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Midlands, East Anglia and Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 4


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Just had a large shower of heavy rain break through, here, giving quite a soaking here. Has not really felt as cool as I thought, although it has not felt warm either.

Something which has surprised me, however, is the fact the Met Office go for wintry showers next Monday (according to their text summery for the West Midlands: http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html). The temperatures appear to be around 5 to 6*C for then, which should be favourable for some wintriness to fall from the showers, especially if the temperatures drop by a few degrees under a shower.

Looking at the 00Z UKMO model for Monday (at 96 hours out):

(Black arrows on chart showing the wind direction)

post-10703-0-63250700-1325177478_thumb.j

...there appears to be a cool Polar Maritime airflow occuring. Despite the winds coming from a West-South-Westerly direction for the Midlands and the rest of the UK, it should still feel cold thanks to cold air being brought down from the North-West/Greenland area. Although it's unfeasible to view the upper temperature charts for the UKMO on Wetterzentrale for 96 hours and beyond, I would imagine uppers below 0*C would certainly be possible in this setup, but I feel they may become modified to an extent as they cross the Atlantic Ocean. At best, I feel that any snow that falls from the showers, would probably be reserved for high ground, with perhaps showers of hail/rain for lower areas of the Midlands.

Chance of changes still to be had for Monday, and I think that Low/troughing to the South-West of the main large Low over Iceland could have some impact to future developements:

(Black circle showing the secondary Low)

post-10703-0-01499200-1325179971_thumb.j

The 12Z UKMO run also showing a similar theme for Monday, but with a risk of some milder air being brought in later on ahead of that Low/trough as it attempts to get closer to the UK.

:)

Edited by Rainbow Snow
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Well, as forecasted, a thoroughly wet miserable day here...Rain set in earlier on this morning and seems set to stay for the rest of the afternoon, but as luck would have it, I'm tucked up inside, nice & warm with a slab of 'speckled hen' to keep me company...not too shabby :drinks:

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Yes, a horrid wet afternoon in progress here. Now nearly two weeks of this mild weather with at least another week to go, possibly 2.

But at least next Tuesday brings a bit of interest in terms of wind. We've not had a winter like this in a while. When I think back to previous milder winters, 2007/2008 had a bit of Autumn snow in November. 2006/2007 had a period of frost, rime and fog just before xmas. I'm having to think back to the 90's for when we last had an Autumn and Winter like 2011/2012 so far. (I was out of the country 2004-2006 though) I'm talking purely West Midlands of course..I know areas not that far north of here had some decent events earlier in the month.

Can't wait to see what kind of pattern we will follow during the rest of winter. We will be using this winter in the future as proof that things can change for the better or we'll be using it as proof that a mild pattern can stick around for a whole season. More likely the first...although time will tell if 'better' is the right adjective!

Edited by Gord
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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Same here aj very grey and damp, but I'm guaranteed some thunder and lightning tonight.......

post-10773-0-00908700-1325256303.jpg

....I'm going to the MK Thunderdome ice rink to watch the hockey match between Lightning and Manchester Phoenix :clap:

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

There is no doubt we are now going to go over a year since our last snow cover. If this Winter shall carry on like this, like the 1990's and early 2000's then maybe if my wishful thinking prevails, we will be gifted with a much better summer. :)

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

There is no doubt we are now going to go over a year since our last snow cover. If this Winter shall carry on like this, like the 1990's and early 2000's then maybe if my wishful thinking prevails, we will be gifted with a much better summer. :)

Now that would make this rubbish period bearable wouldn't it?

I think we had lost our snow cover by this point last year...so we have gone a year. It thawed incredibly quickly once the milder air came in. Some higher parts of the Black Country got a quick covering on the morning of the 7th January though if thats what you're thinking.

