The Midlands Regional Discussion Thread

[Arctic Hare]

Just a thought, and feel free to shoot me down if it's a silly one... but might there be a chance of freezing rain for some of this region over the weekend?

[A.J]

Hope you wasn't referring to me, AJ?

That would be rather petty if my posts were regarded as negative and unobjective, simply because I was giving an honest opinion on NWP output that wasn't as optimistic or "ramped up" as most of the bias that plagues this forum.

I'm referring to all members who have the tendency to post negative one-liners without any corroborating info to back up said one liner....If you think that refers to you, then so be it, ...If you think it's not referring to you then you have nothing to worry about....My function on the team is to ensure the smooth harmonious running of the regionals, too encourage discussion & debate, and to steer posts onto the right track as per forum guidelines.....Posts that do not comply with these points will be moderated...I hope that this makes things clearer for you ....if you need further clarification then either pm me or another member of the site team

[BlueHedgehog074]

Recently tweeted the Met Office asking them: "on a scale of one to ten, what would you say are the chances of Birmingham seeing some snow over the weekend?"

Their reply was, "Tricky one, too early to say with any certainty, I would say 5, as it's 50/50!"

Considering it is still a few days to go with ajustments to be made, that seems a reasonably decent chance. The 12Z GFS model also go for a highish snow risk for a brief time over the weekend. Suppose obviously, if the Atlantic makes even more of an influence and brings in warmer air quicker, then the snow chance could be jeopardized.

[A.J]

Recently tweeted the Met Office asking them: "on a scale of one to ten, what would you say are the chances of Birmingham seeing some snow over the weekend?"

Their reply was, "Tricky one, too early to say with any certainty, I would say 5, as it's 50/50!"

Considering it is still a few days to go with ajustments to be made, that seems a reasonably decent chance. The 12Z GFS model also go for a highish snow risk for a brief time over the weekend. Suppose obviously, if the Atlantic makes even more of an influence and brings in warmer air quicker, then the snow chance could be jeopardized.

with of course the opposite being true if the milder air is brought in slower......................

[conor123]

Can we please have some objectivity in this thread.....have a look at what's being posted elsewhere, perhaps look even some of the other regional threads...Why is this particular thread seemingly cluttered with negativity? It's not good for the thread as it will put off other members from posting in here which would be a crying shame.....If you believe that the future weather is/will be not to your liking, and you see something in predicted weather patterns that support this then please say so, not just say 'there will be no snow' full stop,,,

cheers

Well the 18z for one is yet another run that says no to anything wintry along with the FAX charts and there's no denying this whole cold spell has gone completely pearshaped from potential sub -15 850hPa's and heavy snow shower potential to just a standard frosty spell which is not even providing that thus far just broken-overcast skies and grimness and now the increasing possibility the atlantic will just march on in and were have to clutch straws again on getting a Northerly in 10 days time or so.

After the pearshaped wintry spells of December and then nothing all January it's pretty hard not to assume that this weekends low will just barge on through and introduce milder air without any snow whatsoever.

I was at least hoping of the possibility of some Ice Days and rime/major frosts but its still 1c and mostly cloudy now so yet another dissapointment in that respect.

[A.J]

Well the 18z for one is yet another run that says no to anything wintry along with the FAX charts and there's no denying this whole cold spell has gone completely pearshaped from potential sub -15 850hPa's and heavy snow shower potential to just a standard frosty spell which is not even providing that thus far just broken-overcast skies and grimness and now the increasing possibility the atlantic will just march on in and were have to clutch straws again on getting a Northerly in 10 days time or so.

After the pearshaped wintry spells of December and then nothing all January it's pretty hard not to assume that this weekends low will just barge on through and introduce milder air without any snow whatsoever.

I was at least hoping of the possibility of some Ice Days and rime/major frosts but its still 1c and mostly cloudy now so yet another dissapointment in that respect.

A good post Conor, I not totally in agreement with you as it currently stands (18z pub run and all that) but a good post with reasoning none the less...worth noting that your post almost infers the atlantic barrels on through tomorrow, when there's still 90 hours or so until we feel the atlantic's influence, until then clearing skies and very cold day/night temperatures with potential for snow showers/flurries remains very firmly on the cards

[conor123]

Hopefully with the colder uppers arriving tommorow skies should clear to allow temperature's to properly fall, GFS is going at widespread -6/-7 Thursday & Friday night at least which indicates this should be the case although the -5's tonight seem unrealistic given the current cloudcover.

[Gord]

I think the answer is take things one event at a time.

The first event is that we still haven't reached the coldest part of week yet? Is that right? So frosty, with potential rime, is still a possibility this week. In fact, it has cleared out there now.

I think by Thursday/early Friday the weekend can start to be assessed fully. Then we get to Saturday and Sunday we'll look at the new working week. Now for a forecaster, thats too last minute I know...but for someone learning like me, I think in this situation taking it slowly 2 days at a time is the best policy.

Of course I'll still be looking at the models and reading comments on the Model threads...but in my mind, if there's uncertainity then I need to take it slowly!

[A.J]

Hopefully with the colder uppers arriving tommorow skies should clear to allow temperature's to properly fall, GFS is going at widespread -6/-7 Thursday & Friday night at least which indicates this should be the case although the -5's tonight seem unrealistic given the current cloudcover.

I know what you mean.....the grey gloom we've had today has surpressed daytime temps but is acting as a warm blanket as such overnight....A sharp frost tomorrow night under clear skies should be just the ticket!

[Gord]

Hopefully with the colder uppers arriving tommorow skies should clear to allow temperature's to properly fall, GFS is going at widespread -6/-7 Thursday & Friday night at least which indicates this should be the case although the -5's tonight seem unrealistic given the current cloudcover.

