Model Output Discussion - January 11th.

[andy_leics22]

This is rubbish Dave and you know it. I remember full well what was said.

*DING DING DING* In the blue corner, from Peterborough, England.. DAAAAAVE.

In the red corner, from Staffordshire, IIAAAANN BRRROOOWWNN.

All joking aside... I really do think the longer term outlook is heading towards a cold and dry set up. Possibly a cold and snowy one but the models are all over the place at the moment and nobody really knows.

[Snowmadsam]

Well I finally got it finished-the pdf I promised this morning.

Longer term outlooks-thur 12 jan 12.pdf

Thanks John, great read.

Less than 2 hours to 12z wonder if things will turn around

I am sure that something wintry will come soon just a matter of waiting

Edited January 12, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[feb1991blizzard]

wrong. the archive runs are on meteociel. ian, whilst initially disbelieving of the evolution, was on board once the pattern came within range of ecm and the other 10 day models. once it was coming, he was as much a 'ramper' as anyone.

Appologies, i retract my above statement then, it begs the question though, looking at the ECM runs, what the panic was all about, the ECM from very early showed a very cold outlook, although at first via different synoptics, and i did remember the GFS right, it modelled it in all the way from deep FI, i remember being more worried from an IMBY snow perspective than whether deep cold was going to arrive or not, but as i had only really been model watching for the previous cold spell and Jan 2010 i didnt want to count my chickens before they hatched..

[nick sussex]

The debate regarding the episode of the ECM tracking a piece of the PV south too far west last December can be seen here:

http://www.meteociel...your=9&annee=2010

Follow that from 120hrs, this is a different synoptic pattern from its current output, in Dec 2010 we had a strong Greenland high and there was deep cold within this piece of the PV as it dropped south out of the Arctic forced on its way by that high.

If you take the current situation this is altogether different with no strong Greenland high, this low will not have that same embedded cold , so you're always looking for some added insurance ie presume what can go wrong through experience and what we need to see to mitigate against that scenario.

I've seen many set ups whereby the low becomes slow moving near the UK in this case the cold is often stuck to the nw, yes you can see all being well the ECM 240hrs we've seen today would go on later to sink that trough well to the south, what happens if it doesn't?

You always need added insurance with any cold spell, especially in the UK.

I totally resent someone calling me biased when I'm simply pointing out that the best thing for the whole UK is the low centred further east to allow for this circumstance.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Advance notice of a new thread starting at 4pm. I can hardly wait.

[SMU]

Advance notice of a new thread starting at 4pm. I can hardly wait.

just a thought-

why not do 330 inline with the start of the GFS12z...

regards Steve

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Oh - because I thought it started coming out at 4pm.

I'm nothing if not proactive - so 3.30 it shall be.

[Snowmadsam]

Advance notice of a new thread starting at 4pm. I can hardly wait.

me neither....haha hope its easier tonight for the team

hope 12z is good, we need something to keep us entertained

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Here we go - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72218-model-output-discussion-january-12th/