Model Output Discussion - January 12th.

[Zakos]

I fully expect the GFS 18z to at lest learn towards the ECM 12z, even if it does fail to bring cold to our shores.Time will tell...

[snowblues]

Surely if that pv over Greenland does start to shift west in the up and coming days, even if it is small amounts,looking at the hemispher chart on the ECM there is ahuge area of high pressure over W Russia,which to my lurking of the models has been ther for some while.With the high in the Atlantic,that cold has no where to go but UK.Thats my limited knowledge outcome.If only it was easy as all that.

[shedhead]

Glacier Point and Netweather probably getting the Havana cigars ready as so far they have nailed the Winter forecast up till now although 6 weeks to go but it is looking good with upstream patterns as they are.....However GFS yet to come on board although i reckon it will to an extent tonight....

Regards

Still way, way to early to be breaking out the Havana's, perhaps a small Hamlet would be acceptable, but that's about as far as it goes for now. That said, ECM looks a far more plausible run than GFS, but as we know the American model has really been struggling of late and it's 12z evolution looks very suspect beyond T+96hrs imo.

[Andy_]

Wow the ECM is totally stunning! Thats 4 consecutive, consistent runs in a row!

Now when you compare the GFS all over the place, up and down, undecisive mess, it's easy to decipher which model deserves credibility at this stage.

The only difference is that the Low Pressure appears to be further south... which is EXACTLY what we want to be seeing on each run if we want to see upgrades as it gets closer to the date.

We just need the GFS to come to it's senses now.

[SMU]

Ian- I dont need any one to say what would or wouldnt the ECM would bring-

216 + 240 will bring Heavy snow to the NE--- its a total no brainer!

S

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

well from 22nd to28 jan the cold lovers and snow will be in heaven at the moment!!!

[Timbo]

Ian- I dont need any one to say what would or wouldnt the ECM would bring-

216 + 240 will bring Heavy snow to the NE--- its a total no brainer!

S

not just the NE , all the East would see heavy drifting snow..

[Craigers]

ECM 12z is yorkshires members dream chart of the winter! If that trend keeps solid for next few days then surely gfs will back track on its self?

If this pattern happens then are we potentially looking at very cold february?

[Stuie]

How much does the jet stream play a part in a sustained period of cold? I would presume the quicker it is the quicker X weather comes and goes. The GFS still has the jet flying along at about 200km/h @ T192.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=5

[SP1986]

I looked at the ENS charts, I know people are sceptical of these, but they are ensembles and they often do give a broad pattern. They show in this instance a collaboration between the ECM and GFS patterns, which I think is quite plausible. That being that the WAA goes in Svalbard area, as per GFS suggestion, and allowing the Azores high to ridge, but this is then offset by a Greenland High, allowing a potent northwesterly/northerly into UK. I would actually go with this, like a halway house, rather than the ECM or the GFS way. Indeed with the AO and NAO sitting at neutral or slightly above in the means, I'd see this as a possibility Plenty more changes to transpire I'm sure. I'm not taking the GFS or the ECM at face value right now, no matter how likely/unlikely they may seem

[SLEETY]

Posted 2 minutes ago

ECM 12z is yorkshires members dream chart of the winter! If that trend keeps solid for next few days then surely gfs will back track on its self?

If this pattern happens then are we potentially looking at very cold february?

• 
  

Yes.With the Extensive Northern Blocking being shown on the ECM run we could be looking at a very prologned cold spell.If it verifies of course.The ECM ens are out soon so we should have a clearer picture soon.

Edited January 12, 2012 by SLEETY

[k19]

Posted 2 minutes ago

ECM 12z is yorkshires members dream chart of the winter! If that trend keeps solid for next few days then surely gfs will back track on its self?

If this pattern happens then are we potentially looking at very cold february?

• 
  

Yes.With the Extensive Northern Blocking being shown on the ECM run we could be looking at a very prologned cold spell.If it verifies of course.The ECM ens are out soon so we should have a clearer picture soon.

Sorry, where is the extensive northern blocking on our side of the hemisphere? It just seems like a weak ridge to our north, and greenland still isn't exhibiting a decent high

[Zenarcher]

Review on the weather models this evening,

GFS

Like this morning it wants to take a completely different path to most of the other models. At the start of next week it has high pressure over the UK. Looking ahead to the 20th when I expect the 'big change' to occur. The GFS builds up more and more high pressure. This would eventually lead to a colder spell of weather during the final week of January. I don't think anyone likes its current output it does show a cold spell but it means waiting.

JMA

It fully backs up the ECM's idea of things, its actually kinda amazing how much they agree up to 192 hours.

ECM

So what was the ECM saying then? It's the best run of them all this evening for cold weather fans. At the start of next week it has settled weather for the South but wet and windy weather for the North. Next Wednesday it begins to change things by building up high pressure in the Atlantic and creates a blocking by Thursday splitting PV half. This is great news and would leave the UK seeing cold weather. Not only is the ECM showing this but its been very consistent now showing this trend for the past 5 outputs something no other model has managed.

GEM

Sort of wants to agree with the GFS mainly high pressure over the UK and settled weather. It does show a change for next week though with high pressure building in the Atlantic. It's 12z run only goes to 144 hours so we don't know what it does after but I have a feeling it would show some sort of blocking occur.

NOGAPS

Another model today backing up the ECM's idea of things showing a blocking occur some time next week as well.

UKMO

It does support the ECM up to 120 hours and disagrees with the GFS completely at this point. After 120 hours the UKMO and ECM take slightly different paths. The UKMO shows the low pressure to the West of the UK meanwhile the ECM holds it back. The UKMO does show high pressure building in the Atlantic though and this is a good sign.

