What Are Your 'gut Feelings' Of The Winter?

[chris55]

Remember people, the term "even larger teapot" has most definitely disappeared from all weather sites these past few years, and rightly so. This to me says those calling mild right through till March should tred with care, maybe in the mild winters of the christmas pudding such a call might be right but I'll reserve judgement for the time being.

We'll find out in April if the term may be re-instated . But my gut feeling is mid Jan onwards will be cold with snow potential, though it may come earlier than that.

^^^^^lol :rofl: "modern ~era" has been classed as a swear word or the like and has been replaced with Christmas pudding!!!!!

(by the way I don't believe in the term was just using it to highlight my point)

Edited December 20, 2011 by chris55

[Don]

And while people are currently saying "The past three winters have shown us that the weather in the UK is still capable of bringing up widespread, sustained cold and snowfall.", unfortunately we may soon be saying "This winter has shown us that the last few winters is not a new trend of colder winters similar to those seen years ago."

I agree. We may well be and that's why I and I'm sure most others made the most of the last few years because we could soon be back in a pre-2008 like period of mild winters or worse!

[leicsnow]

I agree. We may well be and that's why I and I'm sure most others made the most of the last few years because we could soon be back in a pre-2008 like period of mild winters or worse!

And it will be much worse for them after experiencing three colder winters!

It would make the last two go down in history as just two consecutive intense cold winters in a long, mild run.

Anyway, back on topic, I've suddenly got a gut feeling that there will be some change mid-Jan.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Tellow

[seabreeze86]

My hunch is that we will have a more high pressure dominated second half of winter bringing much colder and dryer conditions in febuary the start of march. I also think we will see a failed easterly attemped in mid january, just a educated guess thow from what i have seen on various forecast sites.

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

Fairly mild - I think Ian Brown gave a statistic the other day about few cold winter months followed after a relatively mild December (in recent times). Model watching at the moment isn't fantatstic.

[legritter]

my GUT feeling is a winter of a quick change artist . i truly think that the weather is about to go nuts ,in the northern hemisphere , not before christmas but around the new year .when i say nuts i dont mean 63 or 47 ,but a total mix of every severe wintry spell possible but in smaller doses . i get this gut feeling because iv just spent a week going through every winter since 1600 s , and theres something about the recent cool zonal we have just had and that low up the channel that tells me ,it was just a teese , and mother nature is just having a rest .i think the ECM will pick up on it first , this euro or bartlett thing could be the computers picking up on something , among those billions of bits of the puzzle ,eventually the HIGH appears in a different place ,cheers gang , ps had one centimetre of snow last week ,who would have thought that 3 weeks ago .

[Aaron]

Fairly mild - I think Ian Brown gave a statistic the other day about few cold winter months followed after a relatively mild December (in recent times). Model watching at the moment isn't fantatstic.

So far, December has hardly been mild. In fact, for most northern areas, December is running below average.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Aaron

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

So far, December has hardly been mild. In fact, for most northern areas, December is running below average.

Yes I know, mabye after the next week or so of mild conditions - I think we'll have a positive anomoly CET wise

[mandi35]

i had some on friday which it wasnt forecasted for the north west they had us down for 95mph winds here and look what happened we had snow i think at then moment we should take it day by day and see what the weather brings each day my dog was born 17th dec 9 years ago and the past 3 winters here i have been snowed in on his birthday ok it was 1 day early this year but he still played in in with the other dog like a mad march hare i wouldnt write off winter just yet but then again we have seen some snow in march and april before now i remember going to a wedding in april where the day b4 the big day we had snow down midlands and the day itself was warm and sunny weather now a days are so iunpredictable

[Bristawl Si]

My gut feeling is the same as my non-scientific 'forecast' from a month or so ago, which was all of 3 lines.

I based it on my 'law of UK Winter averages' theory - mild in south, cool/cold in the North. Snowy outbreaks chiefly confined to north of the Midlands.

3 half-decent winters (in terms of cold and snow) down here means a mild one for us Bristolians this winter.

Just a hunch, no science involved.

Loved to be proved wrong come mid-March though. :lol:

[stewfox]

Ian Brown certainly right, looks like no snow for at least 6 weeks here, as Ian says, this takes some shifting, but hopefully it will be mostly dry, high pressure dominating for the whole of Jan to the S and SE, most likely

Its funny there was zero percent chance of any snow at low level in the UK for mid December forecast by many mid November, people just dont learn T800 is FI for a reason.

Edited December 20, 2011 by stewfox

[mandi35]

Its funny there was zero percent chance of any snow at low level in the UK for mid December forecast by many mid November, people just dont learn T800 is FI for a reason.

well i had some last friday here in the north west and im at low level im 125asl we had so many different warnings first it was we could see snow end of october never came then it was something else and then something else never came and it wasnt forecasted for snow last friday which was forecasted apparently the high winds was back and we would have 95mph winds, papers said we would be in for a white xmas now they changing thier minds u just dont know what to believe

[mountain shadow]

Personally I haven't a clue. You have to put your faith in what the likes of GP and Chino think may happen during January but be realistic that it may not come off.

On the plus side some were saying that we could never experience a bitter cold month like we did in December 2010 in the even larger teapot.

[jean91]

So far, December has hardly been mild. In fact, for most northern areas, December is running below average.

Here in France some stations are still managing a good anomaly as for example Bordeaux- Mérignac average night temp 7.9c ( plus 4.1c)

and average daytime max 13.7c ( plus 3c)

Makes it the warmest first 2 decades for a December month before and since 2002.Nationaly the anomaly was just a touch below 4c for the first 15days.

It surely went down a bit after this weekend .

