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Spring 2012


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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

Oh please please please can we have a summer this year, last Summer was exceptionally poor here throughout as it was just SO bland, the end of September + 1st October was simply glorious however.

Hopefully we won't have another April 2011 here in that the whole of England & Wales was often sunny whilst Shropshire was shrouded in cloud.

Another April 2010 would do nicely!

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I'm struggling to comprehend were sitting under high pressure, with a semi-clear sky above and it's 10C in January.

I need pinching.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

I'm hoping for a cold and snowy Spring and a summer.. well.. a summer full of storms, don't care what temperature it is.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

We are way overdue a cold April or at least one that is at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I think the statistical elastic band on this one is well overstretched. I can't see this continuing.

This would be a shock to the system if we got one, the lowest CET for an April since 1990 is 7.7C. I posted an article months ago about a letter posted in 1937 about the decline in April. Only 3 years later began a run of much improved Aprils occurred, with 3 on the trot with a double digit CET. I do not believe cold Aprils have become extinct because if we can recently have a December that was exceptionally below average, I can't see why we can't have an April that is much below average. Easter is in early April this year, its well within the realms of possibilty that Easter 2012 could be colder than Christmas 2011.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

This would be a shock to the system if we got one, the lowest CET for an April since 1990 is 7.7C. I posted an article months ago about a letter posted in 1937 about the decline in April. Only 3 years later began a run of much improved Aprils occurred, with 3 on the trot with a double digit CET. I do not believe cold Aprils have become extinct because if we can recently have a December that was exceptionally below average, I can't see why we can't have an April that is much below average. Easter is in early April this year, its well within the realms of possibilty that Easter 2012 could be colder than Christmas 2011.

Also, when you look at the winter period since the late 1980s it is January and February where all the real mild stuff has been concentrated - the highest CET for any December since 1988 is 6.5*C - a mild one yes but still not in the top 20 warmest Decembers, whereas in the last 23 years both January and February have been at least in the top 20 warmest ever on at least five occasions in both months. It just seems so long since January or February lived up to their name for the coldest winter weather. Only recently Jan 2010 was well below average - certainly cold although it wasn't extraordinarily so. I think that we are truly overdue a really cold January or February.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

Living in the southeast last year, Spring definitey arrived in February. January certainly wasn't but wasn't exactly wintry either, rather more like late February should be. Quite often, the sun came out in February during southwesterly airstreams and it felt warm! Only a few colder days in early March passed before early summer properly set up in the final third of the month.

How I would like this spring to turn out very much depends on how long it takes winter to arrive in the first place. If nothing happens until February, then a cold and snowy March would be good. If snow arrives in the second half of January then a cold start followed by a gradual warm up would be good. Either way, a varied spring is favoured as last spring, as beautiful as it was, was rather arduous until May. April should be a showery month with at least one northerly and warm spell of 4-5 days. May should then be rather unsettled as a settled May could give way to naff summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Agreed . Any trip down the M6 or M1 allows you to pass through into spring as you move south.

For me the 'greening' of the fields and horses going bonkers heralds spring to me! The field are still green atm (and not browny yellow with grass laid flat by the weight of snow!!!)

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

I'm struggling to comprehend were sitting under high pressure, with a semi-clear sky above and it's 10C in January.

I need pinching.

I know, it's odd isn't it. We had a clear and sunny morning in these parts yesterday and a temperature of 9C first thing! The day as a whole was mostly sunny/bright until about 3pm and reached 11C. I can barely remember a January day that felt so springlike. Even the sun itself felt surprisingly warm. I think this winter in some areas is proving that mild in December and January does not necessarily mean constant cloud and rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

There was a day just before Christmas, it could have been the 22nd, that felt so springlike it was unbelievable. Even the sunlight looked unusually bright and warm.

Spring is now close second to Summer for my favourite season. If anyone saw countryfile last night from East yorkshire you will know what i'm talking about. I think its just the vibrancy of all the new growth and bright sunlight that makes it such an interesting and exciting time of year. Then everything turns a bit darker green during the summer and in some parts of the countryside it becomes darker as the trees unfurl their leaves and block out the sun. But for round about a month during Spring, Usually April, the light and colour on a bright sunny day is just fantastic, and even better if its warm. I hope to get out more this Spring to experience it.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

I actually prefer late spring to some later parts of summer despite summer being warmer. It's the ample daylight and the feeling you still have months of it to go still. I much prefer May to August for example and April definitely beats September.

And yes everything coming to life after months of the garden looking dead and tired is just wonderful!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

There was a day just before Christmas, it could have been the 22nd, that felt so springlike it was unbelievable. Even the sunlight looked unusually bright and warm.

It was probably the 22nd- my records for Cleadon certainly note plenty of warm sunshine that day, and it wasn't particularly windy either.

Today is proving quite similar here, though not quite as warm.

