Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[Summer Sun]

Well once again we have to turn to FI for something cold 228hrs and beyond looks great for cold.

[Cheshire Freeze]

One thing that I'm noticing is how the GFS ops seem very bullish about reinvigorating the PV around 8-10 days out; removing height rises of the pole. Against background signals this doesn't seem likely to me? Then again, the weather rarely conforms to the script.

[The PIT]

ECM 216-240 - how would everyone do on snow if it happened (region wise)?

Pass out in surprise. Funnily enough gfs 12 oz at t384 has a very similar chart.

In the reliable time frame nothing much too look forward unless you're like photographing frost.

Edited January 12, 2012 by The PIT

[john mac]

Are you sure you have that the right way round? The ECM is the model that has picked a pattern and stuck with it for the last couple of days, the GFS has given differing results for the op and a much more variable output from its ensembles as opposed to the ECM. I'm looking fr consistency as things move into a more reliable timeframe and, so far, it's provided that (now, having said that, it's bound to flip totally for the next run!)

I have to agree, the GFS has thrown up every possible outcome pretty much. The ECM had a blip the other day but since then has been pretty much consistant with its outputs.

[nick sussex]

NOGAPS, bringing out the big guns now Nick.

That is a nice looking run from the NOGAPS though.

The thing that confuses me is I thought the PV was meant to be moving over Baffin? Why is the GFS trying to shunt it over the North Pole and then the North Atlantic?

Lol!

Yes everyone knows my thoughts on the NOGAPS but I had to move into Operation Emergency Strawclutching!

Below is the GEM for 144hrs, its not out yet on meteociel so I can't decide what category that should go in without seeing its view further north.

http://moe.met.fsu.e...sure&hour=144hr

Having viewed that against the GFS upstream I'd put it into trending passable!

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[bobbydog]

Yes GFS is horrible but TBH Nick I have a feeling it has had this one correct for a couple of days now. The ECM has been much more prone to swings for a while now IMO.

is it really that horrible? the trend of the GFS has generally been towards cold. many different ways to get there after about +120 and always in FI but a trend nonetheless...

[locneverstop]

Pass out in surprise. Funnily enough gfs 12 oz at t384 has a very similar chart.

In the reliable time frame nothing much too look forward unless you're like photographing frost.

But frost is something we have been seriously lacking, so a minor celebration at least? With daytime maxima around 3/4 celcius in the midlands over the weekend according to model output, I am quite happy with the current situation when you take into consideration the winter so far.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I must be reading things wrong because the UKMO at 144h looks poor for cold prospects with the northern arm in the control and very little if any energy going south,can't see a fast track to cold from that?

The less said about GFS the better.

[Cheshire Freeze]

is it really that horrible? the trend of the GFS has generally been towards cold. many different ways to get there after about +120 and always in FI but a trend nonetheless...

GFS FI holds no water with me I'm afraid, the only cold we get is cold at the back end of depressions with a mid Atlantic high not able to locate to Greenland due to PV/ jetstream issues- the cold you see would be watered down considerably as the timeframe neared.....a bit like December.

The only thing that would interest me at this point in winter is a pressure rise to the east/Greenland/Iceland/or a link up of Greenland to Scandi highs.

This winter is rapidly heading down the route to utter garbage, we've been chasing the carrot for 3 weeks or so now, Steve is right when he says that timing is everything and things simply aren't falling into place from a temporal perspective. The ECM to show the same dross as the GFS and a lowering of hemispheric heights will be the nail for the best part of Jan......IMO of course.

Edited January 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[bobbydog]

GFS FI holds no water with me I'm afraid, the only cold we get is cold at the back end of depressions with a mid Atlantic high not able to locate to Greenland due to PV/ jetstream issues- the cold you see would be watered down considerably as the timeframe neared.....a bit like December.

The only thing that would interest me at this point in winter is a pressure rise to the east/Greenland/Iceland/or a link up of Greenland to Scandi highs.

that may be true but the GFS is not always wrong...

[HotCuppa]

he never said it was always wrong infact i dont remember anyone saying that at all. however for me its performance as been quite literally all over the place from run to run, not sure how you can use that scenario in fi as some sort trend. ECM as been a lot more reliable apart from the blip, run to run gfs as been very much unreliable..thats my take anyway.

[UV-RAY]

IMO the GFS is barking up the wrong tree, it's thrown every possible scenario at us over the last few days. As long as the ECM keeps with the same trend, and to a lesser extent the UKMO, then I'll remain upbeat about cold prospects for us.

[SMU]

What a total mess- infact probably the biggest mess of ensembles since I think I can remember-

The GFS Ensemble suite at 150 has NO trends, no consistency- its AWFUL

No wonder its bottom of the league currently-

The UKMO at least is consistent in the 72 / 96 range- ( & incidentally has -6c uppers at 72 in SE)- at 144 UKMO is balanced with northern energy up against the scandi block & energy going underneath- although it doesnt look 'classical'

I await the ECM- although probably anothe 2/3 days to get a clear picture

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

BOBBYDOG- in opposition to the GFS op, this is what we need to be seeing-PTB 18. A proper height rise around Greenland.

Leads to energy undercutting the block eventually, locking us into a cold pattern from the N/NE

Another good one........

