Spring 2012

[Geordiesnow]

As for Robs original post, I think he means not actually warming up, but starting to feel more Springlike. For example a day in Mid-January where it is approximately 8C with a clear and sunny sky can feel more Springlike than say the end of November or anytime in December - I hold this to be true, however I live in a mildish area where Spring comes earlier and days are often milder in westerly winds.

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

Anyways I like others hope for a cooler April so it bucks the trend somewhat and one thing I like about spring is that we can even get snow showers from a NW'ly due to the sun strength and a cold airmass over land developing shower clouds. I always remember the incident in April 2008(?) where we had showers during the day but in the afternoon we had one shower which started as rain which turned into very heavy snow but the ground was too warm/wet for anything to settle yet I remember the Sunderland-Fulham game being abandaned because of a waterlogged pitch.

[summer blizzard]

Cooler than average March in my opinion with a slightly above average April and May about 1C above average.

A poor start to summer is also likely in my opinion.

Should have mentioned the weather types i expect.

March and April i expect to feature a fairly negative -AO with mainly northerly and easterly winds (easterlies in April could of course be quite warm which is why i went for a near average outcome). May i expect to see a more southerly and easterly element as the trough backs west into the Atlantic although the polar cell remains fairly strong (i think a spring/summer peak of the -QBO will mean a fairly late final warming again).

At this stage i am also leaning towards a wet start to summer.

[Milhouse]

One thing is for sure Spring wont be warmer than last year. It surely cant be, barring an absolute miracle that we break the record for the warmest Spring in consecutive years. If you just work on averages and the weather balancing itself out, we are most definately due an average Spring, possibly even a cooler one, so whilst a repeat of 2006 or 2008 would be a lot different to last year it shouldnt come as a shock. Spring is a season of transition anyway with snowfall historically falling in March and even in April. It just seems that in recent years we have fast forwarded to late Spring/early Summer in March, which we shouldnt expect to happen every year. However we seem to be living in interesting times so i'm not betting against yet another drier and warmer than average season.

[summer blizzard]

I would also add that statistically the coldest CET day is February 4th and the warmest CET day April 12th (Phillip Eden calculated once).

[SP1986]

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

It's not so much about temperatures, but I can be absolutely sure when it comes to February that unless there is a period of notable cold spells, it does genuinely start to feel springlike - feeling is not something you can attach statistics to, so it's going to be almost impossible to come to any kind of conclusion.

It's probably due in some part to a sun that is gathering strength, after a weak sun during November and December the pick up probably causes a psychological reaction whereby things feel more positive, or Springlike in terms of light etc.

[reef]

We havent had a spring more than 1C below the 30 year average since 1986 and only three out of the last 24 springs have been below average at all. For that reason Id like a cold one, especially after the relative tedium of homogenous warmth in 2007, 2009 and 2011. I would also like it to be snowy when I get married on 30th March.

It'll be unpopular on here if we get a cold one of course, but from a weather enthusiast's point of view it would be very interesting indeed (not that I didnt find April 2007 and 2011 interesting, but everything in moderation!).

[AderynCoch]

I agree. I'm bored of warm Aprils now. Give us a cold one.

[damianslaw]

"Technically speaking" the coldest day could be anytime. I think we are referring to when the coldest day is most likely to occur.

Anyway, the favourite thing about Spring for me is the warm days coupled with the cool nights. Always fascinating for me watching temperature on my weather station rise quickly as the day progresses / drop off quickly as the night draws in. A frosty morning followed by 17c in the afternoon is always nice. In Autumn the opposite applies with maxima of 17c likely to coupled with a minima of around 12/13c or more.

Yes the increased diurnal ranges are always good to see with cold frosty sub freezing nights followed by maxima in the high teens - such conditions feel very continental and often occur in the early part of spring under anticyclonic conditions with high pressure directly overhead.

I remain in winter mode until mid February - so in this respect won't be contributing to this particular thread until then. However, I will say how advanced plants and trees are at present - buds showing everywhere, daffodil shoots poking out highly. Not sure which plant has yellow flowers on it - think it is gorse or broom but the plant was yellow today at 200m in the Troutbeck Valley - very odd. Also loads of blackbirds keep singing in the middle of the night - not sure what this is all about. Have a feeling this advanced state will come to a crashing halt soon - mother nature always balances herself.

[SP1986]

An average April might be a good start point, lots of showers, especially in the southeast.

ps; Damian, Gorse always flowers at this time of year, it's normal.

