frost and fog at this time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

What we want to be looking for....

is to perhaps look for the weather? Wanting warm or cold weather will not make it happen or appear in the models. If those charts of Gavin's are in FI then treat them as just that... Most people just want to come in here and read what the models are suggesting for the next week or so and be able to have an idea about the likely outcome. This isn't a "get at" you as there are many others that fail to see the purpose of this thread. I picked your post because I'm a lazy git and yours is at the end of the thread.

Christmas and new year are coming up. Does anyone know how the weather will unfold over the next seven days and use the model output to demonstrate how It's going? There are hundreds of people out there who read this thread every hour and I'm sure they'd be thankful for a rolling seven day breakdown as well as the cold/warm debates.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

... Most people just want to come in here and read what the models are suggesting for the next week or so and be able to have an idea about the likely outcome.

Just like my post did :)

It can be difficult on here because there is such a huge cold bias and when you tell it how it is, some people just don't like it, for example the way the models are showing a mild christmas, sad but no point in sugar coating a mild outlook with promises of things that are not there.

Edited by Polar_ Low
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

An Ian Brown special on the GFS Ops 12Z.. :help: . High pressure dominating with a SW-NE tilted jet almost throughout. At least we'll be saving on those heating bills.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Well if anyone can be upbeat about FI in GFS I want what they are on. Dross for the next 21 days. Lets not beat about the bush, its awful. With little hope further into January we are facing mild-armagedeon ad nauseam.

Bring on Winter 2012/13.

Wheres my sun lotion?

Missing you already...see you next November.

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Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands

Well the GFS 12z is really stuck in a rut. Flirts with something better mid run but then the rut returns with avengance. No sign of any change until far FI.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

If the high pressure Iberia and France would shift further south the floodgates for cold air would open with all the cold building to the North it could be just a matter of time now till something cold starts to show in a decent time frame

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png

But unless the Jet stream shifts then it's curtains for winter

http://hw.nwstatic.c.../348/hgt300.png

You can guarantee come summer it will head flaming south like always instead of being where it is now :angry::wallbash:

Edited by Gavin D
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An Ian Brown special on the GFS Ops 12Z.. :help: . High pressure dominating with a SW-NE tilted jet almost throughout. At least we'll be saving on those heating bills.

Yes truly ghastly winter charts if you want cold and snow.

On the upside they can't possibly get any worse so it's all upwards from here!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Truly horrific 12z GFS Operational - let's hope for better from the Ensembles and ECM, but I would have to say that cold/snow prospects for much of lowland Britain look minimal for the next 2 weeks at least, possibly longer.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

Straw to clutch onto (for coldies) perhaps: the operational is one of the midler solutions in FI.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

If you've ever wondered what a real 'Bartlett' setup is then look at the 12z. High pressure to the south of the UK with long-draw south-westerlies bringing >5C 850hPa air.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png

The jet stream is well to the North of the UK on a SW/NE trajectory allowing little ridging Northwards and reinforcing the pattern.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn16814.png

The furthest away from the setup we get is this:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2521.png

before it all resets again:

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3601.png

A pretty rotten pattern for cold weather and a setup common in the mildest winter months. The only plus side is in such a setup it might actually be quite bright as well as mild in the south-eastern quarter, though north-western areas would be dull and damp.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

There`s one or two posts which are rather curt and do not really discuss the models properly.

Please save your whining for the appropiate thread if you don`t like the output.

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Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
Posted (edited) · Hidden by phil nw., December 20, 2011 - brief moaning is not Mod. discussion
Hidden by phil nw., December 20, 2011 - brief moaning is not Mod. discussion

Wow. South Westerlies sourced all the way from Africa. It doesn't get much worse.... :help:

Wake me up in a couple of weeks.. :lazy:

Edited by phil n.warks.
Brief moaning is not model discussion
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Posted
  • Location: Shaldon, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow !!!!
  • Location: Shaldon, Devon

Interesting ensembles, looking like a cool down in FI at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Interesting ensembles, looking like a cool down in FI at the moment.

It would be usefull if you could elaborate Rug--maybe post a link etc.

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

As others have said, classic Bartlett conditions likely in the foreseeable now, 13, 14 perhaps even some 15c maxes possible at times between now and New Year, in what is shaping up to be a potentially lengthy mild/very mild spell. Some hope in FI that pressure begins to rise a little father north, but any cold pattern still seems a very long way away, 2 weeks at least I'd imagine based on the current outputs.