Note the pressure rise around Greenland and energy underpinning the block

Now compare this to the 12z operational....

Lower heights to the north and around Greenland with a stronger jet. Mid lat high sat in Atlantic with no way of going north.

Edited January 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

What a total mess- infact probably the biggest mess of ensembles since I think I can remember-

The GFS Ensemble suite at 150 has NO trends, no consistency- its AWFUL

No wonder its bottom of the league currently-

The UKMO at least is consistent in the 72 / 96 range- ( & incidentally has -6c uppers at 72 in SE)- at 144 UKMO is balanced with northern energy up against the scandi block & energy going underneath- although it doesnt look 'classical'

I await the ECM- although probably anothe 2/3 days to get a clear picture

S

Yes,agree 100% on GFS it hasn't got clue by the looks.

Again though the UKMO looks as you say anything but classical as the block is getting pushed back by 144 by the PV energy.

I'm afraid its a pretty muddled and less than convincing picture this evening Steve.

[Paul]

Since the mid-range stuff is jumping all over the shop right now, maybe it's worth a look at the climatic model (CFS), and for Feb it's strengthened the cold signal in the last few days..

[Matty M]

UKM appears more positive than the GFS outlook with better prospects further north and similar to the 0z ECM

We see heights moving west towards Greenland at T144.

And lets be honest the UKM has been the most consistent of late, although it does have the benefit of only going out to T144

It has been signalled though that any feed from the east thereafter will only have a very limited cold pool to tap in to.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Matty M

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKM appears more positive than the GFS outlook with better prospects further north and similar to the 0z ECM

We see heights moving west towards Greenland at T144.

And lets be honest the UKM has been the most consistent of late, although it does have the benefit of only going out to T144

It does now you mention it look very similar to 0z ecm matty although i was less than convinced by the way the ecm 0z op run evolved.

Maybe there will be some consistency this evening from the euros.

[john mac]

What a total mess- infact probably the biggest mess of ensembles since I think I can remember-

The GFS Ensemble suite at 150 has NO trends, no consistency- its AWFUL

No wonder its bottom of the league currently-

The UKMO at least is consistent in the 72 / 96 range- ( & incidentally has -6c uppers at 72 in SE)- at 144 UKMO is balanced with northern energy up against the scandi block & energy going underneath- although it doesnt look 'classical'

I await the ECM- although probably anothe 2/3 days to get a clear picture

S

Yep the ensembles definately come under the pony and trap categiry again with absolutely no trend at all!!

[johnholmes]

another jh pd

this one to compare the 06z and 12z GFS runs at 3 time intervals, no special choice T+72=reasonably close ahead, T+144 for next week and further out T+240.

Make your own minds up please.

differences 06-12z thur 12 jan 12.pdf

[stewfox]

BOBBYDOG- in opposition to the GFS op, this is what we need to be seeing-PTB 18. A proper height rise around Greenland.

Leads to energy undercutting the block eventually, locking us into a cold pattern from the N/NE

Another good one........

Note the pressure rise around Greenland and energy underpinning the block

Now compare this to the 12z operational....

Lower heights to the north and around Greenland with a stronger jet. Mid lat high sat in Atlantic with no way of going north.

These look live very good charts, re your other post do you think they are not going to verify ?

[lorenzo]

Interesting to find out what NOAA input make of todays runs in their summary later, so much difference between them. A slow fuse on that 12z GFS Run, very flat in the near future..

Digging around found this stonker in the further reaches of the run, pleasing on the eye..

[Cheshire Freeze]

These look live very good charts, re your other post do you think they are not going to verify ?

As you can see the good PTB members that I have posted share one characteristic....The PV around Canada/west Greenland is disrupted enough to allow the formation of the heights around Greenland with a far more dynamic PV situation. For the operational, the core of the west lobe of PV is situated much further east which precludes these height rises and results in a much tighter jet stream and organised PV.

As for verification, I have no idea but it has been a trend of the GFS operationals of late to re-organise the PV which would essentially lead to less favourable ridging i.e Greenland height rises. It well be a situation where the ECM and GEFS ensembles are playing catch up with the touted GFS operational synoptic set up. Any wobble from the ECM this evening and IMHO it's game set and match to the GFS on this one.

Edited January 12, 2012 by CreweCold

[cooling climate]

Lol you can almost read the script, a few days ago we wanted the ECM to fall in line with the GFS

and the UKMO but it proved to be correct and now when we want it to be correct it will probably do

a U turn and fall in line with the GFS.

With such high pressure building across northern Siberia and into western Russia I would have

thought it would have a big impact on our weather through either northerly or easterly synoptics.

We missed one opportunity with a possible easterly because of two much energy from the vortex

and we may be about to miss another for the same reason.In a winter such as we are having these opportunities will not come along often.

The heights we are seeing build across the eastern half of the Arctic are I think a product of the

stratosphere warmings and will not stick around forever and I would say if we do not see a cold

pattern establish over our segment of the northern hemisphere by or before the end of January then

we may well have missed the boat for this winter.

[phil nw.]

The 12zGFS ens graph now seems to make some sense,perhaps a late update,

The trend to a brief milder spell next week,then colder again but not excessively so.