Skies have cleared very nicely here in the past hour Connor, you could see the same soon.

[davehsug]

Pity the poor METO forecasters. They openly admit they don't know which way this will all go. I notice complaints starting in the mod thread, about the Faxes again, but what are they to do? They can hardly make up a synoptic chart, when they genuinely aren't sure. In this instance, all you can do is put out pretty much what your model is showing, but add, as they have, that confidence is low.

[A.J]

Skies have cleared very nicely here in the past hour Connor, you could see the same soon.

lol....so it is!......that's what happens when I spend the evening 'keeping the peace' in here, I'm missing a beautiful star-lit night!...lol

[Gord]

The uncertainity stretches everywhere across the internet tonight. There's only forum I've been to where members seem very confident about a particular solution..and hats off to them if they're right. Lots and lots of good discussion tonight though, (including the place where confidence is higher!).

I'm wondering how cold it will get tonight here in the West Midlands now skies are clear. Are we about to get our teeth into some real cold temperatures at last?

[fizz511]

Of course it's going to snow in the Birmingham area at the weekend!

I've got 270 children to get through their Karate belt grading on a very tight schedule over Sat afternoon & Sunday, which will descend into utter chaos if any of them are held up due to snowy roads!

AJ - is that a negative or a positive post do you think....?

[PolarWarsaw]

Thoughts on the 0z GFS.

Looks relatively the same as the 18GFS - crap breakdown from the west. Can't be bothered for the rest of the run as its about as likely to come to verification as Ebbsfleet are signing Lionel Messi on the way to champions league glory. Kind of describes this winter for me. Lets head back to the 'trend' book shall we? Like the last 6 weeks - night from me.

[mackerel sky]

Hey, its midnight here in Houston and the temperature is 68F in US speak, or 20C in our language. Have the downgrades kicked in to the extent I won't see a thing on my return - Saturday.

[Barbmac]

Very cold here in Malvern, currently -3.8^oC.

AJ - as a member here who isn't up on all the models, etc, I enjoy reading what others post but have only limited understanding. I keep meaning to read the threads explaining it all when I get a few spare moments. Even so, I'd be scared to post anything model-related as I'm sure a bunch of people would jump in and disagree, and I'm not experienced enough to argue! :ph34r: So I hope I can continue to post any weather updates from my location, I promise I will try to figure out the models and other atmospheric stuff but I'm not as quick mentally as I used to be!

[andy_leics22]

*Shakes head* Just got back to see the 00z runs and they STINK. All of em.

UKMO t144.. Dreadful

ECM t144, just as bad

GFS t144.. Pass me the bucket

I did say yesterday in the model thread that we shouldn't go crazy from run to run but instead look for trends over a few days of runs... Well, the trend from the last few days is heading towards a mighty Azores high and mild crap for the UK again

[A.J]

Guys guys guys....first of all, morning all!....secondly, please read the post on the previous page ( I think) re. posting guidelines....what the team don't want to see is posts like....."it's not going to snow" whereas posts like "its not going to snow because.....etc etc" is good as long as there is reasoning......as far as posting weather reports, the weather in general, a bit of banter, that kind of stuff is concerned then brilliant that's what we want to see...I really want to see people/lurkers posting in here to enhance the community spirit, and not just the same contributors chastising the weather as it gets a bit much after a fashion.......and do be scared to post something, posts won't be 'jumped on' if incorrect, the site team will make sure of that....hell, you should some of the stuff I posted straight out the "talking complete pigswill about the weather" handbook.... :w00t:

[andy_leics22]

Guys guys guys....first of all, morning all!....secondly, please read the post on the previous page ( I think) re. posting guidelines....what the team don't want to see is posts like....."it's not going to snow" whereas posts like "its not going to snow because.....etc etc" is good as long as there is reasoning......as far as posting weather reports, the weather in general, a bit of banter, that kind of stuff is concerned then brilliant that's what we want to see...I really want to see people/lurkers posting in here to enhance the community spirit, and not just the same contributors chastising the weather as it gets a bit much after a fashion.......and do be scared to post something, posts won't be 'jumped on' if incorrect, the site team will make sure of that....hell, you should some of the stuff I posted straight out the "talking complete pigswill about the weather" handbook.... :w00t:

You got any of that strong Vodka you used to drink AJ? I need it after the overnight model runs :winky:

[A.J]

You got any of that strong Vodka you used to drink AJ? I need it after the overnight model runs :winky:

Vodka's for poofs!...I go for weapons grade diesel now :wacko: :lol:

[andy_leics22]

Vodka's for poofs!...I go for weapons grade diesel now :wacko: :lol:

I remember that time your tooth got messed about by the dentist and you were living on booze for a few days! Classic times.

As for the Weather... Well, make the most of these last 3 days of hard frosts and (maybe) light snow showers, because by next week we may be looking at weeks of mild tosh again.

[Barbmac]

hell, you should some of the stuff I posted straight out the "talking complete pigswill about the weather" handbook.... :w00t:

Morning! LOLOL would love to read that! I may be adding my own 2 penneth of pigswill at a later date.

[A.J]

Ok, so the 00z output is poor, but I've been trying to find something in the output to make me feel hopeful & better and I've found it......fear not snow lovers, forget the GFS/ECM/UKMO/BOM/NOGAPS etc etc as here's a decent looking model showing tons of the white stuff!!

[Barbmac]

Pffffffffffffffffft! Well I tried to redress the balance, so to speak, so googled 'male model snow' only I ended up with articles about the longevity of male snow crabs!

This will have to do: