Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[LomondSnowstorm]

The GFS moves more towards the UKMO than earlier, still not in line with the ECM by any means but a significant change in the right direction from earlier runs:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120113/12/144/npsh500.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120113/06/150/npsh500.png

Let's see what the other models say tonight.

[phil nw.]

You have to say,like it or not,GFS holds it`s line and keeps a very flat looking pattern with that Azores High sticking close by.

The energy off the Greenland low heights continues to go East and not South which would have forced the cold trough further into Europe.

The ECM from the 00z shows this.

We may still see some changes but time is getting short as the first part of the evolution is so close now.

Edited January 13, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[johnholmes]

Taking it even further than Phil has from another web site out to T+240 and attempting to get a 'level playing field' as to what each model is showing for the same time ahead, see pdf below.

gfs 12 and ec 00 on 12 jan for same time ahead.pdf

sorry not put the UK one on

Edited January 13, 2012 by johnholmes

[Timmytour]

Overall I think this run of the GFS has stayed remarkably similar to the last run. The ECM may or may not stay the same......but though no model is ever 100% right all the time, I always favour the GFS over others but despite this have been hoping that its runds from a few days ago would materialise again. But now I feel reluctant acceptance of feeling that it will turn out to be pretty accurate which feels like a great big bunch of salt has been poured over my hopes...

[Osbourne One-Nil]

There's little doubt that here at Netweather we have some of the most notable amateur weather fans in the country. I'll let you decide whether there should be a space somewhere in the word "notable".

Same rules apply - stay on topic and please use the other threads where appropriate.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Looks like the GFS has moved an inch to the ECM.

The height rises may not come over Greenland on this run, but it is now toying with the idea of sticking a trough into Scandi.

The UKMO seems to be coming to the ECM also.

ECM to stick with its output tonight is crucial!

Overall I think this run of the GFS has stayed remarkably similar to the last run. The ECM may or may not stay the same......but though no model is ever 100% right all the time, I always favour the GFS over others but despite this have been hoping that its runds from a few days ago would materialise again. But now I feel reluctant acceptance of feeling that it will turn out to be pretty accurate which feels like a great big bunch of salt has been poured over my hopes...

Why should it be anymore accurate.The GFS is the worst performer of the three main models at the moment and it is pretty tight with the GEM for third spot.

[KTtom]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.png

OOOOh, some sleet showers into Scotland by +216!

Come on guys, some misleading posts here, this run is a world away from the ECM!

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'm surprised some people can't see that the 12Z is significantly different to the 6Z - just look at the northern hemisphere profile by +240 hours

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/npsh500.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....252/npsh500.png

Miles apart with the modelling of the vortex.

Edited January 13, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Radiating Dendrite]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

OOOOh, some sleet showers into Scotland by +216!

Come on guys, some misleading posts here, this run is a world away from the ECM!

By 216 we see a trough to our NE and heights starting to push into southern greenland. How is that a "world away" from the ECM. It is moving further away from its previous output that is for sure.In FI it also stops pumping up the vortex...........is it starting to get the picture now with the negative AO?

Edited January 13, 2012 by Radiating Dendrite

[danm]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

OOOOh, some sleet showers into Scotland by +216!

Come on guys, some misleading posts here, this run is a world away from the ECM!

You are failing to spot trends. That chart you posted shows more ridging into Greenland than the 06z did at the same time frame. But the GFS is still quite far off the ECM, but it's taken a step forward.

Edited January 13, 2012 by danm

[ITSY]

UKMO could quite easily go either way at this stage (144):

GFS then for comparison at same (144) time frame:

UKMO looks better equipped to get into Greenland - tonight's ECM will tell us. I'll post the 144 ECM chart when it comes out

[johnholmes]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png

OOOOh, some sleet showers into Scotland by +216!

Come on guys, some misleading posts here, this run is a world away from the ECM!

I think if folk look at the pdf I posted in the last thread, pretty much everyone would have to agree that there continue to be considerable differences at each of the time frames I posted, 120, 168, 240

Comments like this/that is crucial are not really worth much as each model will change as T+00, whatever time scale you have chosen, gets nearer. By T+12 they will probably all show very much the same chart. Mind you as we have seen over the past few weeks even at that short time scale agreement is not always there!

