Wales (Cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 2)

[Bobby]

The NAE shows up to 15-20cm of snow in the valleys, on altitude especially with snow all the way. The NMM shows about the same too

Intrestingly another feature develops later on Monday beneath us which could give another spell of significant snow to many spots into Tuesday.

[mikeocarroll]

If anyone wants an idea of how uncertain things are, check out the GFS ensembles, they begin to scatter after just 3-6 hours and it only gets worse after that. There's a couple of runs that pretty much show no easterly at all for us, atlantic winning straight away. Don't think that's going to happen though!

See http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20120128/12/t850Powys.png

[Daniel Miller]

I think the forecast of 4 inches down the middle belt of Wales sounds pretty decent, esp on any higher ground where you'd benefit from having the snow begin much sooner.

yep exactly andy is only about 2 miles from me, i am on a470 just behind tesco, upper boat!! at least i can give some updates on what the road conditions are like! certainly hoping for something, good luck to everyone.

Wow! You live literally just down the road from me then. I live in Rhydyfelin...

Pretty sure this is going to be a great cold/snowy period!

[worldairgroup]

Wow! You live literally just down the road from me then. I live in Rhydyfelin...

Pretty sure this is going to be a great cold/snowy period!

excellent daniel!! least we can both keep people updated!! hope it all works out and nature does what we want it to!!

[Marcus_surfer]

Pretty cold tonight, and quite cloudy too, 1.4C with a frost

[swales]

Got as low as 0.5c around 8ish this evening but gone up and steady at 1.0c currently.

I really hope I see something out this event but as always, disappointment is not uncommon.

Good luck everyone and stay safe.

[worldairgroup]

0 degrees here and has been for past 2 hours. hopefully good news later in morning, chris

[worldairgroup]

radar looking good guys its not dropping too far south at this time.

[Jackfrost]

Agreed. The fact that it's approaching from the northwest and intensifying as it does so bodes well for the PPN starting off as snow for more of the country.

[keithlucky]

Expect a upgrade from the met to amber alert mentioned on news24 they expect sleet to turn to snow after dark as heavier precipitation moves in ,i was expecting this as mentioned earlier.

[mikeocarroll]

The precipitation is going to move agonisingly slowly today, the main band is perhaps slightly ahead of what the models were predicting and has thrown out slightly more precip to the north than was expected, which is good for me I hope as it's heading this way (very, very, very, slowly). -1.4c here and rising slowly.

The GFS and ECM this morning both suggest a re-run on Tuesday-Wednesday with another front pushing in from the west and eventually sinking under the block. The GFS shows warm air mixing in a bit more than we would like meaning it would likely be a rain event especially further west, while the ECM has the cold air dug in much deeper (which would mean snow but also the precip getting less far east). Amazing differences between these two models at just over 48 hours.

Both ECM & GFS show the potential for further battleground scenarios later in the week and into next weekend, although impossible to predict at this stage. ECM shows the atlantic winning through by about day 10, GFS stays cold until deep FI.

[nwales]

Morning all, the precipitation looks to be pretty much on my door step now. Temp is 0.5c

[FROZENFOOT]

beautiful pink sky out there , i am under the foothills of the black mountains , near brecon (ish ) looking at the met office i am in for a nice snowfall.

although it is reading minus 3

[georgiedre]

Raining here

[Snowmadsam]

Sleet here at the moment....

[welshwizard]

lovely pink sky here this morn with ice on the cars and the stream to the side if the house coming down from top ov mountain has ice on the grass etc looks fab. i just looked at radar and it looks like north and west wales should be starting to see a bit of rain/sleet/snow keep us upto date guys.looks to me that this band is earlier than forecast,i think a few hours more and all ov wales be covered,but how much snow will there be lol. got kids rugby this morn if the grounds are not to hard so will check back later. good luck all i hope u get some of the white stuff.but micky dont deserve it ha ha.

[welshwizard]

Sleet here at the moment....

what is your height down there and what temps have u got?

[welshwizard]

i think this main band would have been better off waiting out there until tonight until temps drop again lol,rain and sleet so far been reported,going to be anxious wait for some to see if it turns to snow as they think it may,good luck over and out back after kids rugby.

[FROZENFOOT]

no rain or sleet here just dull low cloud , but the air feels very still

[Snowmadsam]

what is your height down there and what temps have u got?

100m asl dew 0.8 temp of 2.0

[welshwizard]

100m asl dew 0.8 temp of 2.0

bit ov luck then that should turn to snow as it gets going,you are quite high and quite cold sounds ok to me. just hope that it dont warm upto much,feels very cold outside this morn.

[Snowmadsam]

bit ov luck then that should turn to snow as it gets going,you are quite high and quite cold sounds ok to me. just hope that it dont warm upto much,feels very cold outside this morn.

If temp drops by half a degree should put dew down...ppn turned to rain for now but have a look at NAE charts to cheer you up...how i am going to do welsh homework today...no idea :lol:

[valley blue_501]

How we looking for the next few days in for Snow here in North Gwent valleys (Blaenavon)?

Cheers

[nwales]

Radar says the edge of the band arrived here 15 mins ago but there's nothing falling from the sky yet. Temp gone down slightly to 0.4c

[Snowmadsam]

I am like half a pixel away from sleet......