Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Welcome to the Ireland Foum Cue Killar

[BornFromTheVoid]

Welcome cue_killar!

I didn't notice a whole lot last night... ah well. I think I'm ready for that pattern change now!

[Baltic Regions]

Still really bad here. Our wheelie bins are down the street and have emptied themselves everywhere :o

Hi Cue_Killar! Welcome to the forum.

Fence blew down again last night! Getting sick of having to fix it!

[Earth Wind and Snow]

A belated Happy New Year to All

Some people such as GP and BFTP on NW Model Forecasting Discussion Forum are still expecting a pattern change around mid January - hopefully this happens number one and that it will bring us something more seasonal along the lines of some frost and snow number two

Since that severe spell of November-December 2010 we have had nothing wintrywise of note here in the south-east apart from the recent very windy spells

I am looking forward to at least one decent snowfall this winter to take the kids out in - my little fella is 6 and was really spoilt by the snowfalls of the last three winters (Feb 09, Dec 09, Jan 10 and Nov/Dec10) - he is asking me everyday since November when is it gonna snow - like me at his age he now thinks its a given that proper snowfalls will occur every winter. After the severe weather of Dec 09 and Dec 10, he couldn't understand why we had mild wind and rain this Christmas - again just assuming at his age that christmas = severe cold and snow

I grew up in the cold winters of the late seventies to mid eighties and also assumed snowfall was a given each winter until 87/88 and 88/89 arrived when I lost my innocence lol

My nephew grew up in the 1997 to 2008 period and hardly knew what a snow flake looked like until he was in his mid teens when the last three winters hit

Now my son is in the cycle of cold winters

Talk about weather cycles and the apple not falling far from the tree lol

Heres hoping the run of snowy winters continues this year - still plenty of time

EWS

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Earth Wind and Snow, My 5 year old was worried that Santa may not arrive as there was no snow lol.

I remain confident that we shall see some decent snow before the end of March, that said I hope its in February as I am not fussed in cold springs!

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

God its quite in here, good to see the folk getting excitedin the model thread, this morning is was the moaning thread lol

Can we have a regional slant on this by our more experienced model commentors please

[Harps]

Far too early to know anything specific regionally, the model thread can be a bit ridiculous when it comes to snow so I don't read it much but tonight's models suggesting a high might build up north or over Scandinavia which would drag cold air from the east. Too early to get excited about anything yet but an encouraging sign that something might finally happen

The coming week is looking like a total borefest though so its something to keep an eye on to keep spirits up

[ronan]

Cometely agree with you Harps! I try to stay away from the model thread as it bores me to death sometimes!! Anyway it just goes to show how quickly things can change! I know people were saying there would be a pattern change around mid month and I think Watcher was one if them? An Easterly isn't my favourite setup but in the right conditions we can do quite well! I have seen in the oast that snow can develope out if nowhere! Will be an interesting to see what happens toward mid month!

[The watcher]

Models still up in the air about what exactly the pattern change will be so we've a little wait to go yet. It looks odds on to be into a colder setup but we all know that can change quite quickly. It's going to be reliant on what the Jetstream does and how displaced or weak the polar vortex can become, then a -AO combined with favourable PFJ conditions might help us achieve a -NAO and get the all important Northern blocking.

[mountain shadow]

Personally I think the UK and Ireland will miss out on this easterly. Expecting the Arctic high to push into Scandanavia is just too high risk for me. I suggest that colder air will arrive nearer the end of the month courtesy of a northerly.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

Personally I think the UK and Ireland will miss out on this easterly. Expecting the Arctic high to push into Scandanavia is just too high risk for me. I suggest that colder air will arrive nearer the end of the month courtesy of a northerly.

Hi Mountain Shadow,

Yes it has been my hunch that the last 7-10 days of January will turn much colder and I expect Based on background signals that February will be the coldest month of the meteorlogical winter

EWS

[Rocheydub]

Hmmm, GFS 6z looking good dudes! Pity it's just not reliable on its own. Still, it Kees the interest alive!

[mountain shadow]

ECM unfortunately says no and it ain;t the daddy for nothing. Looks like it is setting up a northerly here though.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120109/12/npsh500.240.png

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

ECM unfortunately says no and it ain;t the daddy for nothing. Looks like it is setting up a northerly here though.

http://nwstatic.co.u...npsh500.240.png

I always prefer a good northerly as imo I am too far west to recieve any decent snow fall, that said it would be good to see you guys in the east get something decent cold and snow wise out of this winter

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

They are a tad excited in the Model Thread tonight - apart from poor Matty who has gone off in a huff

[Harps]

Yeah backing up my post the other day about how ridiculous that thread can get, it could very easily be gone in the morning and everyone will throw their toys out of the pram over it!

At the moment I'd only really look up to around 120h as being reasonably accurate, after that it could go either way with ECMWF going for a return to westerlies. Interesting possibilities but far too early to take it seriously

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I haven't even read the forum this morning yet I bet its toys out pram time again only for them to be as high as kites again this tonight - I think people just like a good moan!!

Oh theres a surprise I was right!

[gingercat]

the birds have gone crazy out there chirping- they think its spring already! So do my crocuses and daffodils which are already starting to push up through the ground!

[The watcher]

Its no good getting flustered at the models until they can agree or stick to a pattern in the medium term. It is very difficult to read the MOD thread without being confused. IMO the models are unsure at 120hrs and although the first bite at the proverbial cold cherry goes awol and returns zonal (probably cool zonal) other chances will occur within this month. However, lucky as we Irish are the cool/cold zonal modelled brings a snow risk within the week.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Watcher we did well in early Decemeber in the cold zonality - well some of us did, so hopefully someting a bit more widespread this time. The Model Thrad is ramping up again this morning....

[Juuyoku]

I heard birds singing and crows squaking this morning. Like a day in early spring out there!

[Downburst]

I heard birds singing and crows squaking this morning. Like a day in early spring out there!

Indeed, nature is stiring, the grass is growing with no frost in a long long while here. Without watching any models you can be sure that nature will come back and give the birds etc a slap on the face for being presumptive.

Non technical that but the law of averages suggest we have to have a pattern change and that NH chart on the ECM shows just that. One thing I am happy about is that despite the strong Jet the weather has remained drier than one might expect and I reckon if blocking does form that is going to continue.

We shall see all in good time.

[Juuyoku]

Yes, the current models look promising for about the 20th/21st but plenty of time for things to change! Here's hoping. Snow is always a nice bonus but even just frost for that wintry feel would be good at this point.

The ice cream man also drove past my house at 4pm today, song blaring :o

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

I have some more small apple blossom buds again the tree did the same thing in November!!

Will there be a sting in the tail of this winter?

[Baltic Regions]

You bought and planted those trees from lidle at the same time i did.

They will be messed up for the first year. i have one with flowers clinging to it but dont expect a thing from it.

my rhubarb is sprouting though.

spring is damned close!