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Tropical Cyclone Benilde


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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

TC 04S has formed 1000 miles east southeast of Diego Garcia, in the central South Indian Ocean. Intensity is 35kts. 04S is currently under moderate shear but convection is managing to persist near the well defined LLC. Shear is expected to ease beyond 24hrs, allowing 04S to strengthen. Until then, 04S may find it hard to intensify. The cyclone is moving westwards along the northern side of a subtropical ridge to the south. This ridge will break down due to a trough in the next few days, allowing 04S to turn towards the southwest. 04S is currently no threat to land.

Edited by Somerset Squall
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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

04S has intensified slightly over the last 24hrs and has become Tropical Cyclone Benilde, with intensity now at 40kts. Benilde is building convection back after a lull overnight. Shear is gradually easing and will continue to ease over the next day or two, allowing Benilde to intensify at a faster rate. JTWC are forecasting a peak of 90kts before the waters cool and shear increases along track. The trough I mentioned before breaking down the steering ridge to the south will allow a short period of enhanced outflow which may cause Benilde to rapidly intensify in around 36-48hrs time. At this time, Benilde will take a poleward turn.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Benilde has continued to intensify and intensity is now 55kts. The cyclone has been developing an eye this afternoon, and if this clears out, we could see some rapid intensification as shear is falling light and outflow is expected to improve greatly with the passing of the mid-lattitude trough.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Benilde is now a cat 1 on the SS scale with intensity now at 70kts. Benilde is now sporting an eye on satellite imagery which is gradually clearing out. JTWC now expect Benilde to peak as a cat 4 as the upper level environment continues to improve.

post-1820-0-51308300-1325280312_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Benilde has strengthened further overnight and has also turned to the southwest. Intensity has risen to 90kts, a cat 2 on the SS scale. The eye is becoming better defined though is still rather large. Strong banding flanks the cyclone. Further strengthening is likely over the next day or two until ocean heat content starts to drop off and shear begins to rise beyond 48hrs. Until then, Benilde has the chance to become the season's first cat 4.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Benilde did not strengthen beyond 90kts due to an unexpected intrusion of dry air. The cyclone has very slowly weakened and it's current intensity is 75kts. The cyclone has continued to move polewards but should soon turn towards the west as ridging rebuilds to the south. Sea temps are cooling along track, and shear is expected to rise, which will continue to weaken Benilde. For now however, the dry air is being offset by a moisture feed from invest 98S to the north. This will prevent rapid weakening in the short term. Eventually, in 3-4 days, Benilde should dissipate over open water.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset

Benilde has succumbed to the increasingly unfavourable environment. Convection resides well south of the LLC, which is now entirely exposed. JTWC have issued their final advisory.

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