Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 3)

[Snowmadsam]

I have been watching pressure charts somewhere else where they update every hour and the pressure seems to be getting higher good sign?

[valley blue_501]

A nice -11 oC this morning............ now thats cold on the old digits!!

How we looking for snow for Blaenavon? up in the Gwent valleys for tomorrow?

[mikeocarroll]

Min of -10.5c here (-10.1c currently, brrrr), dewpoint of -14.0c. May well end up with an ice day today.

Re: tomorrow, it looks a bit firmer now that it will be a snow to rain event. The snow could be very transient for low ground in the west, with a longer period of snow for higher ground and the east before turning to rain. The tops of the Beacons could stay with snow falling thoughout. Also as the shortwave dives south and colder air digs back in it's just possible that rain could turn back to snow especially in the north and east of Wales. There remains a possibility that the models and forecasts have this completely wrong, as these scenarios are very difficult to predict and therefore it could be an epic snow event for all, but that possibility is only around 10% or so in my book.

On a positive note any snow that does fall should settle and may not wash away in the rain as the ground is very cold. A possibility of freezing rain as well and travel could therefore be treacherous for a few hours tomorrow afternoon/evening.

Looking ahead to next week there is tremendous uncertainty, the GFS ensembles for Powys show this well, could be freezing next week or mild:

http://cdn.nwstatic....0/t850Powys.png

The model op runs show a similar split with plenty of cold possibilities on GFS & ECM but possible return to SWerlies on UKMO. There is a possiblity of further battleground or marginal events next week but too early to make any useful comment given the wild uncertainty.

Although this weekend may be a disappointment it is worth saying that these marginal/battleground events can bring the greatest snow to Wales and personally I'd rather the excitement of possible snow and will it? won't it? than endless cold, dry weather - so I'll enjoy tomorrow (hoping for a stalling front) and any snow that does come

Edited February 3, 2012 by mikeocarroll

[Jayfromcardiff]

Let's just enjoy any snow tomorrow even though it will be washed away

[Marcus_surfer]

-6.7C overnight very cold for my area

[andymusic]

Good Morning

For a fair bit of Wales the snow will turn to rain but only after a good 6 - 10 hours of snow - even better the GFS has Wales down for it's own snowfest come tuesday next week for a whole two days!

The cold will not be far away - the rain will be a "blip" of about a few hours and the milder air (if you can call it that) - no more than about 4c will only last a day or so - after that back into cold and more snow!

Edited February 3, 2012 by andymusic

[Gavla]

Is there still a chance this front could under estimate the block and slow its approach not arriving in wales until tommorow evening?, then stalling and pivoting over wales dumping all the white stuff? Thats not my dream forecast onest.

[mikeocarroll]

Is there still a chance this front could under estimate the block and slow its approach not arriving in wales until tommorow evening?, then stalling and pivoting over wales dumping all the white stuff? Thats not my dream forecast onest.

Yes there's a chance, just not a very high chance. 1 in 10 I'd say.

[Buzz]

Well, i'm feeling throughly despondent about any chances of snow tomorrow in my bit of Wales - some others may get some for a while, but it won't be long before it turns to rain.

I feel that a cold, wet and miserable day is in store for us on Saturday.

[Liam Ellis]

-3.8c minimum here in Central Cardiff last night, currently -2.6c.

[SLAMMER]

-6.6 here last night. only one night was colder in december 2010 when we got down to -6.8.

So, before people moan about this winter we've had some good cold days in the last week.

[Marcus_surfer]

Weather Online keeps the wintry weather with us next week with further snow chances Tuesday?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120203

[Gavla]

Weather Online keeps the wintry weather with us next week with further snow chances Tuesday?

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?LANG=en&MENU=weekahead&DAY=20120203

il take that any day, im starting to feel snow starved.

[mickeyflyn]

morning guys bbc still has this event as rain for wales tomor except for far east newport boarder,but by the looks it changes to rain there as well, i also notice that it feels warmer out today,even though its covered in frost just feels warmer,maybe its me lol. i am still going to believe,just like santa ha ha. just to add bbc local weather just said snow warning for east wales but will turn to rain and going milder,7 plus on sat and 6 plus on sunday.

i`m in Newport WEY HEY

[Cwmbran Eira]

Model discussion & Snow Risk discussion is so SE centric. Most are pretty much dismissing snow risk west of Birmingham. Quite funny really. Posting charts for Sunday and not Saturday.

Can't blame em. We're all a little guilty of IMBY'ism sometimes and there's a lot more of them

Lets hope the bloody thing stalls in the right place!

[andymusic]

Gotta be honest - GFS 06z is dire for Wales - always on the side of the warmer air the next 7 days - only one run - and according to some experts one of the worst! - let's hope that's the case!

Steve Murr from the model thread - PHEW!

Before people start stressing-

Its the 06z...

File it in the bin.The whole run from around 60

Edited February 3, 2012 by andymusic

[Gavla]

Gotta be honest - GFS 06z is dire for Wales - always on the side of the warmer air the next 7 days - only one run - and according to some experts one of the worst! - let's hope that's the case!

Steve Murr from the model thread - PHEW!

Before people start stressing-

Its the 06z...

File it in the bin.The whole run from around 60

if you have no optimism andy then nobody can give it to us noo !

[Ryan Macdonald]

i hope we have some snow here in blackwood,makes it even worse that the bloody english are havin it! plus i want to build another 10ft hitler in the front garden,people loved it last year,if i do make another one il upload pics

[kold weather]

NO models are that great for Wales away from maybe the far east and ground above 2-300M, so its not just the 06z but really a reflection of what is likely occur which is maybe a short hour burst of snow followed by heavy rain.

Anyway new thread here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72450-wales-cymru-regional-weather-discussion-part-4/

[mickeyflyn]

just watched the latest bbc forecast for tomorrow ans it saying wales will deffo get rain .midlands and south east england will get the snow with 4 inches around london area .

[chubbystuff]

just been to kids school with forgotten essential items car temp gauge showing -1 in sun and -2 in the shade what is tonights overnight temps going to be ????