[Southender]

I agree Lomond.

Much better from the GFS this afternoon.

The PV is not as strong or as organised.

Hints of it shifting away from Greenland as well.

Edited January 13, 2012 by Shrimper

[Paceyboy]

I'm surprised some people can't see that the 12Z is significantly different to the 6Z - just look at the northern hemisphere profile by +240 hours

http://cdn.nwstatic....240/npsh500.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....252/npsh500.png

Miles apart with the modelling of the vortex.

Thats right yes. GFS 12z vastly different to its 06z

Although it forms a pretty strong greenland high, it looks to disappear far too quickly to me, but this is the low res part of the run.

I feel some more 'tweaking' and it will begin to mirror the ECM more.

[chionomaniac]

In response to Phils post in previous thread I wrote this before the doors were locked.

If you put the same comparison between the ECM and GFS for Thurs 19 00Z then you will see that there is not a million miles of difference. What happens after this is another matter, but if ever that there was a time not to look too far ahead then this is it.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

By 216 we see a trough to our NE and heights starting to push into southern greenland. How is that a "world away" from the ECM. It is moving further away from its previous output that is for sure.In FI it also stops pumping up the vortex...........is it starting to get the picture now with the negative AO?

I agree it's moved a tiny bit nearer to ECM rather than moved a tiny bit further away. The 12z seems to want to split a little bit of the vortex and we have troughing in scandi, all similar to the ECM in the grand scheme of things, but still a long long way to go to give anything of wintry note.

[ukpaul]

The similarities between the last ECM run and the UKMO are really quite marked, GFS gradually moving but fires up the jet more than the others.

GFS -

ECM -

UKMO -

Edited January 13, 2012 by ukpaul

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've just moved some of the more descriptive posts from the old thread into this one. Hope it helps.

[LomondSnowstorm]

UKMO out http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?13-17

A nice tilt to the jet at 144 hours but heights aren't as strong to the north as on the ECM. Perhaps moving towards a consensus of sorts?

[weathe20]

so so so many conflicting posts!!! Would love S Murr or TEITS to sort this out!! Frustrated newbie.

[Iceberg]

In response to Phils post in previous thread I wrote this before the doors were locked.

If you put the same comparison between the ECM and GFS for Thurs 19 00Z then you will see that there is not a million miles of difference. What happens after this is another matter, but if ever that there was a time not to look too far ahead then this is it.

Totally agree Chiono, there has not been any more or less disagreement in the models than it normal, it purely that people are looking in detail at tiny meso features at T5000 (slight exaggeration, but you get the drift).

I don't understand why people don't sit back a bit and look at the upper more permanent features outside the short time frame.

[cooling climate]

Judging by the ouput so far this evening it is looking like a half way house sort of solution

is going to be reached and would therefore expect some sorth of climb down from the ECM

later with regard to height rises to our NW. This does not unfortunately translate to any

real meaningful cold spell for the UK within the medium range if correct.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The ensembles at 144 hours have a similar slight upgrade to the op. http://176.31.229.22...21-1-144.png?12

6Z mean - http://176.31.229.22...-21-1-150.png?6

I'm not going to overstate this because it isn't huge but there are more positives there than there were on earlier runs.

edit: I can't seem to fix the link unfortunately.

Edited January 13, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[danm]

The ensembles at 144 hours have a similar slight upgrade to the op. http://176.31.229.22...21-1-144.png?12

6Z mean - http://176.31.229.22...-21-1-150.png?6

I'm not going to overstate this because it isn't huge but there are more positives there than there were on earlier runs.

The 6z mean you've posted is actually the 12z mean for 19th jan, 7pm.

[PolarWarsaw]

I'd imagine some sort of backtrack to a 'half way' house suggestion tonight. Is it me or does it just seem like we cannot lock a cold pattern in for long enough to have any kind of certainty. Despite a slightly more positive look to the GFS12z it still provides the country only cold zonality and thats in the medium term. I do hope im wrong as id love to see a widespread chaos bringing cold spell, sadly I just can't see it at the moment.

Here's hoping im wrong.