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Atlantic Storms - January Part 2


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Wind shear and helicity is significant over much of the UK & Ireland by early evening.

GFS ppn & MSLP charts showing 6hr rainfall accumlations,

Meto NW England forecast mentions gales locally severe around coasts, looking at the town forecasts 60-70mph gusts are indicated here.

post-9615-0-16361900-1325673337_thumb.pn

post-9615-0-41969400-1325673346_thumb.pn

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post-9615-0-84410400-1325673367_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire
  • Location: Preston - Lancashire

The forecaster on 5 live this morning did not seem too over excited about the weather tonight and into tomorrow. Gusts up to 50mph with gales elsewhere. No real mention was made of the heavy rain either that is included in the Met Office warning at the moment.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Metcheck have issued a warning for parts of the west & north west - mainly for the rainfall, the wind is mentioned but of least concern from this event

http://www.metcheck....EE/warnings.asp

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The forecaster on 5 live this morning did not seem too over excited about the weather tonight and into tomorrow. Gusts up to 50mph with gales elsewhere. No real mention was made of the heavy rain either that is included in the Met Office warning at the moment.

Perhaps it's just me then? :doh:

I keep seeing rain then big convective gusts and the possibility of helical activity along Eastern coasts and a bit inland :unsure:

hir_prec_eur21.png

21_19.gif

gfs_gusts_eur24.png

HiRLAM playing them down slightly:

hir_gusts_eur27.png

Metcheck have issued a warning for parts of the west & north west - mainly for the rainfall, the wind is mentioned but of least concern from this event

http://www.metcheck....EE/warnings.asp

Note that only runs until 03Z tomorrow, I suspect that is when things may start to get going in the Eastern side if they are going to happen.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

UKWeatherworld have an interesting and rather more severe warning in place, cold front associated with a deep 60knt windfield with gusts to 70knts (80mph) with broken strongly forced convection. I would expect other weather services to issue warnings soon, this could be nasty for many! Flooding and severe wind gust potential.

Let's hope Nick can shed some light on things as they currently stand? :)

http://www.ukweather...r-Warnings.aspx

Meto have updated the warnings also, risk of disruption from heavy rainfall and severe gales in the north & west.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/nw/nw_forecast_warnings.html

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Just like with the last RACY system I believe models have underestimated wind values by some +20mph sustained speeds and evenmoreso for higher gusts given warm air aloft now placed over the UK from the first system. Mixing of the jet with yet more air from the tropics will be influential in raising CAPE and especially enhancing the chance for SLW damaging gusts given the environment representative of the current charts. Later on it'll be (as always) a case of nowcasting and watching the wind reports coming out from buoys & land-based stations to gauge the windfields path and verocity.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

SkyWarn now bringing out a warning along the lines of what's been discussed here this morning, but in greater detail:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING #003

ISSUED: 1200UTC WEDNESDAY 4TH JANUARY 2012

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SCOTLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND WALES MIDLANDS EASTERN ENGLAND SOUTHEASTERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200UTC THURSDAY 5TH JANUARY 2012

A SUB-970MB LOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST, AND ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE WITH STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

STRONG GUSTS...HEAVY RAIN...HAIL...T1/T2 TORNADOES...FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS STRONG MODEL CONFIDENCE OF A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE UK DURING THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVES AROUND THE DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH ARE ENGAGED BY A VERY STRONG AND DEEP JETSTREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST, INSPIRING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CENTRE WHICH REINVIGORATES THE PREVIOUS LOW OVER THE NORTH SEA AND BALTIC SEA AREAS. A DISTURBED COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST FROM LATE EVENING WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION BEHIND, AHEAD OF WHICH GALES AND HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST AREAS INCLUDING THOSE ADJACENT TO THE WARNING AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER AND IN LEE OF HIGH GROUND OF THE HIGHLANDS, SOUTHERN UPLANDS, PENNINES AND SNOWDONIA MAY BE ENHANCED BY STRONG WINDS TO EXCEED 40MM DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS EAST OF HIGH GROUND MAY ALSO INCUR FOHN EFFECTS BRINGING 60KT 950MB WINDS TO SURFACE. THE DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE MID LEVELS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, WITH THE 180KT JETSTREAM AND 60KT LOW LEVEL JET CREATING AMPLE FORCING FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. LINE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY HOURS, BUT THE STRONG UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THIS DOWN TO FRAGMENTS OF ORGANISED CONVECTION INTO THE MORNING. HOWEVER, GOOD DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG 950MB WIND MAY SEE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 70KTS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANISED CONVECTION, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS SHEARED, CONTINUED STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE AIRMASS BOUNDARY AND FURTHER SURFACE SHORTWAVING OVER NORTHERN SCOTLAND WILL GENERATE TRAINS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH STRONG GUSTS MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN COASTS THOUGH PENETRATING FAR INLAND FROM OROGRAPHIC TRIGGERING OVER HIGH GROUND, POSSIBLY WITH PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW IN THE FAR NORTH. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

Also MetO first warning for the Eastern side of the country now:

Yellow Warning of Wind 04 Jan 2012, 18:00 Yellow Warning of Wind

Valid From: 04 Jan 2012, 18:00

Valid To: 05 Jan 2012, 06:00

Issued at - 04 Jan 2012, 11:20

Valid from - 04 Jan 2012, 18:00

Valid to - 05 Jan 2012, 06:00

Westerly winds will increase through today, with gales and locally severe gales likely during the evening, easing from the north later in the night. The public should be aware of the risk of localised disruption which is likely to be caused by gusts reaching 60-70 mph.

http://www.metoffice...72560219B7_5_EM

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Raining pretty heavy here now as the the warm front moves east along with an ever increasing wind, I wonder what time roughly the cold front & gales arrive?

