Model Output Discussion - 8th - 14th January

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi Blast,

What track would be most favourable for this low to enable a good result for coldies? Also, with other pieces of the weather puzzle fitting together, where in your opinion would the next attack of cold come from?

Questions, questions.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Bear with me as I post 3 links.

00z GFS moves to this

ECM 00z moves to this, very similar to 00z GFS

06z moves to this

Note the trough's position under Greenland, 06z pushes it further east and also the trough depth southward is shallower. This prevents and fails to lead to possible shortwav ejecting SE as pressure buolds to NE.

Edited January 8, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Stuie]

Looking at the jet stream from the GFS in FI. In regards to Steve Murr`s post yesterday, the stream finally swings round to a NE flow with a "camel hump" earlier in the run?

[Frosty.]

Still no sign of a cold spell from the Gfs 06z and Ecm 00z, I fail to see what all the fuss is about regarding the ecm, we end up with a high close to the west with a gentle nwly flow, the gfs 06z resets to average zoneality in FI with a few watered down polar maritime shots but nothing to raise any interest yet from the models, no sign of an easterly or a northerly from the op runs, just more of the same sub standard winter fare for the BI..it's just the same old rubbish we have had this winter so far.. i'm not going to become mr popular by saying this but I just can't see a cold spell for a while yet.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Frosty039

[gottolovethisweather]

Bear with me as I post 3 links.

00z GFS moves to this

ECM 00z moves to this, very similar to 00z GFS

06z moves to this

Note the trough's position under Greenland, 06z pushes it further east and also the trough depth southward is shallower. This prevents and fails to lead to possible shortwav ejecting SE as pressure buolds to NE.

Thanks but I'm still confused. I take it, the less vigorous it gets the better? Am I right?

I think I'm just struggling to see where the lows actually are on those charts. Anyway, good to see you posting charts again, most helpful except for dunces like me.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

I was just thinking the exact same thing? There's nothing that interests me on the models this morning.. :lol:

I've only been a member on here for 6 years and the model output this morning is about as underwhelming for cold prospects as it gets, I think there are some very misleading posts suggesting a potential freeze that have no substance and will only confuse. For the time being at least, there is no sign of snow or frost, just more of the same but not as mild as christmas at least.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Frosty039

[J10]

Net Weather has got a 7 day history - so if we take 500HPa as an example.

For T+162. (To Next Sunday 00:00)

GFS

http://nwstatic.co.u...162/h500slp.png (06Hz today)

http://nwstatic.co.u...168/h500slp.png (00Hz today)

http://nwstatic.co.u...174/h500slp.png (18Hz yesterday)

http://nwstatic.co.u...180/h500slp.png (12Hz yesterday)

ECM

http://nwstatic.co.u.../ecm500.168.png (00Hz today)

http://nwstatic.co.u.../ecm500.168.png (12Hz yesterday)

I forgot to mention by by putting those links in the address bar, and amending the dates and model types you can find all runs which are available, from T+0 to T+384 for GFS, and T+0 to T+240 for ECM.

[Backtrack]

I've only been a member on her for 6 years and the model output this morning is about as underwhelming for cold prospects as it gets, I think there are some very misleading posts suggesting a potential freeze that have no substance and will only confuse. For the time being at least, there is no sign of snow or frost, just more of the same but not as mild as christmas at least.

Agreed, I've not been here as long as you, but I understand the models enough to draw the conclusion that there isn't much been shown at the minute in terms of cold, even in FI.

I can however see that the charts are full of potential for cold that could happen later in the month, this dependent on the jet stream and polar vortex. Both of which look reluctant to shift.

[bluearmy]

if you cant find anything of note in the 00z ecm run, you really need to check your calendar and also the output from a week ago.

i note the countryfile forecast for the end of the week used a chart very much like the ecm rather than the ukmo and peter gibbs was keen to emphasise the chances that the big low was going nowhere fast and blocking was more than likely to follow.

time to look at the parallel gefs for the 06z. the normal ones were a curates egg - trending to drop the troughing into europe as much as keeping the status quo. plus weak mean ridging pushing into the svaalbard area.

EDIT: at T192 (which is crucial on the parallel as they run at a higher resolution up till this point), the 06z are not as good as the 00z were with a stronger jet. i guess this was to be expected, looking at the 06z op run.

Edited January 8, 2012 by bluearmy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks but I'm still confused. I take it, the less vigorous it gets the better? Am I right?

I think I'm just struggling to see where the lows actually are on those charts. Anyway, good to see you posting charts again, most helpful except for dunces like me.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

The LP that moves to southern tip of Greenland the least east it gets the better and also the trough extending to its south the further down the better.

BFTP

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

if you cant find anything of note in the 00z ecm run, you really need to check your calendar and also the output from a week ago.

i note the countryfile forecast for the end of the week used a chart very much like the ecm rather than the ukmo and peter gibbs was keen to emphasise the chances that the big low was going nowhere fast and blocking was more than likely to follow.

time to look at the parallel gefs for the 06z. the normal ones were a curates egg - trending to drop the troughing into europe as much as keeping the status quo. plus weak mean ridging pushing into the svaalbard area.