Edited December 20, 2011 by jean91

[A Winter's Tale]

It would make the last two go down in history as just two consecutive intense cold winters in a long, mild run.

Well duh! 2009/2010 was the 2nd coldest winter in Scotland since records began, 2010/2011 was one of the coldest too. This suggests that those winters were exceptional and it's quite obvious that our winters in the UK do go through mild periods considering our position in comparison to the rest of Europe and our neighbouring countries.. Honestly, I sure don't know how some of you southern folk will cope if we don't see any improvements in the stratosphere. And Tellow, don't panic yet about the prospects of cold and snow. Patience is what you need as there are two more full months of winter left. You just need to wait and see how it pans out and I'm sure that we'll all see snow this winter.

However I've got to admit that I would find it unbearable to live in southern England with no snow since December 2010, whereas here we've had so much snow. And if things don't improve in the atmosphere then for some it could end up being 2 years (or more) with no snow. The contrasting attitudes in this forum is quite staggering between north and south. It just shows how things have been lately.

However it isn't all doom and gloom:

2009: January - Cold, February - Cold start, December - Cold

2010: January - Very Cold, February - Cold, November - Very Cold End, December - Very Cold

2011: .............

What I'm seeing is that the winter months of the calender year have had similar characteristics and features in recent years. 2010 had a theme of very cold and snowy weather, 2011 has had a theme of snowless weather (however it's a very different scenario up north). Who knows what 2012 will bring.

[damianslaw]

Gut feeling this winter will be very traditional in the sense the coldest conditions will be reserved for the mid jan-mid feb period with increasing chance of cold blocking highs and easterlies as the winter wears on - the last three decembers have definately not been the norm, look back at the winters of the 70's and 80's very few cold decembers.

Also believe we are long overdue a cold spring - worth a flutter on a white easter I say..

[leicsnow]

Well duh! 2009/2010 was the 2nd coldest winter in Scotland since records began, 2010/2011 was one of the coldest too. This suggests that those winters were exceptional and it's quite obvious that our winters in the UK do go through mild periods considering our position in comparison to the rest of Europe and our neighbouring countries.. Honestly, I sure don't know how some of you southern folk will cope if we don't see any improvements in the stratosphere. And Tellow, don't panic yet about the prospects of cold and snow. Patience is what you need as there are two more full months of winter left. You just need to wait and see how it pans out and I'm sure that we'll all see snow this winter.

However I've got to admit that I would find it unbearable to live in southern England with no snow since December 2010, whereas here we've had so much snow. And if things don't improve in the atmosphere then for some it could end up being 2 years (or more) with no snow. The contrasting attitudes in this forum is quite staggering between north and south. It just shows how things have been lately.

However it isn't all doom and gloom:

2009: January - Cold, February - Cold start, December - Cold

2010: January - Very Cold, February - Cold, November - Very Cold End, December - Very Cold

2011: .............

What I'm seeing is that the winter months of the calender year have had similar characteristics and features in recent years. 2010 had a theme of very cold and snowy weather, 2011 has had a theme of snowless weather (however it's a very different scenario up north). Who knows what 2012 will bring.

I specifically said the last two cold winters would go down in history as two in a mild run, as opposed to two winters beginning a generally colder long-term run (if this winter were to be mild, followed by more mild winters).

Thankfully I won't be one of those who will have gone one year without snow, as I woke up to almost an inch covering on Sunday, a very pleasant surprise for me as I wasn't expecting it and leaving me satisfied with December's weather (although I'm aware areas just a few miles from me will go snowless, as they received nothing from what I've heard, and I was lucky as it seems my village in Leics got the best of the county!). Also I don't really consider myself south - instead Midlands as I live in Leicestershire (therefore sometimes receive the rear end of certain cold shots). However, as you live so North I see how you could consider me south due to a very big contrast. The ones I feel sorry for are those down in the Plymouth area, they have it worst...

Edited December 20, 2011 by Tellow

[Ruzzi]

Well I am of the opinion that January will come in at a good chunk below average and then a colder than average Febuary but not excessively so. I feel that there will be a good 3 week (possibly more) cold spell starting around mid-January and lasting into Feburay. I also think there will be a few notable snowfalls in march 2012, especially in northern areas. My general reasoning for all this, is because to me it just seems as though the weather has stalled and we are running about 4-6 weeks behind, therefore a cold spell akin to the last 2 decembers, imo will show up during january. I know it may seem far-fetched, but to me it feels like that stubborn Euro high through-out november has just delayed the evolution of the winter weather, and I generally believe a big change will flag up on the models some time between boxing day and the 7th of January (i.e within the next 2 and a half weeks)

[leicsnow]

Well I am of the opinion that January will come in at a good chunk below average and then a colder than average Febuary but not excessively so. I feel that there will be a good 3 week (possibly more) cold spell starting around mid-January and lasting into Feburay. I also think there will be a few notable snowfalls in march 2012, especially in northern areas. My general reasoning for all this, is because to me it just seems as though the weather has stalled and we are running about 4-6 weeks behind, therefore a cold spell akin to the last 2 decembers, imo will show up during january. I know it may seem far-fetched, but to me it feels like that stubborn Euro high through-out november has just delayed the evolution of the winter weather, and I generally believe a big change will flag up on the models some time between boxing day and the 7th of January (i.e within the next 2 and a half weeks)

Yes, I have a gut feeling that we won't be seeing a repeat of Spring 2011, possibly perhaps quite the opposite!

[Methuselah]

My gut feeling is that 2012 will be one where all those 'Snowmageddon' loons will have their collective faces repeatedly covered in egg (as has already been the case ever since late September!). And then, when the inevitable cold snap does happen, the same loons will be congratulating themselves on their 'successes'.

A pretty average winter, then...