Ireland Regional Discussion - January

[mountain shadow]

Here Big Innis, Scotland isn't even independent yet and your tapping up over the North Channel.

[ronan]

Oh I hope your right about snow next week! Big Innis I do pop into the Scottish thread every now and again! Great bunch on people in there! Starting to pick up bits and pieces about looking at the models and what setups suit for cold and snow! This time next year I'm going for Watchers job! Lol

[The watcher]

Mountain Shadow is technical, I'd say he knows more than me, especially about teleconnections and mountain torque, etc. I only know of the MJO, AO and NAO, currently intermediate on the SSW events and their effects. Not reading the models much atm and relying on what they discuss in the threads, basically large IMBY bias atm in there and alot of point scoring and differing opinions going on due to the uncertainty.

From what I could gather, NOAA discussions talk of the GFS being overly progressive and bullish in bringing back the atlantic and flattening the pattern and they prefer a major blend of the ECM with minor GFS. Any Easterly seems to be short lived via Southerly tracking LP down the North Sea and the more common theme seems to be NW/N which makes NW (including Ireland) more favourable for the colder spells in a weeks time. Deep prolonged cold though isn't looking odds on atm but certainly things will turn cold enough for snow and wintry precipitation with some lying snow likely in some areas. Where is still up for grabs until the uncertainty is resolved and all 3 major models are in agreement. By t120 we should know as we then fall into the range of the faxes and by t72 we could pin down just how much precipitation will be available.

[The watcher]

Oh I hope your right about snow next week! Big Innis I do pop into the Scottish thread every now and again! Great bunch on people in there! Starting to pick up bits and pieces about looking at the models and what setups suit for cold and snow! This time next year I'm going for Watchers job! Lol

Its not really a job, I've only had to delete 1 post in our thread this winter. Everyone has been good. Keep learning, it becomes far more interesting the more you know. In 3 years I have learnt ALOT.

[Big Innes Madori]

Here Big Innis, Scotland isn't even independent yet and your tapping up over the North Channel.

Hands across the sea eh

FREEDOM! :winky:

Big Innes

Edited January 14, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Big Innes Madori]

Oh I hope your right about snow next week! Big Innis I do pop into the Scottish thread every now and again! Great bunch on people in there! Starting to pick up bits and pieces about looking at the models and what setups suit for cold and snow! This time next year I'm going for Watchers job! Lol

You guy's are always welcome

Big Innes

[sundog]

i dunno maybe im reading the models wrong or something but on the latest runs i dont see anything too interesting apart from a day or two of cold next weekend with yes the chance of snow but with the pv where it is etc we still dont seem to be in line for anything significant atm anyway.

I admit i havent been on the net much the last while,was staying with the in laws for the last month as the father in law was sick, but i was trying to keep tabs on the forum through my wifes phone. The last few days i knew of the whole gfs v ecm thing but i was disappointed when i got home and viewed the latest ecm run this evening unless im not taking in some kind of bigger picture.

[mountain shadow]

Sundog. As you say the models are only showing a 48 hour cold snap later next week at the moment.

The hope is that the models are overplaying the polar vortex influence and underplaying the blocking to the east which if the strat warming can influence may lead to the atlantic systems pushing energy under the block and into europe and prolonging the cold.

It is the outside bet at the moment put after the winter so far, I would give my right Similar to a young bull to have an hour building a snowman with my two wee boys.

[sundog]

Sundog. As you say the models are only showing a 48 hour cold snap later next week at the moment.

The hope is that the models are overplaying the polar vortex influence and underplaying the blocking to the east which if the strat warming can influence may lead to the atlantic systems pushing energy under the block and into europe and prolonging the cold.

It is the outside bet at the moment put after the winter so far, I would give my right Similar to a young bull to have an hour building a snowman with my two wee boys.

