Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[Matty M]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?12-0

Finally here comes the Greenland Ridge-

After 8 days of ups & downs im Nailing it to the mast- I dont really care now- just throw me that ridge- just like Nov 2010 & we will all be happy-

S

Ye lad, it seems like a more realistic option and good for the long run.

All hail GP if this comes off. But my one hope is, and i know it would appear stupid given the model differences between GFS and ECM/UKM but generally models can forecast a high building over Greeny better than stuff to our northeast. So this may lead to higher % forecast accuracy in coming days.

ECM 216hrs is nice if a bit watery at that point but there is deeper cold building to the east ready to tap in to.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I cant see the 850's but i imagine the 216H ecm would be cold enough for some white stuff as the flow starts to turn NE?

[TEITS]

Just to help anyone confused in this thread here are a few points.

1. An E,ly is now looking very unlikely within the +144 timeframe.

2. If a cold spell does occur it looks more likely to develop with a NW,ly intially but if the trough sinks far enough S we shall have an E,ly on the N flank. This is progged to occur between +168/+192.

3. Big disagreement with the GFS/ECM but at this stage the combination of other models that support the ECM plus the consistency of the ECM makes me rather dubious of the GFS output.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...H1-216.GIF?12-0

Heavy Snow showers moving across the UK from the NE :bomb:

S

Edited January 12, 2012 by Steve Murr

[danm]

Nice looking t216 from the ECM 12z:

With the trough sinking further south, it gives us a possible shot of NE/E winds.

[ukpaul]

All that time looking for a Scandi high and Greenland comes and taps us on the shoulder......

To me the ECM, UKMO, JMA and even poor little no-mates NOGAPS may well have put together the most viable solution.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

216 is a stonker.....strong easterly flow. Look at hemsphere charts, this block will go nowhere for sometime...and I mean considerable time

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Isolated Frost]

...and 216 completes the jigsaw, a pretty awesome ECM... slightly more progressive than it's earlier suite, but the arctic profile went so favourably during this run... this is what happens when everything fits together. What's more notable is consistency from a model when comparing like for like runs... not seen this for a while

[Nick F]

The only problem with the 12z ECM is that by 192hrs there really is a big lack of cold pooling to tap into, uppers are only around -4/5C for most of the country, so its not that cold of run, despite decent looking synoptics.

Still synoptically its decent enough, just would like to see more cold air around, that -4/5C stuff sourced from where it is will be touch and go in terms of being cold enough.

I'd take the 12z ECM over the 12z GFS anyday though, as could lead to more interesting potential further down the line i.e. a cold easterly or northeasterly as the cold vortex sinks.

ECM seems pretty steadfast with the PV split over Greenland t+144 onwards with a cold vortex heading SE towards the North Sea and the main core of the PV retrogressing over Baffin and the Northern Territories of Canada. Given this solid stance, would back the ECM for now.

[Harsh Climate]

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?12-0

Finally here comes the Greenland Ridge-

After 8 days of ups & downs im Nailing it to the mast- I dont really care now- just throw me that ridge- just like Nov 2010 & we will all be happy-

S

So have you still given up on the easterly steve?? Ahh you've edited it out lol

[Frosty.]

God almighty, good luck to any beginner reading this thread with the conflicting "commentary" above!

That's because all the models are showing different things in FI, the trick is to know which model will be right and that's impossible at this range although the Ecm appears to be sticking to it's guns today although we are told never to compare the 00z with the 12z, apples and pears etc..

[danm]

The t216 from the ECM also shows us tapping into some much colder 850's once the winds swing round to the E/NE.

Looks good for snow showers to push in off the North Sea if this chart were to verify.

Edited January 12, 2012 by danm

[kold weather]

Ooohhhh I think some people are going to like the synoptics at 216hrs...

To say its poles apart from the GFS would be an understatement. The GFS and its ensembles are all doing a similar thing to the ECM BUT the big difference is the ECM is still taking the AO rather negative, the GFS keeps the PV intact so any attempt at ridghing gets squashed and flattened out. The GFS does try and go down the ECM route but there is a huge lack of support over the Arctic for it and it topples.

[mountain shadow]

ECM has been rock solid with the evolution for three days whilst the GFS has offered everything including the kitchen sink. ECM all fits in with the NOAA thoughtd as well as GP and RJS.

Surely the GFS can't be right now.........?

ECM three days ago...

http://nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120109/12/npsh500.240.png

Tonight...