Overall this evening we are seeing good agreement with the ECM with all models showing something similar to it even at long range. Tonight the GFS is the only one left alone with its theory and cold lovers should be glad to hear this because with very little support its not looking good for the GFS at the moment.

Tonight to Monday Summary: It will be mainly settled between now and Saturday and it will get colder during the nights as well. On Sunday again settled weather ahead but windy over Western parts.

Tuesday to Thursday Summary: During Tuesday only the far South looks settled meanwhile most area's will be a bit windy and possibly wet. On Wednesday again the South seeing the best of the weather with settled conditions meanwhile the North will be wet and windy and the far Northern Scottish isles could see severe gales. On Thursday we see high pressure building up in the Atlantic and it starts to get much colder.

Thursday and Beyond: Most models hint on a change this could either bring mild and settled weather then eventually lead to colder weather or like most models this evening hint we could go straight into cold weather.

CHAT ROOM: It's there for you to use if you want LINK

[Paul]

Maybe now is a good time to sum up your current thoughts on the models in our new thread?

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72208-the-models-summed-up/

Go on, you know you want to!

[Tom Quintavalle]

No doubt Nick S. will soon post on NOAAs latest discussions on the 12z output and eagerly awaiting the ECM 12z ensembles.

Anyone have any news yet?

Regards,

Tom

[weathergeek]

Thanku so much for that summary weathermaster - as a newbie I could sense things were better but couldn't understand exactly why! So basically we're now just hoping for the GFS to come on board in the 18z?

H.

[bluearmy]

excellent ens from 12z ecm, retrogressing the trough a bit further than the 00z run. infact, the spreads on heights indicate a clustered shortwave running nw/se across the western side of the uk whilst the majority of members have the depression running nw/se into denmark. post T192 much of the country under mean uppers -4/-6c and thicknesses below 528 dam. looking at de bilt days 8 through 10, i think the mean flow is obviously off the north sea as too many members show max temps 3-5c with uppers below -6c.

the detailed ens will be more informative later when we can look at areas further inland.

[Zenarcher]

Thanku so much for that summary weathermaster - as a newbie I could sense things were better but couldn't understand exactly why! So basically we're now just hoping for the GFS to come on board in the 18z?

H.

Thanks and yes we are hoping it does come on board in the 18z even if it doesn't it could still do it later.

[lorenzo]

excellent ens from 12z ecm, retrogressing the trough a bit further than the 00z run. infact, the spreads on heights indicate a clustered shortwave running nw/se across the western side of the uk whilst the majority of members have the depression running nw/se into denmark. post T192 much of the country under mean uppers -4/-6c and thicknesses below 528 dam. looking at de bilt days 8 through 10, i think the mean flow is obviously off the north sea as too many members show max temps 3-5c with uppers below -6c. the detailed ens will be more informative later when we can look at areas further inland.

Great call BA, what UK time do the NAEFS and then detailed ENS update?

No doubt Nick S. will soon post on NOAAs latest discussions on the 12z output and eagerly awaiting the ECM 12z ensembles.

Let's hope that NOAA have Flood on duty this evening and he puts the GFS 12z in the shredder.. with 3 other 'lesser' models in line until 144, hard to see why JMA at present is classed as lesser, will be interesting to see how they view today. I don't think the comment will include ECM 12z - unsure?

[kold weather]

Yes the ECM ensemble means are pretty good:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

I'd like to see a little more in the way of northern blocking, but the signal for a cold shot is quite strong there...

[bluearmy]

the ecm postage stamps at T168 are absolutely set on a norwester, there are 24 members that drive the trough se into europe (which will have to happen if you want to see the op verify) and 21 members that keep the troughing further north and probably end up driving the pattern further east. with the op and control looking similar, thats the op solution as being in the favoured camp but certainly no 'done deal' as yet. i wonder how many members have a solution like the op beyond T168 ?

[Harve]

Wow the ECM is totally stunning! Thats 4 consecutive, consistent runs in a row!

Now when you compare the GFS all over the place, up and down, undecisive mess, it's easy to decipher which model deserves credibility at this stage.

The only difference is that the Low Pressure appears to be further south... which is EXACTLY what we want to be seeing on each run if we want to see upgrades as it gets closer to the date.

We just need the GFS to come to it's senses now.

I fail to see how the GFS is an "indecisive* mess" and "needs to come to its senses"? It seems equally plausible as the others from my view (that is to say, I don't know the teleconnections, which are no guarantee of a certain sypnotics, anyway). I'd be wary of interpreting models in the way you want to be, as that's likely to bring more disappointment if you ignore the fly in the ointment. Don't dismiss a model as lacking credibility simply because it shows variability / not what you want to see!

[Tom Quintavalle]

Yes the ECM ensemble means are pretty good:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1921.gif

I'd like to see a little more in the way of northern blocking, but the signal for a cold shot is quite strong there...

Yes KW,

Also good to see some decent and hopefully sustained low heights, finally breaking through to central and southern Europe, after what seems like an eternity.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Regards,

Tom

[Cloud 10]

@lorenzo

NAEFS has just updated.

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble NAEFS ( North American Ensemble Forecasting System)

[nick sussex]

A consistent picture from the NOAA maps with troughing over the UK and positive anomaly well to the west:

http://www.cpc.ncep....y/814day.03.gif

The PV located north of Hudson Bay.

This has been the same for several days now, lets hope the GFS operational run does the right thing.

Edited January 12, 2012 by nick sussex