South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[lfcdude]

meto now have me for sleet then rain.. Hmm

[AWD]

meto now have me for sleet then rain.. Hmm

Wouldnt be too worried, I dont think they would of took into account the 12z data yet! Also those forecasts change all the time

[snowmadchrisuk]

Wouldnt be too worried, I dont think they would of took into account the 12z data yet! Also those forecasts change all the time

Would love the GFS 18z to head towards the Euros though or the depression in the Model thread will no doubt start all over again .

[Jonesywilliteversnow]

"yes, the NAE and UK4/UKV handling will be interesting. MOGREPS probs of over 5cm are non-trivial for fair swathe of country." latest from Ian F on Twitter the important models will come into play tomorrow

Edited February 1, 2012 by Jonesywilliteversnow

[divadee]

Well my new sledge came today! I'm hoping it's a sign that it may get use at the weekend (well I can live in hope!)

[Lynxus]

From the model thread.. Worth a read.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/ding-ding-mild-air-cold-air/482

[AWD]

Would love the GFS 18z to head towards the Euros though or the depression in the Model thread will no doubt start all over again .

It probably wont knowing our luck, but I wont be making any swathe moves for whatever it shows. The 0z output will be important IMO, must keep the ECM scenario at least!

[divadee]

Wouldnt be too worried, I dont think they would of took into account the 12z data yet! Also those forecasts change all the time

I agree about them changing. Western channel are also guilty of this! I have had it change from rain to heavy snow and back again 4 times today for Saturday!!

[Paul T]

I would most certainly not worry about looking at specifics for snow or rain jsut yet, although the charts are nice for an indication.

The irony of this set up is that the South East contingent are getting very excited about the upgrades, rightly so, however further upgrades on cold and the block sticking firm = ppn pushed further West, and it may even miss the SE!

The question is, there is going to be a wedge/slice of the UK that has the correct temps + the ppn values to match. Earlier today this was the very south east, then its the midlands and south east...next up will be concerns about the ppn reaching the midlands and sitting out west...

Would like to see the GFS starting to come into line with ECM for the 18z but i don't expect much, it usually takes 2 or 3 runs to chance, if at all that is, it might be correct.

[khodds]

Seems like GFS is playing ball again! Only problem is, I'm now worrying that its not even going to make it to England... 3 days ago we were all go, then it progressed it over to the east, now its back tracking, is it possible it may not even cross our shores?!

[AWD]

Seems like GFS is playing ball again! Only problem is, I'm now worrying that its not even going to make it to England... 3 days ago we were all go, then it progressed it over to the east, now its back tracking, is it possible it may not even cross our shores?!

Yep, GFS 18z brings it all back west inline with the Euro's! Snow on this run for Eastern most Counties of our region, which is a big improvement on its 12z run

It is possible that the front may not even make it to our shores, but even more shifts westwards would still improve the situation for our region, bringing more of us in with a chance rather than just Eastern most Counties.

Hopefully it will stall over us! Lol!

[Frosty_wsm]

Not quite there with the 18z gfs in terms of shifting the battle ground enough west for most of our region to benefit but there's been a definete shift west by the models today that's for sure so I'm not concerned about the 18z at all, I'm looking at trends and they've certainly been good today for a shift west, hope the same theme continues tomorrow.

[AWD]

Not quite there with the 18z gfs in terms of shifting the battle ground enough west for most of our region to benefit but there's been a definete shift west by the models today that's for sure so I'm not concerned about the 18z at all, I'm looking at trends and they've certainly been good today for a shift west, hope the same theme continues tomorrow.

Yep, IF this trend westwards carries on for a few more runs we have a good chance of being in a good position for snowfall!

We are in a far better position than what we were in this morning, it wouldn't take much more of a shift west at all to give us decent snowfall!

I await the 0z with anticipation and hope!

[khodds]

Yep, GFS 18z brings it all back west inline with the Euro's! Snow on this run for Eastern most Counties of our region, which is a big improvement on its 12z run

It is possible that the front may not even make it to our shores, but even more shifts westwards would still improve the situation for our region, bringing more of us in with a chance rather than just Eastern most Counties.

Hopefully it will stall over us! Lol!

Thank you I bloomin hope so! Someone just commented that this has the look of a classic... and classics always tend to shift westwards...

[AWD]

GFS 18z actually as the front coming back over us as snow, being pushed back by the colder air!

Nothing mild on any model now for the foreseeable, things looking up for us!

[khodds]

YAY!!!!! Bring it on!

[Nights King]

GFS 18z actually as the front coming back over us as snow, being pushed back by the colder air!

Nothing mild on any model now for the foreseeable, things looking up for us!

The current trend is looking alot better but we shouldnt forget how much this has changed and may change for the worse or better yet so an air of caution is needed. which is why I shall save the ramping until friday myself.

Burnt once (sunday night) twice shy.

[westysweather]

hey guys, no chance of a repaet of february 1978 then, seems to me a novice that there are some simalarities, although more probably out of hope!?!?!?!?!?!

[Frosty_wsm]

Thank you I bloomin hope so! Someone just commented that this has the look of a classic... and classics always tend to shift westwards...

I've been waiting for a classic dump.........of snow for along time I still got photos of the Dec 81 snowfall where we had a foot of snowfall here at sea level! I've never seen snow that deep here since, not that i'm expecting that much snow even if we did get in on the snow action over the weekend, that's asking too much lol

[Frosty_wsm]

Burnt once (sunday night) twice shy.

Ah but we've got much colder air over us and at the surface than we had last sunday, things will be looking peachy if this westerly trend continues between now and the weekend.

[khodds]

I've been waiting for a classic dump.........of snow for along time I still got photos of the Dec 81 snowfall where we had a foot of snowfall here at sea level! I've never seen snow that deep here since, not that i'm expecting that much snow even if we did get in on the snow action over the weekend, that's asking too much lol

Ooh upload some piccys! A foot has just been mentioned on the model thread. It would be amazing *if* it happens..... Whatever happens I think the atlantic has lost this battle surely?!

[Nights King]

Ah but we've got much colder air over us and at the surface than we had last sunday, things will be looking peachy if this westerly trend continues between now and the weekend.

Yes your right there at least anything that falls as snow should have no problem laying down to sea level with such hard penetratibg frosts! By saturday the ground will be frozen a good few inches down up here. My chickens are enjoying their mud free field at moment even if they do have cold feet. I dont have to put my wellies on to sort them out every morning now

[Lynxus]

Oh I cant handle this anymore lol.

Models show massive amounts of snow to move over us and head east..

I know that its gonna move westwards as its never going to get as far east as it shows.. Hell, The snow/rain whatever could end up east of us and then move back again! Could end up with like 24hrs of heavy snow.

Can I just go to sleep now and wake up on saturday?

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Temp not dropping much because of the breeze, -2C

[Nights King]

Temp not dropping much because of the breeze, -2C

-2c with a breeze does alot more damage that a -8 without one! penetrates ground far more! This is kind of weather that does damage to tougher plants especially evergreen ones.

More damage the better I say as I can replace them all in the spring....at a price.