Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[kold weather]

I think that is being a bit negative, unless you are talking about lying snow, but I still think there would be lying snow at levels lower than that esp. inland.

Yeah I'm talking about lying snow with that. The question IMO is how strong the front will be, I've seen fronts just totally give up the ghost before as it hits the colder air, that'd be my main concern rather then the front not getting far enough east. My gut is the models maybe somewhat over-doing the fronts strength based on experience.

I'd expect snowfall for most aty some point, esp if the fronrt is still hanging around in some form or another come Monday morning. Higher ground above 200M will get ALOT of snow IMO...probably 6-9 inches.

[soupsurfer7]

Here's my prediction. Tomorrow morning: light patchy rain for western counties of Wales, very gradually spreading east. Temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Then, through the afternoon, the upper air temps should start to fall. Definitely snow on higher ground, then coming down to low levels through the afternoon and evening. good luck everyone!

[kold weather]

GFS lamost attempts round two on Monday night as another weak low forms and tries to slide under the block. IMO quite plauseable solution given we already have one system try and pull that trick.

Could be a very snowy start to the week for you lucky people!

[welshwizard]

Hold your horses folks, the precipitation isn't even due into the west of Wales until tomorrow morning. Take a look at this:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Use the slider bar/arrows to step through the time period 6 hours at a time.

that is a very good site to show what they expect over the next day or so,and if correct west wales will have something coming down for 3 days,but from looking at rain radar it shows the front to be covering the whole ov ireland from 6 oclock tonight and just seems to be pushing south from what i can see,as i have said before i dont know much and hope you are correct.

[soupsurfer7]

Radar now showing ppt coming into north west Wales.

[Snowmadsam]

from the current conditions is it more likely to turn to snow over South West Wales?

GFS 18z stonker again, what if this continues?

[J10]

NAE extends snow risk for Wales tomorrow night and into Monday am. Precipitation amounts slighlty higher, dewpoints slightly lower than 12Hz run, not massive differences but poss enough to make a difference.Snow now less likely to revert back to rain or sleet into Monday.

[TonyH]

Here's my prediction. Tomorrow morning: light patchy rain for western counties of Wales, very gradually spreading east. Temperatures a few degrees above freezing. Then, through the afternoon, the upper air temps should start to fall. Definitely snow on higher ground, then coming down to low levels through the afternoon and evening. good luck everyone!

That's pretty much what I expect to see. A light snow fall tomorrow night, with a bit of luck a covering Monday morning, then probably slowly thawing during Monday (if we get it that is!)..

[georgiedre]

Radar now showing ppt coming into north west Wales.

Nothing falling here at the moment soupserfer . Temp in the area around me is about 1 -2 c so I doubt it will snow. What do u lot think?(i live in caernarfon) nw wales

[Buzz]

For those wanting further confirmation (or as much as can be expected) step through the NAE charts here:

http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Rain won't arrive until the early morning in the west of Wales - it will turn to snow in the central belt and east in the middle of the day, then snow over the bulk of Wales in the afternoon and overnight, maybe fizzling out or turning back to sleet or rain in the west during Monday.

However, as with all snow forecasts, this may of course be wrong!

[worldairgroup]

itv weather forecast for wales @22:40pm - david wright has said up to 4 inches of snow tomorrow for south wales. continuing into monday, once snow clears it will get even colder later into week.

[welshwizard]

itv just showed snow for wales,showed sleet for west wales snow from say swansea to cardiff north to south and then sleet newport area. he said the middle belt could give upto 4 inches.

[worldairgroup]

itv just showed snow for wales,showed sleet for west wales snow from say swansea to cardiff north to south and then sleet newport area. he said the middle belt could give upto 4 inches.

yep as i note above welshwizard, glad you saw it as well. EDIT he did mention though some un-certainties about where will have mmost snow.

[J10]

NAE 12Hz and slight upgrades for tomorrow, with more pink in the Chart, however things do get more marginal again on Monday.

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 12 noon Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints

http://expert-images...012918_2812.gif 6pm tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2812.gif midnight tomorrow (12Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2812.gif 6am Monday (12Hz Run)

http://expert-images...012918_2806.gif 6pm tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013000_2806.gif midnight tomorrow (06Hz run)

http://expert-images...013006_2806.gif 6am tomorrow (06Hz run)

Dewpoints are generally close to freezing, and fall overnight, before rising again into Monday.

So in summary IMO - again based on the models and likely to change - Valleys likely to see snow throughout

Rain turning to snow elsewhere, esp away from low ground on coast, but perhaps reverting back to sleet as Monday progresses. Precipitation amounts over 25mm in Pembrokshire, maybe 15-20mm in SE Wales valleys, 0-2mm in NE Wales.

-----------------------------

These were the 12Hz charts., uipon which the 18Hz are better than

[TonyH]

Seems more consensus on severe cold from Thursday now, with ECM and recent GFS runs singing from the same hymn sheet.