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Posted
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: 22-38C in summer with storms, cold in winter with some snow/or 15-25C
  • Location: Valencia, Spain or Angmering, West Sussex

Wet and Cool spring please! HP is better used in June/July and especially August! which is long overdue to be above average, it won't be though. Average.

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

For the moment i would strongly favour a wetter than average summer and suspect that we will be on the cold side.

I really hope not, after 5 in a row, enough really is enough (2011 wasn't wet, but above average rain days (drizzle etc) and cool).

If we do continue to get summers similar to recent summer's here I might become increasingly suspicious that something like lower ice levels etc are effecting the global circulation so we tend to get cooler wetter summers here more often.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

What amazed me about summer 2011 was the lack of warmth on some sunny days!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I really hope not, after 5 in a row, enough really is enough (2011 wasn't wet, but above average rain days (drizzle etc) and cool).

If we do continue to get summers similar to recent summer's here I might become increasingly suspicious that something like lower ice levels etc are effecting the global circulation so we tend to get cooler wetter summers here more often.

The QBO is not the be all and end all but let us look at the data..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index (standardised at the bottom)

Since 1979 the following spring and summers have seen all months with -QBO values...

2005 (June was great)

2003 (great summer and April but El Nino)

2001 (May was good)

1998 (Pretty poor)

1996 (Pretty poor)

1994 (Great July but El Nino)

1989 (May and July was great)

1984 (Pretty poor)

Seemingly all the great months also had El Nino conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I would welcome a wet summer if the "wetness" resulted from short-lived thundery downpours with temperatures and sunshine levels above average. It's not a common combination in the UK (despite most of continental Europe traditionally having warmer and sunnier but also wetter summers than ours), but it arose in some parts of the country in the Julys of 1994 and 2006 and in June 2003. August 2004 was a near-approach in some parts of the country, exceptionally wet but warm with near-average sunshine and 6 to 9 thunder-days. However when we get long-term projections of a wet summer it usually suggests southerly tracking lows and cloudy wet conditions from Atlantic rain belts- I think many of us have seen more than enough of that in recent years!

Btw standards may be a little high if 1984 and 1996 were "pretty poor". 1984 got off to a mediocre start but July, and to a lesser extent August, were dry, sunny and warm almost nationwide. Summer 1996 was a cool cloudy one in the northern half of Scotland and in Northern Ireland, but elsewhere it was generally sunny and quite dry with warm days and cool nights.

The last few years almost support the "warm dry sunny April = washout summer" theory but don't forget that April 2008 was pretty mixed, with snowfalls around the 6th, and that Spring 2008 as a whole was one of the snowiest of recent years. After an average June the summer of 2008 descended into the dullest August since 1912.

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

June 2006 followed by July 2006 followed by August 2003 would do me. I don't ask much! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon

The QBO is not the be all and end all but let us look at the data..

http://www.cpc.ncep....s/qbo.u30.index (standardised at the bottom)

Since 1979 the following spring and summers have seen all months with -QBO values...

2005 (June was great)

2003 (great summer and April but El Nino)

2001 (May was good)

1998 (Pretty poor)

1996 (Pretty poor)

1994 (Great July but El Nino)

1989 (May and July was great)

1984 (Pretty poor)

Seemingly all the great months also had El Nino conditions.

Thanks for that data, I think I should hope for a quick demise of La Nina, and possibly an emergence of El Nino (I haven't seen the ENSO forecasts recently so don't know how much of a realistic possibility that is)

I guess the recent summers doesn't effect the statistical probabilities for this summer, like if throwing a dice and the last 5 were sixes, it doesn't make it any less or more likely the next one will be a six, so I shouldn't really expect a good one just because recent ones haven't been so good.

My preferences are pretty much the same as TWS, I didn't like last summer too much because despite having below average rainfall totals at times, there were above average rain days and cloud due to drizzle/light falls at times. There were a couple larger falls during the summer though. I could even find more interest in a 'frontal rain' summer if the rainfall totals were high. I think that sunshine levels and temperature (particularly max temps) are a more important measure of summer to me.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I would welcome a wet summer if the "wetness" resulted from short-lived thundery downpours with temperatures and sunshine levels above average. It's not a common combination in the UK (despite most of continental Europe traditionally having warmer and sunnier but also wetter summers than ours), but it arose in some parts of the country in the Julys of 1994 and 2006 and in June 2003. August 2004 was a near-approach in some parts of the country, exceptionally wet but warm with near-average sunshine and 6 to 9 thunder-days. However when we get long-term projections of a wet summer it usually suggests southerly tracking lows and cloudy wet conditions from Atlantic rain belts- I think many of us have seen more than enough of that in recent years!

