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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Sub zero days according to the GFS 12z next Friday into the weekend, with night time temps down to -6-8c

shame it's the gfs showing that, I'd be much happier if it was the ukmo/ecm showing it, ukmo isn't as good at the same time frame and the high has that sinking feeling, still there's no doubt the models struggle with these setups so here's hoping the gfs has it right for later next week but It'll be a concern in the ecm follows the ukmo.

Edited by Smartie
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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

shame it's the gfs showing that, I'd be much happier if it was the ukmo/ecm showing it, ukmo isn't as good at the same time frame and the high has that sinking feeling, still there's no doubt the models struggle with these setups so here's hoping the gfs has it right for later next week.

Plenty still to play for, but at least it gives us something to talk about at last, thought this winter was going to be a total write off.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

I don't know why your giving up mate, we have a very real chance of seeing snow. If you were living in Cornwall, maybe I could understand, but Bristol has, & still is in a favourable place to see snow.

just been Reading through some Twitter posts by Ian Fergusson, and he is quite bullish about the snow mainly being on higher ground ( Cotswolds, Moors, Mendips etc )!

The Met office warning also says about it being rain and hill snow, with accumalations above 150m only!

The NAE also has it as a snow to higher ground feature too!

Hopefully things might improve in the short term, but I can't see it affecting places like Bristol!

At least long term things still look interesting! GFS is a cracking run for cold and eventually snow! UKMO is not so good but that only goes to T144!

I feel pretty confident that we will see snow some time in Feb anyway!

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Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions

If things went a bit west would be great for us westies :D

Edited by Snowmadsam
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Posted
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Longlevens, 16m ASL (H)/Bradley Stoke, 75m ASL (W)

just been Reading through some Twitter posts by Ian Fergusson, and he is quite bullish about the snow mainly being on higher ground ( Cotswolds, Moors, Mendips etc )!

The Met office warning also says about it being rain and hill snow, with accumalations above 150m only!

The NAE also has it as a snow to higher ground feature too!

Hopefully things might improve in the short term, but I can't see it affecting places like Bristol!

At least long term things still look interesting! GFS is a cracking run for cold and eventually snow! UKMO is not so good but that only goes to T144!

I feel pretty confident that we will see snow some time in Feb anyway!

Exactly the thoughts I posted earlier in the thread, Id would be fairly excited if I lived in the Forest of Dean, the Cotswolds might not yet see the PPN.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Plenty still to play for, but at least it gives us something to talk about at last, thought this winter was going to be a total write off.

Here's hoping we have alot more to talk about around 6.30 when the ecm is rolling out & I'm never one to write off winter myself and I did find it amusing how some were at the end of dec, early jan, especially with all the events that were being talked about in the strat thread at the time.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

Lol already showers from the stalling front into Cornwall rather worrying or good ?? as the GFS doesn't have any PPN anywhere near the West country for the next 12 hours , If we get into a situation where the PPN beats the warm sector that would be great ... Worth mentioning as that is what the radar is currently showing and any early PPN that got in tonight would be snow

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

How would you rate the chances of snow for Bristol, Weston and Taunton Chris?

You seem to talk some sense and know what your talking about! Lol!

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Lol already showers from the stalling front into Cornwall rather worrying or good ?? as the GFS doesn't have any PPN anywhere near the West country for the next 12 hours , If we get into a situation where the PPN beats the warm sector that would be great ... Worth mentioning as that is what the radar is currently showing and any early PPN that got in tonight would be snow

Latest bbc forecast shows it getting into somerset/bristol area albeit patchy by mid day.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil

Latest bbc forecast shows it getting into somerset/bristol area albeit patchy by mid day.

whats parts of somerset may i ask?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Latest bbc forecast shows it getting into somerset/bristol area albeit patchy by mid day.

Was it shown as rain or snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

whats parts of somerset may i ask?

wells, bristol, wincanton by 12 on map

They showed rain... however she said mainly sleet at low levels but they cannot rule out snow...so they unsure

Edited by mullender83
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The latest T48 FAX chart as a slight shift westwards of the front on Monday!

However one thing that is bugging me is that the 528 DAM line is to the east of our region! I thought for snow chance, thickness has to be 528 or less?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

You must be getting rather excited! It seems you and your hill could get a covering by Monday Morning!

Mendips a good spot according to Ian Fergusson on Twitter!

Good luck to you!]

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

How would you rate the chances of snow for Bristol, Weston and Taunton Chris?

You seem to talk some sense and know what your talking about! Lol!

It really is one of them look out the window events ... I wouldn't in this case bother to much with forecasts as there changing all the time. I would rate Bristol though as all the maps and models are still pointing this as a Jackpot area. Weston I think will be to low down and coastal , Taunton maybe a rain to snow ???? It really depends how far East the warmer uppers gets and how far West the Cold uppers will get , and indeed how far East the PPN will even get.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

You must be getting rather excited! It seems you and your hill could get a covering by Monday Morning!

Mendips a good spot according to Ian Fergusson on Twitter!

Good luck to you!]

Yes I am getting excited but I am still nervous with this type of setup! Id rather it was less marginal for west country!

If it does actualy arrive here your welcome to pop up for a drink in me local :drinks::friends:

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

It really is one of them look out the window events ... I wouldn't in this case bother to much with forecasts as there changing all the time. I would rate Bristol though as all the maps and models are still pointing this as a Jackpot area. Weston I think will be to low down and coastal , Taunton

maybe a rain to snow ???? It really depends how far East the warmer uppers gets and how far West the Cold uppers will get , and indeed how far East the PPN will even get.

Thanks for that mate! I'm working in North Somerset/Bristol area Monday morning so I will hope for the best!

What as the 12z ECM made of our chances?

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil

I really cannot see this happening, it's far too warm IMO

To warm its 0c here! with a dewpoint of -2c surely thats cold enough!

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Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset

This is like the old days,i think were going to be in luck,snow by this time tomorrow i reckon (hope) .

Hope so , but if not the latest from the GFS camp is showing quite a few chances for something as we go through next week , all in all I think by the time the Atlantic becomes back in control which could be quite a long time all of us would have seen something .. Best case for us would be an attempted break down that fails.

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