[leicsnow]

I would also add that statistically the coldest CET day is February 4th and the warmest CET day April 12th (Phillip Eden calculated once).

Quite surprised that April has the warmest CET day, with the cool Spring nights.

Yes the increased diurnal ranges are always good to see with cold frosty sub freezing nights followed by maxima in the high teens - such conditions feel very continental and often occur in the early part of spring under anticyclonic conditions with high pressure directly overhead.

...

Yes, it also sort of reminds me of the Death Valley in late Autumn or early Spring.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Tellow

[syed2878]

I hope we get a warm spring and a hot summer. I'm not too keen on a cold spring unless it has a day or 2 with snow.

[Eugene]

I wouldnt mind winter first.

It felt like spring here many times in the second half of december.

The UK now has no properly defined seasons and they arent much different at all nowadays, very boring indeed.

[Eugene]

How do you come to that conclusion Stephen? The suns strength would be more or less the same and in the Northern Hemisphere sea temps would be cooler so in theory, a polar westerly in January would be colder than it will be in late November-Early December. You can feel the suns strength more between mid-late Feb onwards but on the other hand, we could get potent PM airmass over us so the temperature will be very low despite the warmer sun.

Yes geordie its absolute nonsense to say it can feel more springlike in mid january than late november when sun strength is the same, if he meant mid feb i would agree but not only mid january whicch is only a week away if mid jan starts the 10th and it definately wont feel warmer than than the last week of november with the same conditions, actually because of colder sea temps/soil temps i feel mid jan feels ever so slightly cooler than late november, you see more insects around in late nov than mid jan.

Got to say this is a strange time to start such a thread when its felt like spring already this winter and you wouldnt start autumn threads in only very early July when heat can last until october 1st like last year.

[Alex]

Spring last year was amazing but I hope summer is nice this year. We are surely now overdue a dry sunny summer! And with the exception of 2009, I can't remember a good August recently.

[Scorcher]

This is a very very crude way of looking at things (I'm not having a go at you by the way), it's something that people are taught and whilst it is generally true, coastal areas up north can start earlier in Spring than further down south in some cases (although even up here were behind the likes of Cornwall and the south coast). Often I speak to drivers who can testify that Manchester for example on the same latitude is 3-4 weeks behind here in terms of Spring growth. Also in the past 3 winters when I've travelled down to Birmingham I've noticed leaves grow on trees here a lot earlier than there.

I think this is quite speculative to be honest, and I think 3-4 weeks is an exaggeration. I travel around the country quite a lot and the differences in growth in spring are usually quite minimal over such short distances. Having travelled a lot between Manchester and Cheltenham last year I can confirm that there was a noticeable difference in growth in early April but even over this distance of about 140 miles south it wasn't 3-4 weeks difference. Also I think it's a generalisation to talk about growth in periods of time- a really warm period (I'm thinking early May 2008 after a rather cool April) can result in a sudden transformation with a huge amount of plant and leaf growth in a couple of days.

[Portland Paul]

It's not so much about temperatures, but I can be absolutely sure when it comes to February that unless there is a period of notable cold spells, it does genuinely start to feel springlike - feeling is not something you can attach statistics to, so it's going to be almost impossible to come to any kind of conclusion.

It's probably due in some part to a sun that is gathering strength, after a weak sun during November and December the pick up probably causes a psychological reaction whereby things feel more positive, or Springlike in terms of light etc.

I would agree with that, as February 2011 (mildest for 9 years) didn't feel spring-like at all, except on 24th, as it was often very dull and damp.

In contrast, the previous cold February 2010 had a good number of days that felt spring-like, due to dry and sunny days and positive warmth to the sun out of the cold north-easterly breeze.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Anyways I like others hope for a cooler April so it bucks the trend somewhat and one thing I like about spring is that we can even get snow showers from a NW'ly due to the sun strength and a cold airmass over land developing shower clouds. I always remember the incident in April 2008(?) where we had showers during the day but in the afternoon we had one shower which started as rain which turned into very heavy snow but the ground was too warm/wet for anything to settle yet I remember the Sunderland-Fulham game being abandaned because of a waterlogged pitch.

I think you're recalling the unexpected snowstorm on the 8th April 2006, when a particularly large cumulonimbus cell mid-afternoon produced a heavy shower that started off as rain, then turned to small hail, and then turned to snow, with some short-lived accumulations on the ground. According to my records the temperature dropped from 4.8C to 1.0C in half an hour.

