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February CET


leicsnow

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Ever since the models have flipped to mild, everyone has been making 4+ estimations. When they were showing deep cold at the weekend, we were all predicting less than 2. Funny how things change...

Edited by Tellow
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Difficult to call, I'll say 3.8c - a cold start but slowly warming up but never that mild.

By the way I used to be Timmy H (I have done Nov through to Jan so far in the competition).

Will account for that

My guess is 3.1c

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

3.5C- I think a milder spell now looks very likely into next week but there is also a strong signal for Greenland blocking around midmonth- which is rarely associated with particularly warm outcomes.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

February CET entries and past highlights, averages

_____________________________________________________

8.0+ .. snow freak (said 12.5 probably in jest)

8.0 .. Craig Evans

7.9 .. mildest (1779)

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5 .. 2nd mildest (1869)

7.4

7.3 .. 3rd mildest (1990 & 1998)

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.9 .. Jason M, Robbie Garrett (also guesses 0,9, actual entry up to J-1)

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5 .. The PIT, Roger J Smith

5.4

5.3 .. Optimus Prime

5.2

5.1 .. snow? norfolk n chance, Mr_Data

5.0 .. Solar Sausage, Scorcher, sundog

4.9 .. stewfox

4.8 .. reef

4.7 .. Mark Bayley

4.6

4.5 .. Tellow, Mark Ox Neal,

4.4 .. Ferryhill Weather ..... ------------ average for 1981-2010 ----------------

4.3 .. Kentish Man

4.2 .. -------- average for 1971-2000 -----------

4.1 .. Duncan McAlister

4.0 .. AderynCoch

(4.0) ... median value of all 352 years 1659-2011 ... the mean is 3.87

3.9 .. Aaron

3.8 .. BARRY, Froze were the Days (was Timmy H)

3.7 .. DR Hosking ..... ------------------- average for 1961-90 -------------------

3.6

3.5 .. djrikki, Thundery Winter Showers

3.4 .. Davehsug

3.3

3.2 .. coram, Harve, Norrance, Don

3.1 .. Styx, SP1986, Fozfoster, RAIN RAIN RAIN, JackOne

3.0 .. kold weather, Paul T, Jonathan F, feb1991blizzard

2.9 .. Milhouse

2.8 .. Isolated Frost, damianslaw

2.7 .. Jack Wales

2.6 .. DeepSnow

2.5 .. Rainbow Snow, Sunlover, Syed2878

2.4

2.3 .. Summer Blizzard

2.2 .. SteveB

2.1 .. BornFromTheVoid

2.0 .. Polar Gael, Campsie Snow Storm, TonyH

1.9 .. Burwell Weather Watch

1.8

1.7 .. Polar Maritime, Terminal Moraine

1.6

1.5 .. virtualsphere, godber, AtlanticFlamethrower

1.4 .. letitsnowyorkshire, LomondSnowstorm

1.3

1.2 .. geoffw

1.1 .. TobyT, mutzy

1.0

0.9

0.8 .. max011293

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4 .. frozencanals

0.3 .. Backtrack

0.2 .. Koppite, jonboy, Midlands Ice Age

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4 ..

-0.5 .. Stationary Front, DAVID SNOW

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8 .. snowlover2009

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1 .. coldest since 1947 (1986)

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6 .. trickydicky

-1.7 .. 3rd coldest (1855)

-1.8 .. 2nd coldest (1895)

-1.9 .. coldest (1947)

-2.0 .. Snowstorm1

-2.1 .. SLEETY

________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________

check your entries, for example with the 1.4 of LomondSnowstorm the entry looks a bit like -1.4, but I checked his blog and there's a dash before all three CET forecasts there.

Will update with any later entries ... the above are all "on time"

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Posted
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)
  • Location: Teston, Kent (3mls SW of Maidstone)

I am going to take the penalty point hit and risk annoying Mr Data (see post 72) by lowering my guess. After yesterday's mild model outlook there now looks like a strong likelihood of high pressure sitting over the CET zone next week with the milder SWlys confined to Scotland at times.

Revised guess 2.4C please.

Edited by Kentish Man
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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Well the 1st came in at 0.6C

GFS 12z would suggest dipping under 0C in the next couple of days and staying there for a few days. In fact by the 10th it could still be around -0.5C

If it was, it would require the rest of the month to average 5C, just to scrape above 3C by month end.

Looking at the overall profile i would say something below 3C is favoured presently. If it is 3.0C or less it would be the 5th winter month in last ten to be so which is not too shabby considering we had a run of 36 winter months prior to that that where the temp got nowhere near as low as that. In fact only 5 of those 36, made it below 4C

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

Well the 1st came in at 0.6C

GFS 12z would suggest dipping under 0C in the next couple of days and staying there for a few days. In fact by the 10th it could still be around -0.5C

If it was, it would require the rest of the month to average 5C, just to scrape above 3C by month end.

Looking at the overall profile i would say something below 3C is favoured presently. If it is 3.0C or less it would be the 5th winter month in last ten to be so which is not too shabby considering we had a run of 36 winter months prior to that that where the temp got nowhere near as low as that. In fact only 5 of those 36, made it below 4C

Yes it sounds promising for a nice CET figure for February. It'd also be the 1st in 5 winter months to have a sub 3 CET. It could 'make' this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Yes it sounds promising for a nice CET figure for February. It'd also be the 1st in 5 winter months to have a sub 3 CET. It could 'make' this winter.

