Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[bluearmy]

you may not believe it but the GEFS ens mean early T200's now mirrors the ecm ens mean, trough driving to our east. the trend thereafter on the mean is for a further trough to sink south just to our west which turns the flow more sw. that has been a constant on ncep ens means post T240 over the pst day or two. if correct, this is not the end of the world, depending on how far south the initial trough gets. those members that build an atlantic ridge are very good. i think its not worth going too much further than this initial troughing. we still need agreement on where its likely to set up. what odds that the 12z ecm suite drops it, now that gefs has retrogressed it into agreement !!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=21&mode=0&carte=1

[ChartViewer]

The 12zGFS ens graph now seems to make some sense,perhaps a late update,

The trend to a brief milder spell next week,then colder again but not excessively so.

Hi Phil or we could reverse that last sentance to milder turn ing to a cooler spell this weekend and then going milder again as per the whole of December and early Jan

Im fed up with the models today...Last night i thought that is it we are seeing the PV not reacting to the SSW as it cant force its way to break up the PV and that energy driving the jet NE. Certainly thought we were seeing a pattern of runs showing azores ridge north jet going zonal and nothing that interesting for coldies.

However the ECM decides to go back to a colder look and the UKMO isnt that shabby........Think everyone is getting very weary of the model watching lately with all these twists and turns!!!...Then GFS 12Z shows that....Shambles!!!

Regards

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012011212/ECH1-72.GIF?12-0

ECM still in tandem with UKmet-

S

[ChartViewer]

http://www.meteociel...CH1-72.GIF?12-0

ECM still in tandem with UKmet-

S

Saw that Steve also T96 seems to back the PV west again?.....could be interesting for coldies but who knows these days!

Regards

[nick sussex]

Its hard to believe there can be this much disagreement at 96hrs regarding energy off that PV on the eastern side of Greenland.

The ECM will not back the GFS 12hrs with it holding energy further west so its now to see whether it goes with its morning trend in the later output.

[Tim Bland]

Seems to be ejecting energy se from the PV over Greenland, this can only be a good thing!

Epic ECM as Steve would say! Even better than the 00z IMO as there is more room for error

Edited January 12, 2012 by Tim Bland

[ukpaul]

JMA looks fun, completely different but is it picking up something important or not?

Edited January 12, 2012 by ukpaul

[Matty M]

ECM alot better looking than the UKM at T144hr

totally different view of things in the Arctic in particular

[nick sussex]

JMA looks fun, completely different but is it picking up something important or not?

Thats very much like the mornings ECM, the key is the PV splits and thats what we want to see from the ECM 168hrs.

Amen to the ECM good looking 168hrs! PV split.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[ChartViewer]

Thats very much like the mornings ECM, the key is the PV splits and thats what we want to see from the ECM 168hrs.

And split it seems to do Nick

[cooling climate]

Can not see a split taking place at 168 as heights to the east have fallen away. Hope I am wrong.

The GFS at the t144 stage has much better heights to the east.

YES. big sign of relief.

Edited January 12, 2012 by cooling climate

[Matty M]

It's all looking quite good at T168 with heights building in the Arctic circle and pushing the PV west out of Greenland.

[nick sussex]

And split it seems to do Nick

Its good to see but the GFS needs to do the mother of all backtracks!

Not to use a poor pun but their poles apart, one model is going to end up looking very silly come tomorrow.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[lorenzo]

Psychic ability their Nick, the ECM heard you, much different from the GFS 12z, a clear split..

[Matty M]

Can not see a split taking place at 168 as heights to the east have fallen away. Hope I am wrong.

The GFS at the t144 stage has much better heights to the east.

Ya messing? That high in the GFS is only going to slow things down and make things more difficult, don't go chasing

lost hopes. ECM miles better for cold hopes at T168!

[SMU]

Its game set & match for an Easterly tonight- well at least under 8 days-

the best we get is the Cold Air getting towards Germany at 144- before the 'flat' jet moves East to blow the high away-

The ECM is getting cold at 168- & for fear of saying the same over & over again-

a ridge to greenland will be the route- whether that be Easterly or Northerly- or as mix or the 2

the good thing around the ECM at 144- 168 is the polar heights --

S

Edited January 12, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Sawel]

God almighty, good luck to any beginner reading this thread with the conflicting "commentary" above!

[Matty M]

Its game set & match for an Easterly tonight- well at least under 8 days-

the best we get is the Cold Air getting towards Germany at 144- before the 'flat' jet moves East to blow the high away-

The ECM is getting cold at 168- & for fear of saying the same over & over again- a ridge to greenland will be the route- whether that be Easterly or Northerly-

S

Ye much better letting this attempt slip and move away quickly now, we need to look northwest for the building blocks as you said

[kold weather]

Very neat looking ECM after a somewhat poor GFS (though it well worth noting it also gets there in the end, just takes another bite of the cherry!) with plenty of cold air aleady filtering down from the NW/N.

[Matty M]

Well ECM looks good, hopefully we can build some cold pool to our Northeast to make the synoptics worthwhile

[ChartViewer]

The T192 chart is surely huge for you lot!

Isnt that what Steve is looking for...ridging into Greenland?

God knows lol

Regards

Edited January 12, 2012 by ChartViewer

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hmmm Not sure about ECM 168 big pulse of energy swinging into Greenland could flatten the ridging high out.

Touch and go IMO.

But much better than GFS for sure.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?12-0

Finally here comes the Greenland Ridge-

After 8 days of ups & downs im Nailing it to the mast- I dont really care now- just throw me that ridge- just like Nov 2010 & we will all be happy-

S

Edited January 12, 2012 by Steve Murr

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

T192 is massive, that LP moving SSE and in comes an easterly over the top, 216 and 240 should be bitter cold from the east, the initial ridge then linkig with HP to our ENE.....that would be bingo. It all moves closer and 4 ECM runs now.

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[kold weather]

The only problem with the 12z ECM is that by 192hrs there really is a big lack of cold pooling to tap into, uppers are only around -4/5C for most of the country, so its not that cold of run, despite decent looking synoptics.

Still synoptically its decent enough, just would like to see more cold air around, that -4/5C stuff sourced from where it is will be touch and go in terms of being cold enough. Still get the synoptics and the cold will follow!