Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

[Gerry]

nick have you got the link to the ECM charts that got posted over here last year- it has the UK with the contours & 850 overlays- I loved them chatrs

S

Steve

these?

these?

[JP1972]

Sorry to be a pain, but can someone give an update as to where we are now please?!

Bloody exhasting is this, as well as fascinating!

I've sided with the ECM but can someone more knowledgable put some meat on the bones and sock it to me/us proper??!!

[Cloud 10]

Sorry to be a pain, but can someone give an update as to where we are now please?!

Bloody exhasting is this, as well as fascinating!

I've sided with the ECM but can someone more knowledgable put some meat on the bones and sock it to me/us proper??!!

http://forum.netweat...ost__p__2212923

[nick sussex]

yes hero

can I have the link

steve

In case Gerrys logged off here you go found it at last!

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/ecmwf/archiv/Europe/thgt850/2012011412/nothumb/ch/21f6d20839821a90424fa721524f5b28.html

[Gerry]

yes hero

can I have the link

steve

No problem good to see you being subjective amongst all the flan flinging personally cant be bothered posting any more, one hell of an omega block to end the 18z just about sums up the gfs output at the moment, anyway heres the link www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-ncep.html

regards

Gerry

[kold weather]

GFS has taken one move towards the ECM but still remains steadfast in another way. The model weight still lays with the ECM solution though its well worth noting that those models keep on downgrading the cold spell into a cold snap. Still the GFS has done itself no favours by sticking to a constantly zonal solution, so even if its closer to the actual truth then the orginal hell-raiser ECM solution, its going to get no credit at all.

[Gerry]

In case Gerrys logged off here you go found it at last!

http://www.weatherca...21524f5b28.html

Nick

mighty fast fingers... doesn't help that I am watching match of the day as well as working and keeping an eye on the n. hemisphere who said men couldn't multi task

[Michael Winston]

ECM mean.

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?14-0

Im becoming increasingly confident of the outlook now. Simple summary is turning colder next weekend with snowfall possible in some areas. Thereafter remaining cold especially towards the SE but Ireland/NW may turn slightly less cold. Going even further the combination of blocking remainiing to the NE, trough into Europe, PV to the W of Greenland means further undercutting is possible which may lead towards an E,ly developing.

Thanks, Dave.

In a rare post here I'd like to agree with your astute observations which confirm the trends my untrained mind had identified.

Regards,

Mike.

P.S. Very belated Happy New year greetings.

[Tim Bland]

Meto Fax for t120

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVO89.png

Regards,

Tom

Great fax for t+120. Cold front pushing south with snow showers following, heights present over Greenland.

[TEITS]

Despite the GFS disagreeing with the rest of the models early on I am spotting somewhat of a simliar trend in the GEFS ensembles for the rest of Jan.

Seems to me that beyond +168 the GEFS ensembles suggest LP systems taking a more S,ly track, tracking SE with low pressure developing across S Europe. As a consequence of this im seeing pressure rising to the N. The GEFS control has been consistent with this.

So even if the GFS is correct I can see a similiar trend but its just slower getting there with the GFS/GEFS. I feel the rest of Jan is going to be fasinating following the models.

[NickR]

No problem good to see you being subjective amongst all the flan flinging personally cant be bothered posting any more, one hell of an omega block to end the 18z just about sums up the gfs output at the moment, anyway heres the link www.weathercast.co.uk/latest-model-forecasts/gfs-ncep.html

regards

Gerry

Erm... don't you mean objective (i.e., not prejudiced by personal stances and viewpoints)?

Op was a big mild outlier in the low res section:

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=310&ext=1&y=75&run=18&runpara=0

[damianslaw]

Last post from me tonight on the models - and its not about the GFS a model at the moment I think is performing particularly badly, no it is the UKMO Fax Chart for 120 hours. What it is showing is behind the trough is some very cold upper air, the 528 dam line will quickly sweep through Scotland - so the milder interlude on tuesday/wednesday would be a very shortlived affair. Any precipitation behind the front would very readily be of the snow variety down to very low levels, so it certainly supports the met office update for snow in the north by the end of next week. Before we start talking about an easterly set up or extensive northerly blocking, within the reliable timeframe we have a potentially snowy polar blast on our doorsteps well for the north at least. I do believe ECM and UKMO are modelling the position of the trough and mid atlantic ridge correctly. The projected polar blast would be a much more potent beast than the polar blasts of december.