At the moment, I doubt this - unless the output for February changes. If things don't work right, it could be pretty mild from the 8th onwards and this weekends snow event could be the last time you'll see snow this winter!

However, it all depends on whether the Scandi Hi will want to stay, personally I believe that this will not happen. Therefore, my eyes are fixed for height rises over Greenland and to whether there is cold pooling over Europe and northerlies over us.

A very mild winter for SE, one of the mildest is looking on the cards whereas in Scotland it may just come in slightly above average - however if things do go well Scotland could still achieve a 4th consecutive below average winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Anybody know what the sunniest February on record was?

Some of the outputs look very sunny.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Anybody know what the sunniest February on record was?

Some of the outputs look very sunny.

I think Feb 2008 was one of the sunniest on record thanks to the exceptional anticylonic warm period mid month. Feb can be a sunny and very dry month, it is not a month renowned for stormy atlantic conditions indeed I've known many a drier settled Feb than July.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

I think Feb 2008 was one of the sunniest on record thanks to the exceptional anticylonic warm period mid month. Feb can be a sunny and very dry month, it is not a month renowned for stormy atlantic conditions indeed I've known many a drier settled Feb than July.

February 1998 had a dry sunny and warm spell. Do you know why that happened and what caused it? I'm interested to know.

Edited by Tellow
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I will update the table for entries on the first and second after midnight. What's the verdict on Robbie Garrett's dual prediction?

You'd better be right about this mild month, PIT, or I will find a new best friend.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

February CET entries and past highlights, averages

_____________________________________________________

8.0+ .. snow freak (said 12.5 probably in jest)

8.0 .. Craig Evans

7.9 .. mildest (1779)

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.5 .. 2nd mildest (1869)

7.4

7.3 .. 3rd mildest (1990 & 1998)

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.3

6.2

6.1

6.0

5.9 .. Jason M, Robbie Garrett (also guesses 0,9, actual entry up to J-1)

5.8

5.7

5.6

5.5 .. The PIT, Roger J Smith

5.4

5.3 .. Optimus Prime

5.2

5.1 .. snow? norfolk n chance, Mr_Data

5.0 .. Solar Sausage, Scorcher, sundog

4.9 .. stewfox, Bluebreezer54*

4.8 .. reef, mark4**

4.7 .. Mark Bayley

4.6 .. Stargazer**

4.5 .. Tellow, Mark Ox Neal,

4.4 .. Ferryhill Weather ..... ------------ average for 1981-2010 ----------------

4.3 ..

4.2 .. -------- average for 1971-2000 -----------

4.1 .. Duncan McAlister

4.0 .. AderynCoch

(4.0) ... median value of all 352 years 1659-2011 ... the mean is 3.87

3.9 .. Aaron

3.8 .. BARRY, Froze were the Days (was Timmy H)

3.7 .. DR Hosking ..... ------------------- average for 1961-90 -------------------

3.6

3.5 .. djrikki, Thundery Winter Showers

3.4 .. Davehsug

3.3 .. Stormmad26*

3.2 .. coram, Harve, Norrance, Don

3.1 .. Styx, SP1986, Fozfoster, RAIN RAIN RAIN, JackOne

3.0 .. kold weather, Paul T, Jonathan F, feb1991blizzard

2.9 .. Milhouse

2.8 .. Isolated Frost, damianslaw

2.7 .. Jack Wales

2.6 .. DeepSnow

2.5 .. Rainbow Snow, Sunlover, Syed2878

2.4 .. Kentish Man*

2.3 .. Summer Blizzard

2.2 .. SteveB

2.1 .. BornFromTheVoid

2.0 .. Polar Gael, Campsie Snow Storm, TonyH

1.9 .. Burwell Weather Watch

1.8 .. Great Plum**

1.7 .. Polar Maritime, Terminal Moraine

1.6

1.5 .. virtualsphere, godber, AtlanticFlamethrower

1.4 .. letitsnowyorkshire, LomondSnowstorm

1.3

1.2 .. geoffw

1.1 .. TobyT, mutzy

1.0

0.9

0.8 .. max011293

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4 .. frozencanals

0.3 .. Backtrack

0.2 .. Koppite, jonboy, Midlands Ice Age

0.1

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4 ..

-0.5 .. Stationary Front, DAVID SNOW

-0.6

-0.7

-0.8 .. snowlover2009

-0.9

-1.0

-1.1 .. coldest since 1947 (1986)

-1.2

-1.3

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6 .. trickydicky

-1.7 .. 3rd coldest (1855)

-1.8 .. 2nd coldest (1895)

-1.9 .. coldest (1947)

-2.0 .. Snowstorm1

-2.1 .. SLEETY

________________________________________________________________

________________________________________________________________

check your entries, for example with the 1.4 of LomondSnowstorm the entry looks a bit like -1.4, but I checked his blog and there's a dash before all three CET forecasts there.

updated with late entries

* for each day late

change noted for Kentish Man.

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