[TheWeatherGirl]

incredibly cold in caerphilly tonight, really biting air. I have a feeling something good is on its way . . > .

[welshwizard]

yep as i note above welshwizard, glad you saw it as well. EDIT he did mention though some un-certainties about where will have mmost snow.

to be honest i dont think anyone can say where the snow will fall,and good luck to everyone who wants snow,lets just hope Andy gets it, in fact lets hope we all get it except for my mate micky coz he lives in foggy brynna and they only ever get fog,wait till he reads this ha ha. they did have snow there once but he wasnt living there then ha ha.

[WalsallWeather]

As people are saying east from Swansea is looking good for snow. Unfortunately I am not expecting snow, I expect a mix of sleet and maybe some snow when the night is at its coldest, however it won't settle and more sleet will follow.

It reminds me a lot of the same kind of set up as December last year. I didn't see any then either.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Here's the Met Office fax chart for Mid day tomorrow:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax24s.gif

So we have some Atlantic (warm) fronts attempting to make progress eastwards against a slack easterly flow with colder air moving off the continent, so what we have is the milder Atlantic air interacting with colder continental air with potential for snow somewhere along this point. As to where exactly will get the snow its difficult to tell the models have shifted the snow risk eastwards and back westwards today.

One thing i did notice was the 0C Isotherm level:

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png

GFS showing it around 500-600m at first rising from the SW thereafter, this is a better level we have seen so far this winter at least.

Like what has already been mentioned Central/East Wales will have the greatest chance for falling and sticking snow, this is because of the colder temps, dew points and upper air. As for the West i think some falling snow is possible away from the direct coastline with mainly sleet and rain in the far SW of Wales where the dew points will remain above freezing:

http://expert-images...2918_2_2818.gif

http://expert-images...2921_2_2818.gif

http://expert-images...3000_2_2818.gif

[mikeocarroll]

Radar currently showing a few tiny bits of light precipitation across Wales and the West Midlands, showing as sleet. Has anyone observed any precip falling or is this just radar noise?

-2.9c here, colder than I would expect given that we have around 50% cloud cover atm.

[SLAMMER]

its always cold in dodge. -13.5 degrees on christmas day at midday last year.

where abouts are you?

[DeepSnow]

Its great to seel the models continue to show the easterly for next week, getting very cold at times too! As for tomorrow, again now i have a bit more confidence that a lot of Wales will get snow at some point, just think it will be a close call lower down near to the coast in the west and sw of Wales, though not so much for south east wales maybe? It all looks very interesting though and hope for some good charts in the morning!

[J10]

Here's the Met Office fax chart for Mid day tomorrow:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax24s.gif

So we have some Atlantic (warm) fronts attempting to make progress eastwards against a slack easterly flow with colder air moving off the continent, so what we have is the milder Atlantic air interacting with colder continental air with potential for snow somewhere along this point. As to where exactly will get the snow its difficult to tell the models have shifted the snow risk eastwards and back westwards today.

One thing i did notice was the 0C Isotherm level:

http://cdn.nwstatic....degisotherm.png

GFS showing it around 500-600m at first rising from the SW thereafter, this is a better level we have seen so far this winter at least.

Like what has already been mentioned Central/East Wales will have the greatest chance for falling and sticking snow, this is because of the colder temps, dew points and upper air. As for the West i think some falling snow is possible away from the direct coastline with mainly sleet and rain in the far SW of Wales where the dew points will remain above freezing:

http://expert-images...2918_2_2818.gif

http://expert-images...2921_2_2818.gif

http://expert-images...3000_2_2818.gif

It is very noticable that dew points are around 1c colder than on the 12Hz run, meaning that snow will be more extensive than previously shown on TV weather forecasts. I do think that the Valleys will have predominantly a snow event, while other areas will see rain turning readily to snow tomorrow evening into the overnight period, temps are also now forecast to be lower on monday, so it turning back to rain will be less than previously suggested before.

I think this more case of snow tomorrow night with rain/sleet on coasts in the far SW, rather than rain with snow on hills.

NMM now out, also suggests more snow than 12Hz, rain/sleet on coast, but snow inland for all of Wales. Temps 0-1c for most of wales by 6pm.

[worldairgroup]

to be honest i dont think anyone can say where the snow will fall,and good luck to everyone who wants snow,lets just hope Andy gets it, in fact lets hope we all get it except for my mate micky coz he lives in foggy brynna and they only ever get fog,wait till he reads this ha ha. they did have snow there once but he wasnt living there then ha ha.

yep exactly andy is only about 2 miles from me, i am on a470 just behind tesco, upper boat!! at least i can give some updates on what the road conditions are like! certainly hoping for something, good luck to everyone.

[kold weather]

I think the forecast of 4 inches down the middle belt of Wales sounds pretty decent, esp on any higher ground where you'd benefit from having the snow begin much sooner.