[PolarWarsaw]

So whose up for the 0z's tonight. Seriously though, to me personally we're no closer to the resolution. It seems the battle has been on-going for days now with no real, real indication. However I do feel tonights runs fall slightly in line with the ECM, abeit a slightly watered down version than the ECM that was showing a 4 or 5 runs ago.

[Matty M]

So whose up for the 0z's tonight. Seriously though, to me personally we're no closer to the resolution. It seems the battle has been on-going for days now with no real, real indication. However I do feel tonights runs fall slightly in line with the ECM, abeit a slightly watered down version than the ECM that was showing a 4 or 5 runs ago.

Well from where i am sitting, the ECM has progressively moved towards a less favourable solution for cold weather in the last 24 hours

[TEITS]

This is the kind of chart I wouldn't be surprised to see appearing on the ECM at +240 over the next few days.

[mountain shadow]

Well from where i am sitting, the ECM has progressively moved towards a less favourable solution for cold weather in the last 24 hours

Perhaps for a prolonged cold spell, but it only showed that in one run I think. It has had the cold snap modelled for about 5 days now unlike the GFS.

[kold weather]

Well from where i am sitting, the ECM has progressively moved towards a less favourable solution for cold weather in the last 24 hours

I agree, but the GFS has really shifted as well, its been back and forth with how it handles the Arctic, its been frankly a total mess in that department. Its now moving back towards the orginal ECM idea but the Atlantic remains too progressive. If we remember that the GFS has a habit of being overly progressive, it makes things interesting again.

[Gerry]

Erm... don't you mean objective (i.e., not prejudiced by personal stances and viewpoints)?

Op was a big mild outlier in the low res section:

Ooops yes objective not subjective am sure Steve knew what I meant, still back to the models....

[ukpaul]

Well from where i am sitting, the ECM has progressively moved towards a less favourable solution for cold weather in the last 24 hours

Yes, not so good for Ireland with the first incursion further east and any other activity after that coming from that direction. Still, if it did happen it could get to Dublin eventually....

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Damainslaw, thanks for that encouraging post do you think it will be more severe than the NW a week or so before christmas?

[Cloud 10]

Here are the Aberdeen ensembles for the 18z,never seen such a sharp difference between the operational run

and the ensembles at such a short timeframe.

Normally the op.runs lead the way?

[andy_leics22]

The ECM is a bit meh if it's a long term cold snap you are looking for to be honest. Obviously anything at T240 can and will change a lot before that day arrives but I don't like the way the height rises around Greenland/Iceland seem to topple very quickly on all the charts <_<

ECM at T144...

ECM at T216...

Far too many low pressures around Greenland for my liking.

[Tom Quintavalle]

This is the kind of chart I wouldn't be surprised to see appearing on the ECM at +240 over the next few days.

http://modeles.meteo...-2-1-312.png?18

Hi Dave,

Noticed your comment re. ensemble members showing lows diving SE over and even west of the UK, which on some show height rises to the NE and potential for an undercutting low down the line, which is shown on a few.

I was concerned to see some ensemble members 850 temps rising a little in graph form but of course if a low was diving SE close to the west of UK it would tend to drag up milder air from the south initially. Sometimes the graphs dont tell the whole story.

I also noticed on a lot of the members that the PV finally loses its grip over Greenland and becomes distorted over the NH, also giving rise to some promising looking scenarios on page 2, post t192.

Regards,

Tom.

[andy_leics22]

Here are the Aberdeen ensembles for the 18z,never seen such a sharp difference between the operational run

and the ensembles at such a short timeframe.

Normally the op.runs lead the way?

The operational tonight must be one for the bin, that is a huge outlier at such a short timeframe, never seen it that far off the rest of the Ensembles before.

[kumquat]

Mass divergence at T+120 on the 18z GEFS ens. Most ensembles into FI give 850's of 0 / -5. Operational shows a mild run from 24th - 28th Jan. Control run shows a much colder scenario.