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20120112/12/npsh500.168.png

Pretty impressive consistency.

Edited January 12, 2012 by mountain shadow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

All that time looking for a Scandi high and Greenland comes and taps us on the shoulder......

To me the ECM, UKMO, JMA and even poor little no-mates NOGAPS may well have put together the most viable solution.

It isn't a Greenland HP though that brings the cold set up, the arctic HP splits the vortex. It is a classic 'prolonged' cold synoptic build up if it comes off. Arctic Russian HP to back west to our NE and then onto Greenalnd eventually and any Atlantic activity to undercut.......but that is way in FI

BFTP

Edited January 12, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[danm]

The end of the ECM run at t240 shows us under some very cold 850's with a strong NE'erly wind. Synoptically ripe for snow showers.

Great run from the ECM tonight - far better than the GFS for cold/snow lovers.

[Paul]

If you're a cold fan then the ECM is pretty good tonight, but what's caught my eye too is the similarity to the Feb pressure anomaly I posted earlier from the CFS.

Tonights ECM @ 240 hrs:

CFS Pressure anomaly:

[JP1972]

ECM has been rock solid with the evolution for three days whilst the GFS has offered everything including the kitchen sink. ECM all fits in with the NOAA thoughtd as well as GP and RJS.

Surely the GFS can't be right now.........?

The fact that the ECM has stuck to its guns gives me hope that this model has got the situation nailed.

[danm]

And before this forum melts down into complete ramp, we must see where this run sits within the De Bilt esembles, it could be a complete outliar for all we know

I don't think anyone is in a particularly ramping mood at the moment due to all the uncertainty between the models. Very good run from the ECM though which should help keep hopes alive that things could turn a lot colder towards the end of the month.

[ukpaul]

It isn't a Greenland HP though that brings the cold set up, the arctic HP splits the vortex. It is a classic 'prolonged' cold synoptic build up if it comes off.

BFTP

True but it's the development towards Greenland that is dividing the 'good' models from the 'bad' at the moment, I'll be interested to see if the UKMO starts to model this as it will start to enter its timeframe tomorrow.

[SMU]

Ok Just one last one ....

The ridge to greenland shows that the energy in the atlantic is displaced NW up to greenland & will have associated energy moveing SE towards the UK as well-

IF the conditions are right over scandi IE a big high then a shortwave develops & goes under the block- Hence Easterly-

With the ECM the Low is to deep & there insnt any realy high pressure over scandi- THe good news is its going over the top across the pole- which will ensure the higher pressure is forcing the low South/South East-

Awsome ECM- 2 on the bounce- however I would like to see that 168 chart at 48... then we are in business-

216 & 240 Charts are VERY snowy for the NE , Scotland & partially the SE- with snow penetrating across to the West

Also Very cold uppers ganging up over Southern Scandi-

**REMEMBER the pressure over greenland DOESNT need to be some silly 1060MB high- just enough- even at 1030 to disrupt the flow- around it-

If people remember my 'sausage' pressure belt- thats not partularly high- but it does the perfect Job-

ECM tonight is 10./10 for SUSTAINED cold past day 7- why because there is a MASSIVE negative zonal wind anomaly around 70N . 20E ( some people used to refer to it as reverse zonality...)

S

Edited January 12, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Paul]

Just a reminder the model mood thread is the place for more chatty, non subjective views on the models - eg - this is a great run, or look at this chart it's a stonker/stinker type stuff. It's already pretty active so it's not like anyone will be talking to themselves in there, so please try to post into the relevant place.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72172-model-mood-thread/

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM has been rock solid with the evolution for three days whilst the GFS has offered everything including the kitchen sink. ECM all fits in with the NOAA thoughtd as well as GP and RJS.

Surely the GFS can't be right now.........?

No ramps as yet.......but no GFS is NOT right, not now, not 3 days ago.

BFTP

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The UKMO and ECM are pretty similar at T144, it's not hard to see how beyond T144 the UKMO could quite easily end up like tonights ECM. ECM and UKMO are the number 1 and 2 ranked models for verification, they are for a reason, so you have to back these 2 over the GFS tonight surely!!!!

Edited January 12, 2012 by No balls like Snow Balls

[UV-RAY]

ECM yet again leads the pack with another consistent if not a little progressive run, absolutely stunning runs if that was to be proven correct. The much fabled Murr Easterly could be very much on come February.

Edited January 12, 2012 by Seven of Nine