Anyway, the reason why we love the weather is because of the way it can spring surprises. I do think that it's possible something will spring up out of nowhere over the next few weeks...even if it's just a 1 to 2 day cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

its been throwing it down all day here today, infact for the past few weeks we have had a lot of rain, So much so infact that travelling to shrewsbury this morning noticed how high the river seven was a few more days like this this then flooding could become an issue.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

It's amazing how one half of the country could be facing flooding issues while the other half worries about drought. This pattern can really split us in half in terms of rainfall. West Midlands certainly in the wet half this week!

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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

evening every1. I think will get out of this mild weather we having reading the model thread and the met 16-30day outlook temps set to go down to avrage and maybe below mid to late jan though it's going to be dry.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

I just want high pressure, seems ages since weve had high pressure over the UK, this autumn been dreadful, hopefully trend for pressure to rise from around 7th Jan, FI on gfs looks quite cold, but warm uppers

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Now that would make this rubbish period bearable wouldn't it?

I think we had lost our snow cover by this point last year...so we have gone a year. It thawed incredibly quickly once the milder air came in. Some higher parts of the Black Country got a quick covering on the morning of the 7th January though if thats what you're thinking.

Anyway, the reason why we love the weather is because of the way it can spring surprises. I do think that it's possible something will spring up out of nowhere over the next few weeks...even if it's just a 1 to 2 day cold spell.

Yes, we had a brief covering on the 7th January, even near Stourbridge Junction and Redhill areas. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

Had a quick flick through all the major cities in the northern hem including North America and Russia and the lack of any real cold weather

anywhere is shocking, What the **** is going on ?

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Posted
  • Location: STOKE ON TRENT-NORTH-211m ASL
  • Location: STOKE ON TRENT-NORTH-211m ASL

MetO Warning just issued for the West Midlads for Ice on Monday Morning with the possibility of a few centimeteres of snow above 200m!

Edited by GS Gritting Services-Stoke
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion

It's amazing how one half of the country could be facing flooding issues while the other half worries about drought. This pattern can really split us in half in terms of rainfall. West Midlands certainly in the wet half this week!

Still below average rainfall for the month here, despite the rain over the past few days - 14th consecutive month.

MetO Warning just issued for the West Midlads for Ice on Monday Morning with the possibility of a few centimeteres of snow above 200m!

Well, for parts of Cheshire, the Peak District and a tiny bit of North Staffs ....

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Were going to finish the year below 500mm of rain (About 480mm), which really emphasises how dry this year has been. This is just less than the Average rainfall for Madrid which is just over 500mm I believe!

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

MetO Warning just issued for the West Midlads for Ice on Monday Morning with the possibility of a few centimeteres of snow above 200m!

Meanwhile in the east of England it's for.......wind !

Yellow Alert of Wind for East of England

Yellow Alert of Wind for East of England : Norfolk, Cambridgeshire, Essex, Peterborough, Suffolk, Bedford, Central Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Luton, Southend-on-Sea & Thurrock valid from 0300 Tue 03 Jan to 2100 Tue 03 Jan

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

shame 06Z is an outlier, finally shows cold settled weather although no snow potential, probably normality resumed on 12Z with low pressure

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Posted
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Knowle, Solihull. 122m ASL

Happy New Year to all :)

Does anyone know the likelihood of any snow around the Buxton area tomorrow? Getting so desperate, thinking of taking a drive up there just to see some!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland

Happy New Year. 12c today in Lowestoft. Winter! What winter?

Happy new year. Compare this winter to 06/07 or 07/08, or in fact most of the last 20 year winters and it's been quite good so far, after just 1 month with an intense deep vortex accompanied by a cold strat we have done rather well. January should be cooler and February even colder is the most likely solution when looking at the composites... so all this negativity can wait until March please? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

Happy new year all. January looking alot more promising for any winter prospect's. :good:

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Happy New Year to all :)

Does anyone know the likelihood of any snow around the Buxton area tomorrow? Getting so desperate, thinking of taking a drive up there just to see some!

I would think there's quite a good chance of a thin cover, if not in Buxton town centre then on the hills nearby. Take a drive up to Flash Bar,if there's none there there'll be none anywhere in the locality but at least you can get a hot drink and a cake.

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