I tend to look at things from a half empty perspective but i'm feeling strangely confident that the next 48 hours are going to be very busy in this thread BA.

The ECM op & control both very interested in sending a plume into the Arctic and blowing up heights across the Arctic and dropping into Scandy.

I'll wager the GFS is looking very differentby tomorrow!

Edited January 8, 2012 by happy days

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've only been a member on here for 6 years and the model output this morning is about as underwhelming for cold prospects as it gets, I think there are some very misleading posts suggesting a potential freeze that have no substance and will only confuse. For the time being at least, there is no sign of snow or frost, just more of the same but not as mild as christmas at least.

Sorry Karl but what a nonsense post mate and as misleading a post as is possible. So these runs are as underwhelming as the ones shown during Christmas week? Sorry but there is loads of potential in these runs and a sure sign of change if they come to fruition.

What is underwhelming about this. Also what is likely to be the next move from here? HP ridging down and building to NE, shortwave extending down over UK on -ve tilt which will do what next?

http://nwstatic.co.u...ecmt850.168.png

We have big improvements, yes there's more runs needed and more firming up but lets not mislead to most underwhelming charts for cold.

BFTP

Edited January 8, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SP1986]

I think the issue is here, that some members are expecting a repeat of last December. This type of reliance on the models bringing up this type of scenario will inevitably lead to disappointment.

That explains alot in the nature of defeatest posts.

I someone who has no allegiances to the outcome (ie I don't care if it gets cold or mild, that doesn't interest me), I can see potential for cold judging by the models, but not severe cold, but calls for disappointing runs, are a little wayward too, as that is not really the case.

It actually is a case of taking the mid-point.

[Frosty.]

Agreed, I've not been here as long as you, but I understand the models enough to draw the conclusion that there isn't much been shown at the minute in terms of cold, even in FI.

I can however see that the charts are full of potential for cold that could happen later in the month, this dependent on the jet stream and polar vortex. Both of which look reluctant to shift.

Hi Backtrack,

I can also see some of the potential you mentioned but nowhere near enough concrete evidence that we are going to see a radical pattern change, and hardly anyone is mentioning the week ahead, it's like it doesn't even exist and there will be a big high influencing southern england so a dry spell with some fog and maybe slight frost or ground frost and plenty of sunshine but then probably becoming more unsettled with temps close to average so unless there is a significant cold spell during the second half of january, the CET will show that january was yet another milder than average month so there will only be february left to bring some respectability to winter 2011/12.

Edited January 8, 2012 by Frosty039

[Cloud 10]

EDIT: at T192 (which is crucial on the parallel as they run at a higher resolution up till this point), the 06z are not as good as the 00z were with a stronger jet. i guess this was to be expected, looking at the 06z op run.

Seems to be stuck at 192hrs which is probably just as well!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I think the issue is here, that some members are expecting a repeat of last December. This type of reliance on the models bringing up this type of scenario will inevitably lead to disappointment.

That explains alot in the nature of defeatest posts.

I someone who has no allegiances to the outcome (ie I don't care if it gets cold or mild, that doesn't interest me), I can see potential for cold judging by the models, but not severe cold, but calls for disappointing runs, are a little wayward too, as that is not really the case.

It actually is a case of taking the mid-point.

??

Which members are expecting a repeat of last Dec Ste?I dont see evidence of that.

Anyway,an Acrtic HP dropping into Scandy and avecting siberian air SW will make laast Dec look like a heatwave.)

[SMU]

I think I write this every year-

the 06z + 06Z suite of ensembles are ALWAYS without exception a chocolate teapot when it comes to Scandi High Pressure-

For whatever reason the 06z overruns the pattern flattens it off & the ensembles are worst than useless, -

I think I have made this same post for the last 4 years-

06z = http://images.codingforcharity.org/dmp/20110326/demotivational_poster_Failboat_20110326092254_reg.jpg

S

Edited January 8, 2012 by Steve Murr

[SLEETY]

Still no sign of a cold spell from the Gfs 06z and Ecm 00z, I fail to see what all the fuss is about regarding the ecm, we end up with a high close to the west with a gentle nwly flow, the gfs 06z resets to average zoneality in FI with a few watered down polar maritime shots but nothing to raise any interest yet from the models, no sign of an easterly or a northerly from the op runs, just more of the same sub standard winter fare for the BI..it's just the same old rubbish we have had this winter so far.. i'm not going to become mr popular by saying this but I just can't see a cold spell for a while yet.

Well the BBC Countryfile forecaster mentioned it turning colder by the end of the week,with a block forming preventing the Atlantic from moving in.From then on it's to far ahead to be certain what will happen.Although he said it could be the start of something colder.

So how can you say gfs fl is correct when the BBC forecasters are uncertain what is going to happen beyond 4-5 days.

