Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[ITSY]

yup no major differences coming out from GFS - still sticking firmly to its guns. its showdown time clearly, but lets wait to see how GFS develops, only in the early stages of the 06Z so far. round 1000

EDIT: slightly better amplification and jet orientation at 150?

Edited January 13, 2012 by ITSY

[Timmytour]

That trough causes problems later on though as it shoots off north when the ECM tries to bring it down over the UK

GFS bings it further south now....doesn't it?

[ukpaul]

Splits the PV earlier this run but still has the jet stream fired up to push it further East than ECM. Has it stalled to our North?

[k19]

GFS not backing down.

you can see clear difference at 120h GFS has a biglow coming off the ES much faster which will prevent any ridging from the Atlantic.

Over to the UKMO/ECM.

Disagree slightly here

The low to our north is pushing much more troughing into scandinavia, if that were slightly further west, it would be getting closer to ecm

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

The major difference between the 2 seems to be the low ejected from the US which refuses to head NE up the western side of Greenland as per ECM. Without that there is no scope for pressure rise up to southern greenland and therefore the pattern remains flat...ECM must change in line with GFS tonight...surely

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I seriously hope ecm hasn't been leading us up the garden path because GFS and its ensembles clearly are not entertaining the notion of ANY height rises over GReenland.

UKMO out shortly.

Edited January 13, 2012 by happy days

[gottolovethisweather]

Please add a bit more detailed analysis guys n gals. No more one liners. EXPLANATIONS ABOUT EXPECTATIONS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME.

Sorry mods.

gottolovethisweather

[dvdfjojo]

Thanks for the explanation everyone - for some reason I was thinking that the models wouldn't take account of predicted stratospheric warming until that warming had actually happened and could be keyed as part of the input data for a run.

[danm]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1381.png

The major difference between the 2 seems to be the low ejected from the US which refuses to head NE up the western side of Greenland as per ECM. Without that there is no scope for pressure rise up to southern greenland and therefore the pattern remains flat...ECM must change in line with GFS tonight...surely

Must it? Both ECM and the GFS are sticking doggedly their outputs, no one can yet say who is which is wrong and which is right.

I actually think there has been a very subtle shift in the 12z towards the UKMO and ECM. More troughing into Scandi, slightly more of a NW-SE tilt, slightly more ridging of heights towards Greenland. The pattern looks less flat. But still some way off what the ECM is showing at the same time frame.

Edited January 13, 2012 by danm

[chionomaniac]

Aternoon all. We are seeing the GFS 12Z playing around with splitting a lobe of PV off and it heading towards Scandi. That to me is a little step closer to the ECM.

[ITSY]

as us being said, the movement of the low pressure in Canada is absolutely vital - if it skirts west up greenland we're in a la ECM, if it is pushed into the northern mid atlantic then good bye to hieght rises! minimal differences at this stage generally - Israel and Lebanon get the cold! thats a turn up for any Middle Eastern members we may (or may not) have!

[mountain shadow]

UKMO all important, only around ten minutes to wait, will it side with the ECM, GFS or a half way house?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

All we need to see is the GFS moving things West then we would be in pretty much the same set up as the ECM.

[weathe20]

From a newbie, I think the earlier output of the GFS 12z has moved towards the ECM.

[ITSY]

UKMO looks more like ECM at +96 than GFS, with the high further south and the cold in place over Europe...lets see

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Agreed phil huge difference between ECM GFS ukmo will be vitally important tonight.

I really hope GFS is barking up the tree!!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

New thread opening shortly.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Spot the new thread.