Model Thread - 14th Jan - Mk2

[West is Best]

There are no all conquering models, all models have their successes and failures. It turns out GFS maybe closer to the mark to this time, ECM was correct just before Christmas to quickly discount the prospect of an exceptional low. There is no invincible model.

Nah.

GFS is, and has been, the market leader for years. ECM has too many of these volte-faces so I tend to rank it 3rd behind UKMO. GFS is always the benchmark and the one I study first and in greatest depth.

Even then, it pays to be reminded that no model past T144 is worth paying a huge amount of attention to.

[West is Best]

ECM not so great & the GFS again the worst-

Presumably you mean for people who like cold Steve?

[SLEETY]

Yeah.The lesson to be learned is ignore all output after t+144.Even that is pushing it

If all models ran to only t+144 we wouldn't have all these problems in the winter months.

As it now stands in real time all 3 models look promising for cold at t+120 as i'm sure the countryfile forecaster will mention today.

[SMU]

[

yes for coldies- although saying every model is like the GFS & its 'won' isnt really realistic when you look at the 144 charts

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif ECM 144Z

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rukm1441.gif UKMO 144Z

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rngp1441.gif NOGAPS 144Z

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rgem1441.gif GME 144Z

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png GFS

Its still very fast with easterly progression---- just like yesterday I wouldnt be saying any model is X Y Z until we actually get down to the nitty gritty at 72 & 96

S

Edited January 15, 2012 by phil n.warks.
removed copy of deleted post

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Yeah.The lesson to be learned is ignore all output after t+144.Even that is pushing it

If all models ran to only t+144 we wouldn't have all these problems in the winter months.

As it now stands in real time all 3 models look promising for cold at t+120 as i'm sure the countryfile forecaster will mention today.

Promising for cold where though.ECM/GFS dont and UKMO is only offering a toppler.

[IDO]

If anything, the GFS has 'moved' to the ECM solution...

Look at:

GFS: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

ECM:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

I think that for the first time, the GFS is showing a split vortex which is what the ECM has shown for some time...

Huge divergence in the GFS ensembles after the 19th...

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

I am not saying GFS is or will be the right solution. As the ensembles suggest there is still a possibility of various outcomes after the 18th. However models may lack clarity in the minute but they are useful for trends. ECM have binned any prolonged cold and are moving towards GFS's poor outlook (for cold). Every run is going towards GFS, there is no up and down, it is a relentless downgrade. GFS will give us various solutions after the 19th as it is in FI and some will be worse than others (0z is one of the worst).

What we now know is that the much talked about pattern change suggested by many members did happen as they predicted (mid Jan) but the synoptics would not give us real cold. We do now have a better (colder) background which must help for future shots & late in FI the Azores High is also less dominant. Strat changes may be the crucial variable and I will let the experts on this site appraise these. However it appears from what I have read there has been a significant downgrade on the warming, and if it does happen, it will probably be too late to help Feb for cold.

So maybe this year the best we will get is PM excursions or frost and by the end of next weekend we should have had both of them. This is certainly nothing to excite the hardcore, but is better than what has gone before.

[SLEETY]

You would be better posting the t+120 charts tbh Steve too much changes in output 6 days away .Even t+120 seems to be pushing it at the moment.

[nick sussex]

I think an objective view on the ECM/GFS debate is that they both got somethings right and wrong..

Strangely just as the ECM flattens the ridge, the GEFS ensembles have improved in the shorter term.

The UKMO at 144hrs is not a toppler and thats still the best output today as the trough will be locked in over Europe by the block to the east, for fear of causing too much laughter the NOGAPS is also good, the GFS still however remains out of agreement with the rest of the models within 168hrs.

The NOAA diagnostic discussions still prefer the ECM/UKMO and GEM to the GFS for the handling of that low out of the ne USA as the latter is in their opinion too flat.

If you put aside some of the disagreements it looks like low pressure will develop to the west of Iceland and the debate is whether this cuts se or east, I don't think we've seen the last of the changes so before people annoint the GFS as King of the models best wait till this evening.