I really hope that some bit of luck will be on our side,this winter we've been patient hoping for a big change. Well next week it could be said is the start of the second half of winter,i hope to god its better overall then the first. I would just love that pv to bugger off,well at least the strat is in better shape then it was say a few weeks ago.

[Harps]

I haven't been overly excited by whats being forecast either but after the utter boredom of the past month I'd take anything at this stage just to have a bit of weather worth enjoying. A 10 day spell in December aside its been an awful winter so far

UKMO was the most interesting of the 12z runs but there's been a trend of downgrading the cold potential over the past few runs so I'm not overly optimistic at this stage for anything better than wet snow showers in the north. Plenty of time for an improvement yet of course once the finer details are nailed on

0z GFS rolling out now, will it finally fall in line?

[The watcher]

Again this morning doom and gloom in the model thread would make you think all the UK and Ireland has mild dross forecast. Actually they show a few PM incursions bringing similar wintry spells to what we had early December and these can easily upgrade or indeed downgrade. That was the ECM's take on things. Yet to view the GFS 06z.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Country tracks forecast looks good for Thursday and Friday with a lot of the white stuff heading our way - fingers crossed its pans out as such!!

[mountain shadow]

A case of enjoying the couple of days cold and potential snowfall later in the week. Certainly nothing showing of a more prolonged cold spell at the minute although the UKMET shows promise. Hopefully a good ECM tonight starts to turn things around.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A case of enjoying the couple of days cold and potential snowfall later in the week. Certainly nothing showing of a more prolonged cold spell at the minute although the UKMET shows promise. Hopefully a good ECM tonight starts to turn things around.

Looks like the ECM has made the folks rather happy!

[mountain shadow]

Still not convinced Pom. Even the colder spell is looking very watered down, maybe just 24 hours and I think you will have to be up a hill to catch something wintry, if the GFS is anything to go by, we won't even get that.

[Harps]

GFS operational has little support though, the ensembles for Donegal have a nice wintry spell showing with most runs clustered around -5C for 3 or 4 days. Meaningless off one run obviously but an encouraging sight

[mountain shadow]

Nothing to get excited about later this week unfortunately. Perhaps a period of 24 hours where something wintry might fall but zero chance of any distruptive snowfall unless wee see major upgrades soon.

[Partholon]

I see Met Eireann in their latest update are not even mentioning the possibility of wintry showers for the weekend. I think the chances of a good upgrade are low at this stage. Looking to the longer term, some of the models do show opportunities for a decent cold spell.

[gingercat]

Its sooo cold!

[mountain shadow]

Not cold enough!

[Harps]

Yep the potential for the end of the week seems to be gone, GFS wasn't far off afterall!

A brief cooler spell with some sleet and hail at best, models are all over the place after than so little point looking at anything after 96h. Doesn't seem to be much happening though so yet another week written off for any interesting weather!

[geoffw]

chin up guys! read GP latest tech post, the models are struggling to cope with this huge pattern change

[The watcher]

They are either struggling or correct and I don't think we'll see a major pattern change quickly should it occur at all. Teleconnections can be favourable but not always will produce. Aslong as that Azores sits to our South/SW we won't see severe/prolonged cold so thats what change we would love to see. Either it needs to move significantly further West or Ridge to Greenland and create a block. In 2 weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see the former happen the followed by ridging North towards Western Greenland...fairly possible with what GP is saying.

[geoffw]

They are either struggling or correct and I don't think we'll see a major pattern change quickly should it occur at all. Teleconnections can be favourable but not always will produce. Aslong as that Azores sits to our South/SW we won't see severe/prolonged cold so thats what change we would love to see. Either it needs to move significantly further West or Ridge to Greenland and create a block. In 2 weeks I wouldn't be surprised to see the former happen the followed by ridging North towards Western Greenland...fairly possible with what GP is saying.

then your wintere forecast is wrong! better luck next time!

sorry didnt read your whole comment

Edited January 17, 2012 by geoffw

[ronan]

So quiet in here!! Are you fellas all hibernating!! Lol