Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

[Cheese Rice]

Yes the GFS is performing very poor of late, while it appears consistent you only have to look at its own ensembles to see the operational is a massive outlier. That doesn't even include the divergence compared to the UKMO and ECM

Looking at the 850 profiles over Oslo shows deep cold is likely to stay over in the long and short term.

[Zakos]

Originally, the ensembles were mainly going along with the op, albeit slitghty colder. Now, the gfs op has lost support from its own ensemles aswell. Gfs has fallen flat on its face, and unless by some kind of miracle it verifies, it has seriously gone down in my expectations as a model.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not quite "game, set and match" to the ECMWF evolution yet but a slightly toned down version of its earlier projections is looking increasingly likely. The UKMO chart at T+144 looks like it would evolve very similarly to the ECMWF charts.

Regarding the ECMWF's consistency rate, I think a few of its operational runs have hinted at a possible longer cold spell with an initial polar maritime outbreak and then a north-easterly regime on the northern flank of the North Sea "slider", but the ensembles only showed broad support for this on one run- otherwise the ensembles have suggested more or less what we're seeing on UKMO/ECM now. I quite often think of the ECMWF ensemble mean as giving a better guidance than the operational run, although there are exceptions, e.g. when there is a strong ensemble split between two or more outcomes that produce a misleading ensemble mean.

The prognosis there is for a 3-4 day cold snap, some wintry showers in the north and west from the initial polar maritime outbreak, then a wintry mix of precipitation occurring widely as the low tracks down the North Sea, introducing pools of slightly milder air. After that, there is the possibility of a brief NE'ly with wintry showers for eastern areas, and also a "snow to rain" event as Atlantic systems push in afterwards- but it must be stressed that any snowfalls will be marginal. This sort scenario also has significant support from the GEFS ensembles.

Interestingly there is no agreement on a significant warm-up afterwards, so cool zonal is looking a fairly good bet as we head into the last third of January.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers

[PolarWarsaw]

Anyone following the 0z?

[Snowy Easterly]

Anyone following the 0z?

yes up to T102 and it looks the same to me

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Looking like another dreadful GFS operational run and i stayed up to watch it unfold,i should have known better.

Im going to wait for ukmo 0z now i really hope it looks nothing like GFS 0Z which maintains its zonal flat pattern with the Azores high stuck like a limpet to our SW in the reliable timeframe.

[PolarWarsaw]

Looking like sticking to its guns so far.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= t144.

[PolarWarsaw]

Looks like another very poor run cold-wise, GFS sticking it seems.

Edit - to my untrained eye, this looks worse than the 18z..

Edited January 15, 2012 by Radders

[Snowy Easterly]

UKMO is a standard toppler

Meh

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO is a standard toppler

Meh

Looks better than GFS but i agree its not got much 'legs' in that 144h chart IMO and i would suspect the Azores high is going to be getting squashed shortly after.I havent seen it on WZ and im not used to Meteociel but i agree.

[PolarWarsaw]

I think 'meh' is the perfect phrase. Was going to stay up for the ECM but im not sure I want to now. Hope im wrong, but I think a 2-3 days marginal wintry spell with snow to favourable places with reasonable ASL is the best we can hope for. Lets hope not ay!

[danm]

The UKMO looks quite good in my opinion. Sticking with its general support for the ECM.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

The UKMO looks quite good in my opinion. Sticking with its general support for the ECM.

Well at the end of the day its all about opinions but Im still not overly keen on that ukmo 144h chart its screaming toppler to me

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rukm1441.html

Although its a darn site better than this from GFS at the same timeframe.

ECM coming out now to deliver its verdict!!

EDIT Its bed time im not liking 0z ECM it looks flatter than previous runs already.

Edited January 15, 2012 by happy days

[snow drift]

Well at the end of the day its all about opinions but Im still not overly keen on that ukmo 144h chart its screaming toppler to me

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rukm1441.html

Although its a darn site better than this from GFS at the same timeframe.

ECM coming out now to deliver its verdict!!

Lost link to watch it come out, have you got it?

[IDO]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Lost link to watch it come out, have you got it?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=120&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[IDO]

***Downgrade alert***Downgrade alert***

Oh Dear ECM.

They are moving closer and closer to GFS as their runs near the critical time. The 0z at T144 is worse than UKMO (and that may be a topler). Unless they have a rabbit under their hat (after T168) all models are now aligning to GFS.

Edited January 15, 2012 by i'm dreaming of...

[SLEETY]

oh dear looks like the credibilty of the ecm is about to drop off a cliff.What a turnaround!.

Hats off to the gfs.Would you believe it :lol:

[snow drift]

Short term flatter. Fi interesting, PV has moved west and looks to come under some significant pressure. May well be wrong but thats how it looks to me. 3rd time lucky?

Edited January 15, 2012 by snow drift

[West is Best]

ECM now tows the line with the all-conquering GFS. Flat and zonal and normal service is resumed.

Only the UKMO offers any cold and that is, as mentioned above, a northerly toppler of the type which usually downgrades.

Never did see much hope in this cold spell. Insufficient upstream blocking. Game over for now.

[Great Plum]

If anything, the GFS has 'moved' to the ECM solution...

Look at:

GFS: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

ECM:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

I think that for the first time, the GFS is showing a split vortex which is what the ECM has shown for some time...

Huge divergence in the GFS ensembles after the 19th...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[Weather-history]

ECM now tows the line with the all-conquering GFS.

There are no all conquering models, all models have their successes and failures. It turns out GFS maybe closer to the mark to this time, ECM was correct just before Christmas to quickly discount the prospect of an exceptional low. There is no invincible model.

[Slippery When White]

Here are the Aberdeen ensembles for the 18z,never seen such a sharp difference between the operational run

and the ensembles at such a short timeframe.

Normally the op.runs lead the way?

Apologies if this is the wrong place to ask but what is the difference between the control and operational runs on the ensembles? I assume the mean is simply the average of all the runs.

Thanks

Hoops :-)

[Brum Watcher]

GFS wins shoots first. ECM massive ridge collapses. clap clap GFS.

[SMU]

Morning All- the correct solution looks like a 'brief' spilt in the vortex @ 120-

The GFS all along had nothing, the ECM looks now to have been over amplified & to slow-

therefor they are meeting in the middle.

The net fall out is any wedge of high pressure that gets into scandi isnt a Strong enough signal to become sustainable- However we cannot dismiss it out oz 1 set of 00z runs-

In summary ALMOST cross model agreement- the UKMO is the best at 144, the ECM not so great & the GFS again the worst- Again 'timing' of how a system develops & the net effects it has down the line can be seen in varying outcomes- with massive swings on an output all hinging on a tiny bit more amplification of the flow..... madness! S

Edited January 15, 2012 by Steve Murr

[Snowmadsam]

It all may NOT be game set and match to GFS we have still got the ensembles to come out. Theres still hope!

Shame about ecm though