James Madden

[leicsnow]

There was a topic about him in the lounge a few months back and I was surprised it hadn't been moved, so I thought I'd start one here, especially as there's already a topic on Piers Corbyn.

So, this guy first appeared in early 2009 when he said "I am therefore going to bravely stick my neck on the line again, and say that the Met Office indications of a boiling hot summer is incorrect". So IMO he was OK then - clearly knew he may have been wrong and made it clear he was aware. Soon after that he started talking about solar cycles and sunspot activity, something which he has emphasied again and again since.

Later, at the end of the year, he said "I am also going to state that the Met Office is wrong about a mild winter for 2009/10, and what is all this about a 1 in 7 chance of it being cold? Forget that, it will be a cold winter for most of Europe and the UK." At this point he was trying to state a FACT that his forecast was going to be right and the Met Office was going to be wrong. A bit silly seeing as though it was 1st November and the winter hadn't even started, so how could the Met Office have been wrong already at that point? Hmmm.

So in September 2010, when trying to predict winter 2010/2011, he actually forecast THIS winter as well, saying "I am currently predicting that the UK and Northern Europe will experience at the very least a winter similar to the last, or as I expect much worse with heavy snowfall. This is my basis on the severity of the cold for this coming winter due to the lag effect that comes with some of these processes, which will in return drastically affect the summer and winter of the UK in 2011/12." IMO that was a stupid thing to say, how could last winter affect this winter like that? As we are a third through we know that last winter hasn't create any "lag" effect on now.

So after predicting Summer 2011 and claiming success, he went on to predict this winter. As I said before, he tried to forecast this winter last September, as well as in late January/early February this year. He has since blamed the models for his inaccurate forecast, saying he "underestimated" them.

So what do you think of him now, and what do you think will be thought of him widely at the end of this winter, if as it probably will be that he is completely and utterly wrong.

[Paul]

The original thread discussing his winter forecast(s) was moved into the winter forecasts thread as there really wasn't enough worthwhile discussion to warrant a thread on it's own. So with that in mind I'm going to lock this one.