Model Discussion Thread - January 13th

[ChartViewer]

It has been moving forward though. It shouldn't be at 120 hours, it's only been 12 hours since the last run!

Thats the point it isnt progressing its not moving.....Anyone can see a flatter ridge out to T168 and thats a day after the T144 showed improvement!!!....Posting T192 charts now is saying oh well forget the last day or so of the ECM ....jeez

Edited January 13, 2012 by ChartViewer

[cooling climate]

Well it looks as though the ECM is trying to squeeze out as much cold for the UK and Europe

as it can from this pattern. You would think that with such a large high to the east it would be

having more of a role than it is.

The negatives from this run is that the pattern is flatter with less ridging in the earlier timeframe

and if this continues then there will be no higher pressure to the north like the ECM is

showing in its extended output.

[danm]

FI, but a fantastic chart to round of the ECM:

Low to the SW, cold easterly airflow, very cold 850's. ECM is a cold run throughout and it is sticking to it's guns overall. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty between the Big 3 models, so we are yet to see whether this will verify.

[Tim Bland]

Either GFS or ECM is going to have egg on its face soon. I for one will not forget which one wins!

Edited January 13, 2012 by Tim Bland

[J10]

Lets have a look at the actual ECM over the past couple of days. to get the reality of the situation.

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.168.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.216.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.240.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.168.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.216.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.240.png

Using this we can directly compare charts to really see what the day to day progression is, using this we can see that each time frame is looking better and better for bringing the cold in Next Friday.

Doesn't mean it will happen of course, but ECM holding firm in its prediction.

[ChartViewer]

Well it looks as though the ECM is trying to squeeze out as much cold for the UK and Europe

as it can from this pattern. You would think that with such a large high to the east it would be

having more of a role than it is.

The negatives from this run is that the pattern is flatter with less ridging in the earlier timeframe

and if this continues then there will be no higher pressure to the north like the ECM is

showing in its extended output.

Thankyou

[ukpaul]

Okay, let's put this canard to bed.

First signs of current ECM solution - 11th Jan 12z (for direct comparison), for Fri 20th Jan 1pm

Two days and four runs later -

Edited January 13, 2012 by ukpaul

[Paul Sherman]

This really is pathetic - Arguing over Timescales for the last 3-4 pages!!!!!!!!!

There are a select few who are ruining this thread for the majority of people (New and Older members) and should be ashamed of themselves.

I would pretty much delete the last 3 pages if i was in the mods shoes

[winter watcher]

Have to agree things do not look so promising now. The ECM 12z run probably showing a

48 hour cold snap at best. --- Cooling Climate

As i stated by 128 + i could see that this was going to be a belter. I am picking out this comment because to me CC you have not looked at the charts before you posted know wonder newbies are so confused and there is bickering going on in here most winters.

[Shunter]

One things for sure, either the ECM or the Gfs are going to lose a great deal of credibility on this forum in the next few days. Never seen a 'standoff' this long on this forum b4

[Brum Watcher]

My, with all the pressure from other models ECM said bring it on! what a stonker from 168 till then end.....and beyond potentially aswell. So after seeing this id expect GFS make some in roads on the 18z....pub run that can create a fiasco this evening....fingers crossed....

[TEITS]

Quick summary from me.

The good news is its looking very likely to turn colder from around the 19th Jan. Below is the ECM at +168 and the GEFS mean.

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-21-1-168.png?12

So although there are obviously differences you can see a colder NW,ly flow. This is supported by the Aberdeen ensembles I posted earlier. However because of the differences between the GFS/ECM what happens beyond the NW,ly is very uncertain. At this stage I don't know if a shortlived cold spell is likely or a more prolonged spell is likely. Until we see the models agree at +144 its pointless going beyond. I will add though that the ECM ejecting energy SE is a quicker route to a cold spell than the GFS.

[Paul White.]

Okay, let's put this canard to bed.

First signs of current ECM solution - 11th Jan 12z (for direct comparison), for Fri 20th Jan 1pm

Two days and four runs later -

This is a fantastic post clearly shows that the pattern has improved and shifted it all West and more of the Uk in the cold. of course it may nor verify but it does show at the very least that the ecm is showing run to run consistency. Four runs in a row I think that is outstanding.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM has held its position and has put nothing back, indeed compared to 00z its solidified its position and it is bringing the whole pattern forward. For me there are kinks showing in the 12z GFS 96 - 144 showing a move slightly towards the ECM. We shall see but that is what I see folks......for me we move forward

BFTP

[Cheshire Freeze]

What I find interesting is that not 1 GEFS ensemble member shows the same evolution at the same time frame that the ECM does and has for a couple of days now. IF the GFS turns out to be wrong, not only will the operational output be completely wrong, but the ensemble data too.

