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February CET


leicsnow

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

February 1998 had a dry sunny and warm spell. Do you know why that happened and what caused it? I'm interested to know.

Have a look here

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72421-a-cold-and-snow-fans-nightmare-forecast/

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72421-a-cold-and-snow-fans-nightmare-forecast/

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

We had a barbeque and sat in our garden on in shorts and t shirts at the weekend following that forecast - I think London got to 20C

Back to the CET

-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.

GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

We had a barbeque and sat in our garden on in shorts and t shirts at the weekend following that forecast - I think London got to 20C

Back to the CET

-0.4C to the 2nd. Likely to hover close to the zero mark for a few days unless forecasts are dramatically wrong.

GFS 12z follows the theme of yesterdays CFS with what would likely be a month long cold spell. Long way to go yet but if you have guessed 4C or over, you can probably tear up your betting slip now.

With pleasure! (I guessed 4.5 when it wasn't looking good)

Edited by Tellow
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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border

My first cet prediction of 2.3

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

-0.9C to the 3rd of February.

Another falling day today, but the next few days after that may see the figure rise, but only slightly as it stays on the cold side. Another cold blast forecast for next weekend, but very much FI at present.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)

-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)

-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)

-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)

-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)

-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)

-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)

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Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester

Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.

Mmm I don't think maxima will be around 0c. More like 2.0c or slightly higher. Most places have got a few degrees above freezing today.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Mmm I don't think maxima will be around 0c. More like 2.0c or slightly higher. Most places have got a few degrees above freezing today.

Ok, I'm was just going by the xcweather map that showed maxima at around 0C or below, could have missed the peak by a bit I suppose. A maximum of 2C would make it -1.3C tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Going by the current models we are certainly going to have a shot at a sub-zero month, though very long way to go till then...

Something around the 1.6-1.8C mark will give us a technical below average winter by the 71-00 scale...amazing really!!

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Minimum today is -7.2C while maxima look like being around 0C, so a drop back to around -1.6C tomorrow is a good bet.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at

-1.3C to the 5th (0.0)

-0.8C to the 6th (1.3)

-0.5C to the 7th (1.3)

-0.9C to the 8th (-3.3)

-0.9C to the 9th (-1.1)

-0.9C to the 10th (-0.4)

-1.0C to the 11th (-2.0)

Certainly there is strong potential for at least the first half of the month coming in below 0 degrees.

I would have thought the start to Feb 86 was equally as cold as to the start of this month? Could winter 11/12 be a role reversal of winter 10/11 with a very cold last 4 weeks as opposed to a very cold first 4 weeks. There is a chance the winter as a whole comes out slightly below the average, despite the mild Dec and January something many people a couple of weeks ago would have said is impossible.

I do feel this month could easily beat Feb 91 for coldness but certainly not 1986 - I might be wrong..

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Posted
  • Location: Southend on Sea, London, Jarnac in France
  • Location: Southend on Sea, London, Jarnac in France

I thought I was being way over optimistic with my punt of 0.4C but it looks a bit more attainable now given the current output, still a long way to go though.

FC

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

To be fair i think the chances of getting back to average are now gone, it would take something unprecedented if the CET is near -1C to the 11th.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

How many winters have seen consecutive freezing months?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

How many winters have seen consecutive freezing months?

Do you mean sub zero CET values.

I think 1963 was the last time. Jan and Feb 63 in that case.

Sure we have seen many other examples in the 17th, 18th and 19th century.

Had the cold of Jan 47 arrived a couple weeks earlier then Jan and Feb 1947 would have joined the list.

I think the 20th Jan - 19 March 47 saw a 8-9 week sub zero period.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Sorry i meant like Winter 2011 having one and then winter 2012.

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

Hadley is -1.3C to the 4th. Yesterday was the coldest day of the winter so far at -2.3C.

Another below freezing mean likely today, but then it becomes less clear and more dependent on cloud amounts.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

For this site

The start to February is is the coldest this century, I say that, as I can only easily access my data from 2000

The mean is 0.1C for the first 5 days, nothing as cold as that in the previous 11 years.

2009 was the last cold start with a mean of 0.6C for the first 5 days and a cold first 2 weeks with a mean to the 14th of 1.3C with snow falling on 6 days with a max depth of 3cm.

February 2006 had a mean in the first 5 days of 2.8C and 2007 turned colder after the 3rd with a mean over the next 8 days of 2.1C.

So not totally unknown but pretty impressive so far.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Some places are milder than expected today though, looks like we might get up to 7C here which is not far off average. Definitely milder air in the west of the country.

And the CET rose by 0.5C yesterday as a result. Hawarden and Shawbury saw high maxima as you rightly note.

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Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK

Hmmm, I take it the CET will probably end up around the 1 or 2 mark through this milder interlude, and the colder interlude if it happens at the end should ride those temperatures down to the 1 figure, maybe hitting 0.9 haha!

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Posted
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)
  • Location: Llanwnnen, Lampeter, Ceredigion, 126m asl (exotic holidays in Rugby/ Coventry)

And the CET rose by 0.5C yesterday as a result. Hawarden and Shawbury saw high maxima as you rightly note.

Hawarden is in Wales

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

-0.8C to the 5th.

Seems like a west/east split at the moment with maxima east of Birmingham in the 1-3C range but milder further west.

For BD11 it looks like ice days until Sunday after today.

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