[Backtrack]

Hi Backtrack,

I can also see some of the potential you mentioned but nowhere near enough concrete evidence that we are going to see a radical pattern change, and hardly anyone is mentioning the week ahead, it's like it doesn't even exist and there will be a big high influencing southern england so a dry spell with some fog and maybe slight frost or ground frost and plenty of sunshine but then probably becoming more unsettled with temps close to average so unless there is a significant cold spell during the second half of january, the CET will show that january was yet another milder than average month so there will only be february left to bring some respectability to winter 2011/12.

People are for sure relying on the charts that are appearing in FI, where as last winter, people would probably moan if we posted charts in FI.

I think the 20th January onwards will be cooler. The strat warming is key here I think, February will be our month in terms of cold. This being said, the 12z GFS will probably do a stonker now. :lol:

Bottom line though - trend to cooler weather, nothing that cold being shown just yet. Signs are there.

[swilliam]

Still no sign of a cold spell from the Gfs 06z and Ecm 00z, I fail to see what all the fuss is about regarding the ecm, we end up with a high close to the west with a gentle nwly flow, the gfs 06z resets to average zoneality in FI with a few watered down polar maritime shots but nothing to raise any interest yet from the models, no sign of an easterly or a northerly from the op runs, just more of the same sub standard winter fare for the BI..it's just the same old rubbish we have had this winter so far.. i'm not going to become mr popular by saying this but I just can't see a cold spell for a while yet.

A bizarre post - does this not equate to cold weather - most of the UK below -8 uppers

What exactly are you expecting/hoping for?

[bluearmy]

I think I write this every year-

the 06z + 06Z suite of ensembles are ALWAYS without exception a chocolate teapot when it comes to Scandi High Pressure-

For whatever reason the 06z overruns the pattern flattens it off & the ensembles are worst than useless, -

I think I have made this same post for the last 4 years-

06z = http://images.coding...6092254_reg.jpg

S

you always 'slag off' the 06z run steve. i guess i was wondering if the new gefs would be better but given that the ensembles tend to reflect the themes of the operational we shouldnt be surprised to see flatter ens.

[Craigers]

I think I write this every year-

the 06z + 06Z suite of ensembles are ALWAYS without exception a chocolate teapot when it comes to Scandi High Pressure-

For whatever reason the 06z overruns the pattern flattens it off & the ensembles are worst than useless, -

I think I have made this same post for the last 4 years-

06z = http://images.coding...6092254_reg.jpg

S

You have steve and am i right that the 12z chart handles the blocking patterns better?

[Backtrack]

I think I write this every year-

the 06z + 06Z suite of ensembles are ALWAYS without exception a chocolate teapot when it comes to Scandi High Pressure-

For whatever reason the 06z overruns the pattern flattens it off & the ensembles are worst than useless, -

I think I have made this same post for the last 4 years-

06z = http://images.coding...6092254_reg.jpg

S

So basically you're saying the 06z is rubbish?

Well people say the 18z is rubbish as this is the 'pub run'

So that leaves us with the 12z and the 00z. I just don't believe that we can simply write off 50% of the data that's input into the GFS.

[johnholmes]

Below is the brief final paragraph of my latest pdf. In it I review each chart I used about 6 days ago to suggest that cold lovers might be happier towards the end of January.

The new pdf is long as its got various charts from 6 days ago and the ones from today or last evening so a lot of data which may take a time to upload.

So there we have how the charts I was using have changed or not changed over the last few days. Is it clearer as I suggested it should be? The answer is no its far from clear. Just my thoughts, so feel free to pick holes in them.

It would be fairer before you do this to actually look at the large pdf with all the charts from 6 days ago and the latest ones to see how the models are moving in that period.

Update 8 jan re lrf ideas from 6 days ago-8jan12.pdf

Edited January 8, 2012 by johnholmes

[Radiating Dendrite]

Stop looking beyond 4-5 days and taking what is being shown as being correct then you  you wouldn't feel so underwhelmed.If a professional forecaster like Peter Gibbs is talking up the prospect of things turning colder by the weekend then obviously their is a good chance something much colder could be on the way.

But the underwelming stuff is what is shown in the next 4/5 days, with high pressure over southern England. At least we are seeing some tentative signs of chang in the middle part of the runs.

[summer blizzard]

Starting off and the GFS6z is in line with the ensemble mean for the most part which indicates that despite being an operational outlier, it may the whole GFS6z that is wrong or has a bias.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

In terms of the charts we continue to see development of a Scandinavian High from ECWMF and GEM with GEM in my opinion being wrong in the latter stages.

The reason for my opinion is that yesterdays ECWMF12z had a low of 975mb deepening to 955mb at day 9 and 10 while the ECWMF 0z run has the Jet Stream dead despite the GEM0z being similar to the ECWMF12z yesterday.

In my opinion also the ECWMF has the jet stream too strong to the west of Greenland at day 8 as it deepens the low by 10mb (possible but not probable in my opinion).

ECWMF and GEM are nearly identical at day 7, so that is what i expect at day 7 which is where i draw the FI line at the moment.