Edited January 15, 2012 by nick sussex

[SLEETY]

Promising for cold where though.ECM/GFS dont and UKMO is only offering a toppler.

Yes but that's six days away which is too far out.All models look similar so why do you say the ecm/gfs aren't promising?

[Tom Quintavalle]

I think an objective view on the ECM/GFS debate is that they both got somethings right and wrong..

Strangely just as the ECM flattens the ridge, the GEFS ensembles have improved in the shorter term.

The UKMO at 144hrs is not a toppler and thats still the best output today as the trough will be locked in over Europe by the block to the east, for fear of causing too much laughter the NOGAPS is also good, the GFS still however remains out of agreement with the rest of the models within 168hrs.

The NOAA diagnostic discussions still prefer the ECM/UKMO and GEM to the GFS for the handling of that low out of the ne USA as the latter is in their opinion too flat.

If you put aside some of the disagreements it looks like low pressure will develop to the west of Iceland and the debate is whether this cuts se or east, I don't think we've seen the last of the changes so before people annoint the GFS as King of the models best wait till this evening.

Tend to agree with the above and still enough indecision on when and how that low exits Labrador/Newfoundland to suggest this isnt done and dusted by any means. Those charts that Steve posted earlier indicate a middle of the road situation and dont think you can elaborate on which way this scenario will unfold just yet, because of the earlier differences. FI still pretty close to home, certainly makes for fascinating model watching!

Regards,

Tom

[bluearmy]

There are still some twists and turns in this people. The ECM simply picks out a very reasonable option from it's ens clusters of yesterday.

The gefs and more notably the gefs parallel have sniffed something called HLB and methinks by we time we get to the end of this week we won't be thinking too much about the past few days.

In the period 22 to 26 jan, between 5 and 7 of the parallel gefs members are showing snowfall in London. The ens mean well into fii shows a general rising of heights across the n Atlantic. Maybe half of the runs having heigh heights in the iceland/Greenland area.

the behaviour of this trough at T144 is still not resolved and what follows remains uncertain but strangely, looking up for coldies.

Edited January 15, 2012 by bluearmy

[phil nw.]

Please try to avoid brief mood type posts,they should go into that thread.

Let`s keep to proper discussions and start the day we mean to go on.

Thanks people.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op run has ditched the cold snap completely and it becomes milder through next week as the high slowly sinks southeast or south, it would be a fairly dry, rather cloudy and breezy increasingly mild week after a chilly start. The Ecm 00z is downgrading the cold snap as fast as it can but still lagging behind the gfs by a distance, so, what was potentially going to be a pattern changing cold spell is fast becoming a damp squib.

[Liam J]

ECM op run is further backing down from the cold evolution and definitely falling much more in line with the GFS model output this morning with a much flatter zonal pattern evolving. The UKMO 00z looks better with more emphasis on the high over the Atlantic and a trough situated over Europe leaving the UK with N/NE winds. Still many twists and turns before we'll know for sure how this will play out, interesting model watching.

[Iceberg]

Looking a little longer range at the general patterns and GFS once again gives a steady breakdown of the cold Pools at the 30hpa layer down from -70 to around -50, it then introduces a more stable temperature varience across the whole N.Hemisphere, Unlike the rapid warming that occurs this is not likely to lead to massive HP cells, but will give a more stable gentle, less western driven set up as you see a slow in Jet streams etc.

The general pattern would then tend be pretty much as suggested by the GFS post T144, generally cold, lots of cols weak ridges,with the potential for HP to move from the east as we enter Feb. No deep cold but a good chance of some cold and higher chances of snow.

Later in the run and GFS 30hpa places any concentrated weak PV over central canada, this again hints for the kind of set up described above.

Re the model debate the solutions the models are showing now for T120-168 a pretty much in line with the GFS ENS mean and ECM avg, which IMHO have both performed very well

[Tom Quintavalle]

There are still some twists and turns in this people. The ECM simply picks out a very reasonable option from it's ens clusters of yesterday.