[Duane S.]

Well upon reflection of the full 10 days from the ECM I think I was wrong. Not with my comment regards the ECM sticking to its guns but my comment saying it's not quite as good as the 00z. IMO it's better.

And some members can argue till they're blue in the face, this IS coming forward and to boot the ECM has NOT wavered (other than the sort of differences you may expect from an OP, with the right signal, winding down to T00) for about 6? runs now.

19th of Jan has constantly and consistently been the point when the cold arrives and that has been the date for quite a few days, even the GFS backs that up with it's wrong/different evolution! So to my mind we are nearly there, details to be finalised.

[mcweather]

A good ecm tonight. Which in reality is eesentially very similar at 240 to the wednesday night 240 that kicked of all the excitement in the first place with the pressure rising albeit slowly around the top of the original now filling low.

[TEITS]

More good news the JMA backs the ECM.

See how at +144 we see the trough going SE underneath the block.

[Geordiesnow]

Thats the point it isnt progressing its not moving.....Anyone can see a flatter ridge out to T168 and thats a day after the T144 showed improvement!!!....Posting T192 charts now is saying oh well forget the last day or so of the ECM ....jeez

The ridge might be "skinnier" but the emphasis on this ECM run is the same as the others really, it does a successful ridge into Greenland and allows the lows to head SE'wards which allows the easterly in. The detail is always going to change but at this moment in time the ECM HAS been consistant and lets be honest, you were expecting like many were(including myself) to backtrack towards the GFS/UKMO alot more than it did.

Of course, I think many will agree that the ridge must successfully occur before we can say that we might be heading into a lengthier cold snap with the risk of snowfall for some so theres still time for things to go wrong or for the GFS/UKMO to come on board.

[Stuie]

Just flicked through many models on meteociel and they all seem to be much of a muchness around Jan 20, cold. This is T168. I suppose 168 is well into FI at the moment but with a lot of the models foreseeing cold is there some credibility there?

[Bobby]

Looks like the GEM and NOGAPS are going down the ECM path too

12z GEM +144

12z NOGAPS +180

[Cheshire Freeze]

JMA about to 'outperform' the GFS.....Surely not!

I think it's seeking promotion

At 144 we have the ECM, UKMO and JMA handing the exit of the low from Canada in pretty much an identical way

[Duane S.]

What I find interesting is that not 1 GEFS ensemble member shows the same evolution at the same time frame that the ECM does and has for a couple of days now. IF the GFS turns out to be wrong, not only will the operational output be completely wrong, but the ensemble data too.

When it moves over (which yes is a bit presumptious, it may not of course, but I'm fairly sure it will more than the ECM will backtrack) the ens will move pretty much lock stock with it I suspect. In which case I'd like to think that if that does happen something could be learnt from this with regards how the GFS has handled this and then factored in. Obviously it's not as simple as the NOAA adding a couple of lines of code (or is it?) BUT it has been so barking up the wrong (ok different) tree for such a long period of times surely somerthing could be improved on!

Edited January 13, 2012 by s4lancia

[ChartViewer]

The GFS is clearly at great risk of becoming "the Gimp" of models if it is steamrollered by ECM. Jaw dropping diffreences at 216 :o

Or the ECM model will tmw become a joker who loses its status as a model of choice in this window of Winter...I really do expect the GFS 18z to stick to its guns barrell the PV...Flatten the ridge and come out tops...The ECM 00 will carry on with a flatter ridge and we will see tmw.

Apologies Paul re the timescale bickering.

Regards

Regards

[Cheshire Freeze]

When it moves over (which yes is a bit presumptious, it may not of course, but I'm fairly sure it will more than the ECM will backtrack) the ens will move pretty much lock stock with it I suspect. In which case I'd like to think that if that does happen something could be learnt from this with regards how the GFS has handled this and then factored in. Obviously it's not as simple as the NOAA adding a couple of lines of code (or is it?) BUT it has been so barking up the wrong (ok different) tree for such a long period of times surely somerthing could be improved on!

Well I suspect it may be zonal biased which in delicate situations like this may not be a good thing, though it's great when you have the usual W-E movement of synoptics.

Who knows, it could still be correct.