On a positive note, at least the evenings start pulling out after tomorrow, the heating will be more off than on across the next fortnight and the currently sodden ground should begin to dry out a bit. Every cloud and all that.. :p

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Interesting ensembles, looking like a cool down in FI at the moment.

A lot of ensemble members seem to go for a northerly around the 28th. In fact it would appear that the operational keeps the mildest air furthest north. So, by no means locked in Bartlett conditions just yet.

post-4523-0-42519900-1324405441_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl

As others have said, classic Bartlett conditions likely in the foreseeable now, 13, 14 perhaps even some 15c maxes possible at times between now and New Year, in what is shaping up to be a potentially lengthy mild/very mild spell. Some hope in FI that pressure begins to rise a little father north, but any cold pattern still seems a very long way away, 2 weeks at least I'd imagine based on the current outputs.

On a positive note, at least the evenings start pulling out after tomorrow, the heating will be more off than on across the next fortnight and the currently sodden ground should begin to dry out a bit. Every cloud and all that.. :p

I'm struggling to see where you're getting two weeks of very mild temperatures from? The GFS Ensembles suggest a cool down next week, with wintry showers for some - even the GFS 12hz would see temperatures supressed under any cloud, especially in the NW, whereas in the SE temperatures could fall away quite readily in clear spells as pressure is quite high at times. The lengthening days certainly won't make any difference until well into February anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

"Horrific"? "Ghastly"? "Dross"? Not for all of us it isn't!

Doesn't help the casual observer of this thread IMO. hey-ho.

Overall pattern is set for the foreseeable... temps depending on how far north the HP sits.. south could be colder under quiet anticyclonic conds, otherwise average/mild for all.

Things can change very suddenly though, so I'm still not looking beyond 5 days or so.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Yes, we really are heading towards what looks like a genuine "Bartlett High" scenario with the high coming into place by Christmas Eve and then refusing to shift this side of T+180. The colder GEFS and ECMWF ensemble runs have the high shunted out of the way after that, allowing some average or cold zonality, but the chances of it coming off are only 50-50 at most IMHO in view of the models' tendency to overdeepen lows and overdo the southern penetration of cold air. The notable cold pooling to the north is a common feature in this kind of setup, e.g. February 1998 was exceptionally cold across a region extending from Iceland to northern Russia.

The tropical maritime incursion for the next couple of days has been toned up by the latest model runs, so maxima of 10-12C are likely, and most areas will probably end up grey and drizzly although the GFS run suggests some sunshine coming through in central and eastern parts of England on Thursday. A polar maritime incursion on Friday may bring some wintry showers to western and northern Scotland, and scattered rain showers further south down the western side.

After that, mild cloudy damp weather will extend down from the north-west, but many parts of England look set to have a mostly dry sunny day on Christmas Eve with temperatures not far from the seasonal average, and the southeast may hold onto this weather type during Christmas Day. As Reef mentioned several posts ago, sometimes eastern and southern parts of England get a fair amount of sunshine from this setup (the notorious Bartlett-dominated months of January 1989 and February 1998 were good examples). If the UKMO/ECM verify then it could well happen again around the 26th-28th December with a fair amount of warm sunshine towards the SE, but the GFS has high pressure further west and south which would promote overcast weather even in the southeast.

It must be stressed, though, that this pattern is by no means guaranteed to last beyond the New Year.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I'm struggling to see where you're getting two weeks of very mild temperatures from? The GFS Ensembles suggest a cool down next week, with wintry showers for some - even the GFS 12hz would see temperatures supressed under any cloud, especially in the NW, whereas in the SE temperatures could fall away quite readily in clear spells as pressure is quite high at times. The lengthening days certainly won't make any difference until well into February anyway.

Cloud would be the key to very mild temperatures, especially at night.. the 12z IS a very mild run, and the ensembles don't suggest a cool down, they suggest a horrible mess of confusion and lack of agreement.

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Posted
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs
  • Location: Burntwood, Staffs
Posted · Hidden by chionomaniac, December 20, 2011 - adds nothing to the discussion
Hidden by chionomaniac, December 20, 2011 - adds nothing to the discussion

"On a positive note, at least the evenings start pulling out after tomorrow, the heating will be more off than on across the next fortnight and the currently sodden ground should begin to dry out a bit. Every cloud and all that"

Sodden ground?

I'd like some of that.

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