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Very Severe Tropical Cyclone Thane


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

The sixth TC of the season, and the second to form in the Bay of Bengal, has developed a few hundred miles east-northeast of Sri Lanka. Intensity is 35kts. 06B has maintained some deep convection near or over the LLC which has deepened over the last 12 hours. The cyclone seems in a good position for strengthening as shear is low and waters are warm. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts prior to landfall in Chennai, India. This would make 06B the first cyclone in the North Indian Ocean 2011 cyclone season to surpass an intensity of 35kts.

EDIT: Intensity has just been raised to 40kts.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

06B has become Tropical Cyclone Thane, with intensity now at 45kts. Thane has meandered slowly northwards over the last day but is now moving northwestwards in response to ridging building to the north. This should drive Thane westwards towards the east coast of India. A landfall near Chennai is still anticipated. JTWC forecast a peak of 60kts.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thane has continued to strengthen, and the intensity is now 55kts. Thane maintains thick, curved banding about a well defined LLC. Thane will probably peak in the next 24hrs as shear increases and sea temps fall as Thane moves towards the east coast of India.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thane has strengthened further and is now a 65kt, cat 1 on the SS scale. Thane has a solid CDO feature now, something that has been lacking up until now. An eye also appears to be forming. Despite moderate shear, Thane could intensify a little more before slight weakening occurs prior to landfall.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thane has been upgraded to a "Very Severe Cyclonic Storm" by India Meteorological Department. The intensity has risen to 75kts. An eye is evident on satellite imagery, embedded in a slightly irregular CDO feature. Some further short term intensification appears likely. Based on current structure, I'd plump for a peak intensity of around 85-95kts.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Thane peaked at 80kts. The cyclone has is now making landfall in southeastern India. Intensity has fallen to 60kts as the eye fills in due to land interaction. A fairly swift decay of the cyclone is expected as Thane moves further inland.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Convection has all but dissipated in association with Thane this evening. All that remains is a convectionless swirl of clouds. Some models indicate survival of the LLC and a track into the Arabian Sea, but both JTWC and IMD are discounting this.

Initial reports suggest 33 people have died as a result of Thane.

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