Tropical Cyclone Grant

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94S has become Tropical Cyclone Grant, with an intensity of 50kts. Grant has some very deep convection over the LLC, and is set to strengthen over the next 12hrs in an environment of low shear, sea temps in excess of 30C and excellent outflow. In about 15hrs time, Grant will make landfall as it drifts southwards through Croker Island onto the Northern Territory coast. Grant is then expected to push eastwards and weaken over the Top End before re-emerging over water in the Gulf Of Carpentaria, where conditions are expected to be very similar to what they are now, favouring re-intensification. Grant is then expected to cross the Gulf Of Carpentaria and make landfall on the Cape York Peninsula, where weakening will again occur at day 5 on landfall. JTWC forecast a peak of 55kts prior to both landfalls, but given the excellent upper level environment, high saturation of the environment and hot sea temps, Grant could become stronger than forecast. This is certainly a very moisture laden cyclone which is more thn capable of bringing not only wind damage, but also severe flooding.

[knocker]

[Somerset Squall]

Grant has moved inland and degenerated into a remnant low. The cyclone peaked at 55kts before this occured. The remnant low of Grant should push eastwards and re-emerge over the Gulf Of Carpentaria in a couple days, which should allow for the system to become a TC again. A second landfall is expected on the Cape York Peninsula. Grant should survive the trip and move out into the Coral Sea, where it could again restrengthen.

[Somerset Squall]

The remnant low of Grant is struggling to re-organise over the Gulf Of Carpentaria. Although waters are very warm, at around 31C, the upper level environment is far from ideal for restrengthening. Shear is moderate and the air dry, which may stop Grant from becoming a tropical cyclone again. JTWC no longer think this will occur, and BOM only forecast Grant to very briefly become a tropical cyclone again prior to moving across the Cape York Peninsula.

[Somerset Squall]

What little remains of Grant has moved inland now across the Cape York Peninsula. Re-generation is no longer expected.