Perhaps you could post the latest satellite Atlantic analysis chart please Coast? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Perhaps you could post the latest satellite Atlantic analysis chart please Coast? :)

My pleasure Sir!

ASIINWP_20120104_1200.png

From this morning:

20120104.0600.composite.SeaLevelPress_model_overlays_mediterranean_mediterranean.x.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

My pleasure Sir!

ASIINWP_20120104_1200.png

From this morning:

20120104.0600.composite.SeaLevelPress_model_overlays_mediterranean_mediterranean.x.jpg

Thank you mate :)

Look at the dry air being sucked in behind the the cold front, quite an impressive structure.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

SkyWarn now bringing out a warning along the lines of what's been discussed here this morning, but in greater detail:

Also MetO first warning for the Eastern side of the country now:

http://www.metoffice...72560219B7_5_EM

didn't Skywarn get yesterdays storm pretty much spot on? if so that's quite worrying!

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Anybody watching BBC news, the damage caused by the sting jet that tore through Central Scotland is immense, some of the stonework and chimney stacks blown off must be very heavy indeed.

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL
  • Location: Darton, Barnsley south yorkshire, 102 M ASL

Thank you mate :)

Look at the dry air being sucked in behind the the cold front, quite an impressive structure.

Looking at these images and running the yr.no anim make me feel panicky, getting a bad feeling about this but don't let my intuition cause alarm!

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Anybody watching BBC news, the damage caused by the sting jet that tore through Central Scotland is immense, some of the stonework and chimney stacks blown off must be very heavy indeed.

It was the noise of the wind higher up off the ground which I will remember. I wish I could have recorded that noise properly above the sound of the trees swooshing and the wind howling in the windows. It was a really eerie howl, I remember that from 1998 storm too, the screaming howl from above...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

didn't Skywarn get yesterdays storm pretty much spot on? if so that's quite worrying!

I think they were pretty close! It's a pity TORRO and UKASF aren't manned at the moment as it would be interesting to see what their take on it is. I see Nick F is lurking, perhaps you could give us an expert view on tonight's possibilities Nick?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

It was the noise of the wind higher up off the ground which I will remember. I wish I could have recorded that noise properly above the sound of the trees swooshing and the wind howling in the windows. It was a really eerie howl, I remember that from 1998 storm too, the screaming howl from above...

Well if it was anything like the January 2005 storm to hit Cumbria then I can picture just how bad it was. A sting jet formed and slammed into West Cumbria with St Bees Head recording a top gust of 88kts (101mph) with an hourly mean of 63kts (73mph) Great Dun Fell 111kts (128mph) and many more widespread gusts of 80-90mph across N England, I've never heard anything quite like that.

post-9615-0-18883600-1325685158_thumb.pn

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

00HELST_024.jpg

00HELST_027.jpg

Hard to see, but I think those are generally 45 to 50 kt winds with some possible 60 to 70 kt ones in places?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

00HELST_024.jpg

00HELST_027.jpg

Hard to see, but I think those are generally 45 to 50 kt winds with some possible 60 to 70 kt ones in places?

It's hard to tell really, I don't think you are far off.

Strong to gale force winds now affecting many coastal areas, nothing much of note yet with gusts generally about 55mph or so.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

21st OWS have a special weather statement out:

post-6667-0-17983600-1325686168.gif

High level turbulence:

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_UL-TURBULENCE-STANDARD_42.gif?{ts%20

post-6667-0-17983600-1325686168_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City

Is the area its going to hit nailed on? If so, it looks like my area and surrounding wont be getting the brunt. Is that right?

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Quite a mass of cloud with this system, moving pretty rapidly as well. The cold front will arrive over the NW of Scotland within the next few hours.

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

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post-9615-0-43434600-1325686787_thumb.gi

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

I think they were pretty close! It's a pity TORRO and UKASF aren't manned at the moment as it would be interesting to see what their take on it is. I see Nick F is lurking, perhaps you could give us an expert view on tonight's possibilities Nick?

looks like we might have to batten down could get a bit wild two night again it seems

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Surface predictions for 18z this evening, the cold front lying from N Ireland to Central Scotland.

post-9615-0-68138200-1325687210_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

Oh for goddsake I want a break :) its been constant wind since Oct here and yesterday was the utter pits. Power went off early and came on late at night, and the NOISE of that wind was awesome. I want some nice normal winter weather - liek 6ft of snow and I want it NOW !

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Posted
  • Location: Mathry, Pembrokeshire, 140m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: Anything not grey and damp
  • Location: Mathry, Pembrokeshire, 140m a.s.l

Weather here just taken a turn for the worse. It has been windy today (20-35mph) but has just gotten windier, squally showers blowing in with gusts close to 50mph. Pressure has dropped about 2.5hpa in the last hour. Temp is relativly stable at 8.7C.

I have been on a stable roof this morning repairing damage from monday night. Thankfully the wind held off long enough to complete the job.

Edited by Treiagonaut
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