The gefs and more notably the gefs parallel have sniffed something called HLB and methinks by we time we get to the end of this week we won't be thinking too much about the past few days.

In the period 22 to 26 jan, between 5 and 7 of the parallel gefs members are showing snowfall in London. The ens mean well into fii shows a general rising of heights across the n Atlantic. Maybe half of the runs having heigh heights in the iceland/Greenland area.

the behaviour of this trough at T144 is still not resolved and what follows remains uncertain but strangely, looking up for coldies.

Off to work in a mo but will just post this link, that bluearmy refers to. Only had time to look at the first couple of members and the mean. Certainly some interest there.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=1&runpara=1

Regards,

Tom

[Duane S.]

No real resolution. ECM continues its de-amplification of events with a very flat looking jet compared to recent runs, Interesting to see where it sits later on this morning. GFS, far from being *ahem* 'all-conquering', still continues to show its own version of events but IMO they are now as close to each on this 00z run other as they have been since this debacle started a few days to go.

UKMO again offers up by far the best +144. Don't see that as a toppler, more of a decent building block.

The only thing here that could be described as 'all-conquering' right now is that vortex, but it is being weakened. Meanwhile lurking over to our East is a monster high, waiting in the wings, patiently, for a chance to edge west and this may come later on with signs of amplification and jet buckling upstream.

Don't think we've seen the end of this yet though, the 5 day point being interesting, could be a dramatic change here yet.

Edited January 15, 2012 by s4lancia

[weathe20]

oh dear looks like the credibilty of the ecm is about to drop off a cliff.What a turnaround!.

Hats off to the gfs.Would you believe it :lol:

If anything, the GFS has 'moved' to the ECM solution...

Look at:

GFS: http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png

ECM:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif

I think that for the first time, the GFS is showing a split vortex which is what the ECM has shown for some time...

Huge divergence in the GFS ensembles after the 19th...

http://www.netweathe...;type=ens;sess=

GFS to me still looks like sticking to its guns and not budging. As for the posts above does anyone else know what they are talking about appart from S.Murr?

[Frosty.]

I have noticed in recent days that the Gfs was delaying and delaying the onset of a colder polar maritime flow into next weekend whereas the ecm still shows the change of airmass next thursday but this morning the gfs decided not to bother with it, an increasingly unsettled run with the usual mix of mild and average zonal, with troughing digging south to the west of ireland so we get strong swly winds and a stormy looking fi at times, we eventually get a northerly near T+384 hours (thanks gfs). The Ecm has really choked badly since it's dream wintry charts on thurs/fri and has been watering the cold potential down with every run since then, so, what are we left with, a cold start with frost, then milder and breezier, windier with some rain into the northwest, then turning rather colder from thursday with showers becoming wintry in the north and a showery weekend before the pattern flattens out based on the ecm 00z.

Edited January 15, 2012 by Frosty039

[snow drift]

No real resolution. ECM continues its de-amplification of events with a very flat looking jet compared to recent runs, Interesting to see where it sits later on this morning. GFS, far from being *ahem* 'all-conquering', still continues to show its own version of events but IMO they are now as close to each on this 00z run other as they have been since this debacle started a few days to go.

UKMO again offers up by far the best +144. Don't see that as a toppler, more of a decent building block.

The only thing here that could be described as 'all-conquering' right now is that vortex, but it is being weakened. Meanwhile lurking over to our East is a monster high, waiting in the wings, patiently, for a chance to edge west and this may come later on with signs of amplification and jet buckling upstream.

Don't think we've seen the end of this yet though, the 5 day point being interesting, could be a dramatic change here yet.

Just goes to show how views can differ. Running through the model output, I was thinking that any cold would come from our NW. Not saying your wrong but I am looking at them differently.

The last day of watching has taught me alot. The heated discussion with background to jusify has been an education. Toppler or not for e.g

One thought I had yesterday evening and made me chuckle. Is IB and SM the same person???!!!!