Btw standards may be a little high if 1984 and 1996 were "pretty poor". 1984 got off to a mediocre start but July, and to a lesser extent August, were dry, sunny and warm almost nationwide. Summer 1996 was a cool cloudy one in the northern half of Scotland and in Northern Ireland, but elsewhere it was generally sunny and quite dry with warm days and cool nights.

The last few years almost support the "warm dry sunny April = washout summer" theory but don't forget that April 2008 was pretty mixed, with snowfalls around the 6th, and that Spring 2008 as a whole was one of the snowiest of recent years. After an average June the summer of 2008 descended into the dullest August since 1912.

The first half of May 2008 was epic for me with constant high pressure and temperatures in the 20-25 range. I believe the warmest first half on record.

I imagine that the second half of June 2005 would have been perfect for your preferences. Hottest second half since 1976 but very thundery.

In terms of summer prospects i believe that monitoring the strength of the warm plumes is important. I recall that spring 1995 had several warm plumes as did 2003 and 2005.

Thanks for that data, I think I should hope for a quick demise of La Nina, and possibly an emergence of El Nino (I haven't seen the ENSO forecasts recently so don't know how much of a realistic possibility that is)

I guess the recent summers doesn't effect the statistical probabilities for this summer, like if throwing a dice and the last 5 were sixes, it doesn't make it any less or more likely the next one will be a six, so I shouldn't really expect a good one just because recent ones haven't been so good.

My preferences are pretty much the same as TWS, I didn't like last summer too much because despite having below average rainfall totals at times, there were above average rain days and cloud due to drizzle/light falls at times. There were a couple larger falls during the summer though. I could even find more interest in a 'frontal rain' summer if the rainfall totals were high. I think that sunshine levels and temperature (particularly max temps) are a more important measure of summer to me.

Yes, i analysed the summer months with CET values of 18C or more and of those 12, just 2 occurred with -MEI values.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

The 12 were since 1950..

Since 1979 these were the months with CET values of 18C or more..

July 1983 (positive)

July 1989 (negative)

July 1994 (negative)

July 1995 (positive)

July 2006 (positive)

August 1990 (positive)

August 1995 (positive)

August 1997 (positive)

August 2003 (negative)

Factoring in the QBO in brackets we see that two thirds of 'hot' months occurred with +QBO values.

That is not to say we can not get a nice month but in terms of getting a classic with a certain -QBO we need La Nina to collapse.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Perhaps changing the name to Spring/Summer 2012 might be appropriate given the general discssion going on at the moment.

If i could choose to have a 1996 style summer now i would say yes please. June and July were quite dry and July and August both came in the mid 16s for the CET. On the face of it it was a very ordinary summer but i contained a lot more summery moments than last years dross. Just goes to show that even an average summer can deliver the goods if its sunshine and heat your after.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

Back to reality tonight, clear sky and cold.. 5C and on for a frost!

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Posted
  • Location: Berlin, Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Ample sunshine; Hot weather; Mixed winters with cold and mild spells
  • Location: Berlin, Germany

In my area we've gained 20 mins in the evening and 2 mins in the morning from their earliest/latest times.

January really is a month where the climb inches along before gaining speed into February.

The return of daylight really is the thing I most enjoy about spring. The early darkness drives me mad at times.

Milestones for me are when I first notice it isn't dark as I go home (around early Feb), then followed shortly by no longer needing lights at all (mid Feb). Darkness clears my getting up time around the same time too making for double bonus. I'm then free of the dangerous rides home and the daily key fumble in the dark...

Then we hit post 6pm in mid March followed swiftly by the clock move opening up the entire early evening to daylight again giving me access to the garden and other house jobs outside of weekends again - not to mention a post work pint and still home in daylight.

After that I'm happy with the continuing increase into summer and remain happy until it slinks back again in September.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

I imagine that the second half of June 2005 would have been perfect for your preferences. Hottest second half since 1976 but very thundery.

Indeed it stood out as a pretty memorable spell, a good half-dozen hot sunny days with temperatures in the mid 20s, and some unusually big thunderstorms on the 19th (and I remember that there were more around the 27th/28th further south, I missed out on those but got a weak one on the 30th June). I would have ranked 2005 among my favourite summers overall had it not been for the persistent dull cool weather during the last third of July 2005.

It's interesting to see the comments about spring hot plumes, as 1995 and 2003 certainly had an above-average share of those, as did 1990, and Spring 1976 also contained a few notable hot plumes, these mainly in the south. However, I always feel a little sceptical when discussing those sort of relationships, as quite often we get long runs of years which follow a particular pattern only for it to abruptly be broken.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

)

1996 (Pretty poor)

.

The Manchester Summer Index suggests otherwise for the summer of 1996. It was actually a half decent summer, both June and July were pretty dry, much better than any of the last 5 summers around this neck of the woods. It was eclipsed by summer 1995 but if you want a reasonable summer but not a scorcher on the scale of 1995, 1996 would be a pretty good one to choose.

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