April 2008 had the most significant accumulation of snow in the South Tyneside area for April since at least the 1980s. About 4 centimetres from east-coast snow showers early on the 7th, following frequent wet snow on the 6th. The other instances of lying snow in April here were on the 12th April 1998 (2cm) and the 13th April 1999 (dusting, but covering a large majority of the ground). During the cold snaps of 18th-20th April 1995 and 8th April 2005 sleet and snow showers failed to produce accumulations but hail showers provided some coverings- about an inch on the afternoon of the 20th April 1995 following a particularly potent hailstorm.

Yeah, I'd certainly fancy at least a couple of potent northerly/north-westerly outbreaks during this coming April. I certainly wouldn't be averse to some warm sunshine mixed in either, especially if warm sunshine and cold snaps follow straight after another, but after three consistently warm anticyclonic Aprils in a row, I don't particularly fancy a fourth.

[feb1991blizzard]

Was there not a potent cold blast bringing widespread disruption in the early 80s in late April, i seem to remember someone posting a Newspaper article last spring, i think it was John Holmes, there was massive drifts in the pennines

[Thundery wintry showers]

Late April 1981, when after a warm first half, cold northerlies pushed down during the last third of the month, initially bringing sunshine and wintry showers, and then a low stalled over the south and gave heavy prolonged snowfalls to many parts of the country accompanied by very strong winds.

[feb1991blizzard]

This must have been the one.

http://www.meteociel...=0&map=0&mode=0

I was too young to remember it but it just shows you what you can get out of season, that is an event i would have loved to have witnessed,

Edited January 3, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[Derp Patrol]

Unfortunately, I don't think I've ever seen any real April snow (settling) The one time that we did get snow in 2008 I was in Paris so I missed it!

[leicsnow]

This topic is a bit of an overlap of the Spring Snowfall thread I created over a month ago in the Historical section. Probably best to keep discussion in this thread based on hopes (and later prospects) for Spring 2012, and talk about any past Spring events over there.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Tellow

[Bottesford]

Got to say this is a strange time to start such a thread when its felt like spring already this winter and you wouldnt start autumn threads in only very early July when heat can last until october 1st like last year.

We had a winter thread started in early July nevermind autumn!

At no point has it felt spring like during this winter. It's felt autumn like perhaps - mild with wind but very low solar input. Spring to me is 'cold Earth - warm Sun' whereas its been more 'warm Earth - cold Sun' this winter.

There can be no accurate predictions at this range but only hopes...

For me I'd like to see some early warmth in March - those days around 15-16c with light winds and sunshine. Just to feel like winter is finally being shaken off.

Then I think we're long overdue some hefty wintry showers during April off the back of northerlies and north-westerlies. That weather where one minute its sunny (and feeling warm in that sun) the next it's snowing or raining heavily.

Mix in some calm periods too (cold nights, warm days) then once we get to mid May switch on the true hair dryer of deep southerlies... Drag up tons of continental heat and let that span across the entire summer giving endless hot sunshine mixed with some hefty thunderstorms.

[feb1991blizzard]

We had a winter thread started in early July nevermind autumn!

At no point has it felt spring like during this winter. It's felt autumn like perhaps - mild with wind but very low solar input. Spring to me is 'cold Earth - warm Sun' whereas its been more 'warm Earth - cold Sun' this winter.

There can be no accurate predictions at this range but only hopes...

For me I'd like to see some early warmth in March - those days around 15-16c with light winds and sunshine. Just to feel like winter is finally being shaken off.

Then I think we're long overdue some hefty wintry showers during April off the back of northerlies and north-westerlies. That weather where one minute its sunny (and feeling warm in that sun) the next it's snowing or raining heavily.

Mix in some calm periods too (cold nights, warm days) then once we get to mid May switch on the true hair dryer of deep southerlies... Drag up tons of continental heat and let that span across the entire summer giving endless hot sunshine mixed with some hefty thunderstorms.

It was started in May actually because i was the one that started it!! OON changed the title though.

[leicsnow]

I think to some people a thread about Spring started in January is more surprising than a Winter thread started in July, as for the majority of this forum's members Winter is the season they look forward to the most. Whilst most members are indeed looking for a Summer with intense heat and thunderstorms, their longing for a cold snowy Winter is far greater.

Edited January 3, 2012 by Tellow