Model Output Discussion - January 11th.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Until it all goes horribly wrong, we're going to try and open up a new thread on a daily basis to discuss the output from the various models; this being the first, coinciding with the daily 12z output.

Having read every post in the previous thread, I learnt it's definitely going to get colder, but also milder, and that the only thing stopping an easterly will be the absence of any winds from the east. So, exciting times indeed.

If your post is not related directly to the output of the various models, then please don't post in this thread. There is a parallel Model Mood Thread where you can post any general comments, moans, hopes, or gut feelings. It does look like it's going to be busy, so we won't be moving posts for people, and persistent offenders may have their posting ability removed.

[Summer Sun]

Not looking good so far the high pressure is refusing to budge

[k19]

If that very weak high pressure over eastern europe were to be stronger than predicted, I believe the high over us could very well cause height rises further north, possibly into greenland.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
I'll PM you.

[Matty M]

Despite some strange commentary earlier about the 6z being better?

Things look worse at T120. PV further east across Greenland while the jet is further north with a SW to NE tilt rather

than diving SE

Maybe we should be looking to the Northwest rather than the Northeast?

Edited January 11, 2012 by Matty M

[Harsh Climate]

EDIT: Hmm you might be right actually, we are missing that trigger low that cuts into our block dragging cold in from the east.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Harsh Climate

[swilliam]

Not looking good so far the high pressure is refusing to budge

More pertinently perhaps the Azores high is linking to the Scandi high - probably best not to say what is good or bad as well and just see what happens. Edited January 11, 2012 by swilliam

[jethro]

More pertinently perhaps the Azores high is linking to the Scandi high

Which would mean?????

For idiots like me and newbies, please add more in the way of explanation - sometimes it's like trying lip read in here.

[Radiating Dendrite]

At 120 on this run the jet is different, it is heading NE and not SE.

Will be interesting to see what happens from here.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[k19]

Which would mean?????

For idiots like me and newbies, please add more in the way of explanation - sometimes it's like trying lip read in here.

I can only imagine that would lead to a hugely elongated high stretching from south west of the uk up to scandinavia. I can't imagine it properly linking up and if it did I don't think it could stick around

EDIT: wording.

Edited January 11, 2012 by K.1000

[Brum Watcher]

the block breaks at t138 here comes the hp from the SW.

[snowmadchrisuk]

I think this run is looking good for longer term , the Atlantic can't break the block next week ....

[swilliam]

Which would mean?????

For idiots like me and newbies, please add more in the way of explanation - sometimes it's like trying lip read in here.

Which would mean that we are unlikely to get an undercutting low at the 1st attempt - we will need either a 2nd or 3rd attempt for this (obviously then at a later time) or multiple bouts of the Azores high building with WAA to our west to drag the ridge west (like pertubation 7 as a I pointed out earlier).

[Radiating Dendrite]

Jet is stronger and the we have yet another high to our south.

The block will struggle to hold, not that we are benefitting from it.

Only one run, we shall see if the ECM sticks to its guns.

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png

Great run if you like low cloud and drizzle in a sw'ly ............ I blame OON for starting a daily thread and tempting fate.

Massive difference from 06z......bin it

Edited January 11, 2012 by KTtom

[Harsh Climate]

There's no denying this is a poor run so far, let's hope its a mild outliar

[jethro]

Which would mean that we are unlikely to get an undercutting low at the 1st attempt - we will need either a 2nd or 3rd attempt for this (obviously then at a later time) or multiple bouts of the Azores high building with WAA to our west to drag the ridge west (like pertubation 7 as a I pointed out earlier).

Thank you.

I wasn't being awkward, just wanting a bit more info. I know all you model guru's know what you're talking about but there's an awful lot of folk like me who really know next to nowt - I'm limited to different coloured blobs, floating back and forth, not a clue what they translate to in terms of weather.

[Matty M]

On the 12z we are hoping the PV can be shunted by the oncoming massive Arctic high from Alaska.

So far in FI though that it's futile to even discuss.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

There's no denying this is a poor run so far, let's hope its a mild outliar

Maybe so but it does seem to back up the metoffice update of slowly getting milder towards to middle of next week. I am just hoping the overall trend remains the same (ie) the PV shown to be moving westwards ands cold flooding europe.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Matty M]

zip! haha

Well here is the NH view at 240

It had been looking like the mass of High over Arctic Siberia was heading towards Greenland but changed course in the lower res part.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Matty M

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12z very different again as early as 3/4 days out, we still aren't getting consistency.

BFTP

[sebastiaan1973]

UKMO is not looking good. The circulation in the Atlantic is too much from SW to NE instead of S tot N. A real shame.

Edited January 11, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[swilliam]

Thank you.

I wasn't being awkward, just wanting a bit more info. I know all you model guru's know what you're talking about but there's an awful lot of folk like me who really know next to nowt - I'm limited to different coloured blobs, floating back and forth, not a clue what they translate to in terms of weather.

You can see the result on the later output with the block tending to sink and we end up with Westerlies - might get something in FI but that is just guesswork beyond about 192hrs.

[weathergeek]

Thank you.

I wasn't being awkward, just wanting a bit more info. I know all you model guru's know what you're talking about but there's an awful lot of folk like me who really know next to nowt - I'm limited to different coloured blobs, floating back and forth, not a clue what they translate to in terms of weather.

LOL at "different coloured blobs, floating back and forth" - that's about where I'm at!! Blue - good, yellow - not good!!! Learning every day tho!!

H.

[SMU]

Its got to be said in the balance of fair posts-

The UKMO & GFS are a mile away from the 00Z ECm tonight & are equally a mile away from anything Cold from any direction-

We are getting massive ups & downs- so we on that rollercoaster again!

S

[AWD]

UKMO and 12z GFS look very similar IMO, with a SW NE tilted jet! Certainly a lot different from both their 00z outputs!