[The PIT]

ECM swinging more and more towards the GFS thinking and it's looking like a brief milder spell next week be fore a more westerly north westerly flows will dominate. So temps average to slightly below some snow possible on higher ground. Ties in well what the Met office were saying yesterday on the 30 dayer.

Deep FI watchers will now shift to the GFS and Scandi block showing at the end of the run.

Edited January 15, 2012 by The PIT

[weathe20]

ECM swinging more and more towards the GFS thinking and it's looking like a brief milder spell next week be fore a more westerly north westerly flows will dominate. So temps average to slightly below some snow possible on higher ground. Ties in well what the Met office were saying yesterday on the 30 dayer.

Deep FI watchers will now shift to the GFS and Scandi block showing at the end of the run.

Show me a chart to show this please

[bluearmy]

Looking a little longer range at the general patterns and GFS once again gives a steady breakdown of the cold Pools at the 30hpa layer down from -70 to around -50, it then introduces a more stable temperature varience across the whole N.Hemisphere, Unlike the rapid warming that occurs this is not likely to lead to massive HP cells, but will give a more stable gentle, less western driven set up as you see a slow in Jet streams etc.

The general pattern would then tend be pretty much as suggested by the GFS post T144, generally cold, lots of cols weak ridges,with the potential for HP to move from the east as we enter Feb. No deep cold but a good chance of some cold and higher chances of snow.

Later in the run and GFS 30hpa places any concentrated weak PV over central canada, this again hints for the kind of set up described above.

Re the model debate the solutions the models are showing now for T120-168 a pretty much in line with the GFS ENS mean and ECM avg, which IMHO have both performed very well

thats interesting ice as the parallel ens suite seems intent on breaking up the canadian trop vortex in fi which is probably why its such a good run for us.

wouldnt mind ed's take on this as it looks like a big switch in the modelling. is ncep forecasting an SSW in about 10 days because those NH ens charts show something is going on.

[chionomaniac]

If one can think back to earlier this month, it was suggested that the change in stratospheric conditions would drip feed into the tropospheric output with the chance of high latitude blocking becoming more prevalent throughout January and into February. Well, this is certainly happened and when we look at the ECM T+120 NH chart it is obvious that the blocking is affecting the northern hemisphere pattern.

It is not in a favourable position to affect the UK presently, but with the chance of further drip feeding from the stratosphere there still remains the opportunity for further high latitude blocking to wax and wane. We will need the disruption to occur on the Atlantic side to gain from this. For me, I would like to some kind of break up or shifting of the strong Canadian vortex which presently is preventing any blocking in the Atlantic sector.

Something akin to Feb 1991 could possibly occur with the current vortex pattern.

[Isolated Frost]

I was looking at today's ECMWF output and then I looked at this thread, knowing there would be mass over-reaction- I had a very good laugh from pages 4-5 today !

Number 1: This is ONE run, the last 5-10 runs ALL brought in ne or e winds. You have to be really ignorant to base your thoughts off ONE run.

Number 2: For those saying the situation has been watered down, then of course cold easterlies at 240 will be watered down at 144, 90% of the time.. I mean as well as this, a 2-3 day easterly was the most we could of expected with a weak northern ridge, unstable upper trough and the atlantic pressing by. So 240 is likely to be atlantic dominated, and so is 192-216 tbf.

Number 3: The option of warm cores and warmer sectors have mainly caused the above, synoptically we are very similar to 2 days ago.

Number 4: The modelling of the upper trough digging into europe is what is causing problems; a solution of the upper trough digging into the north sea allowed brief ne/e winds before the atlantic was expected to crash in.

Number 5: The 00z solution was very different in many regards to previous solutions, the ensembles will come out soon.

Number 6: I sense a lot of IMBYism, due to the lack of easterly projected and therefore bias in their posts.. Of course an easterly would be ideal, but patience is needed, cool zonality looks a good shot without another strat warming.

One of the mt's legendary mood swings today.. We'll only declare winners at the date of verification, not at +168 thanks