North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[kold weather]

Here is a new thread for the NW since the current one is getting a little long. Main talking point right now must surely be how the weekend's frontal system evolves.

[Liam J]

Starting to see the temperatures decrease now. Max today of 3.2c, currently 2,6c. Clear skies all the way.

[gareth73]

Liam's blog is interesting

[chiffer]

Sometimes I look at the weather on my iPhone and get depressed when there are no icons for snow then I realise dec 10 I had been predicted cloudy skies and got 10cm. I'm not optimistic at all haha

[HotCuppa]

I'm starting to ask myself if we're going to get below -1C tonight either?

It could easily get down below -5C tonight, -7C a possibility with -9C not out of reach, but the wind is blowing at 20mph at the moment, it's giving a significant wind chill yes, but when it's that strong, you're not going to go below freezing, even under clear skies with uppers of -20C.

Saturday has potential, keep an eye on the METARS and TAFS from the airports, and see what your mate thinks come Friday morning

Wind here isn't really that bad, lost some gust down to 8kph, may loose the wind entirely later tonight for sure. But then again it could become brisk again.

Absolutely crystal clear at the moment, wind chill is still sitting slightly below freezing -0.4C...dewpoint is well below freezing -3.7C although seeing it drop a little more.

Shame we have absolutely zero moisture around, and that wind may pick up again but not entirely sure about it.

Tonight and through to Friday Morning

Rest of today and tonight: mostly clear though scattered clouds at times. Max temperature 4C, but with windchill making it feel like -2C. Overnight tonight becoming clear, though we may see occasional scattered clouds at times, a low of -6C with windchill -9C.

Thursday a max temperature of 1C with scattered clouds at times, mostly clear, humidity 80% and a dew point of -2C. Wind from the east at 10KPH making it feel like -1C with windchill. Overnight Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a low of -7C winds from the SSE at 4KPH Humidity at 100% with a dew point of -7C and windchill will make it feel like -9C

Friday morning will start clear and sunny with a top temp of 2C, dew point 2C Wind SSW at 16KPH Humidity 100% windchill will make it feel like -3C.

Transistion from Friday night through saturday morning could see frontal snow, as overnight temps are expected to fall to around -7C with the dewpoint at -7C...he said complex situation, could see snow saturday morning, but it may well turn to rain and temps recovering to 6 or even 7C subject to change at short notice..complex situation

[toggerob]

I would imagine right about now (4.10pm) the winds will start to slacken off as thermal gradients start to diminish and the frost starts setting in, albeit little sign of it given the lack of moisture around. Temps will plummet to -7'c in rural areas possibly lower with a 850hpa -11'c tongue over the UK right now. But don't expect to be waking up to a covering of rime-frost as only water will be frozen over, air temps will be a direct impact of the cold than moisture contented frost.

I await 6am with baited breath..as so far this is going to be the coldest temps (here at least) of the 11/12 winter season.

[chris78]

I know from the uncertain situation that my question may be unanswerable, but ill ask anyway......

I am organising the planting of a community orchard in Preston this Saturday, due to start 10;30....now a light ground frost is ok ...we can scrape of the frost and plant the trees...however a deep frost is another matter, for example today would have been a no go, even though it was 3c by 10am the ground was pretty solid......now it seems that Friday to Saturday could see milder air.......Id like a few opinions, how do you rate my chances of the ground being relatively thawed by 11 am Saturday?

I know most of you are rooting for it to still be cold (i have mixed feelings) but please try to be unbiased.

Thanks in advance

Chris

Edited February 1, 2012 by chris78

[gareth73]

Dropping away now here 1.1c as the sun gows down the wind will drop out so we will see our first big frost for the winter, better late than never.

[Liam J]

Down to 0.2c now, feeling bitterly cold.

[Backtrack]

I know from the uncertain situation that my question may be unanswerable, but ill ask anyway......

I am organising the planting of a community orchard in Preston this Saturday, due to start 10;30....now a light ground frost is ok ...we can scrape of the frost and plant the trees...however a deep frost is another matter, for example today would have been a no go, even though it was 3c by 10am the ground was pretty solid......now it seems that Friday to Saturday could see milder air.......Id like a few opinions, how do you rate my chances of the ground being relatively thawed by 11 am Saturday?

I know most of you are rooting for it to still be cold (i have mixed feelings) but please try to be unbiased.

Thanks in advance

Chris

Absolutely no chance in hell.

Even if it rains the ground will be frozen. Not to mention there's going to be some leading edge snowfall as a minimum.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Backtrack

[Backtrack]

Air temperature is 1.9C with a dewpoint of -5.2C!!! :o

[chris78]

Absolutely no chance in hell.

The GFS says ground temperatures will be -6C. Not to mention there's going to be some leading edge snowfall as a minimum.

Cheers BT.....do others agree? still think i may leave cancelling till friday....?

[cfallon]

Backtrack whats your take on this weekends events?

[Backtrack]

Cheers BT.....do others agree? still think i may leave cancelling till friday....?

Leave it until Friday definitely.

Upon viewing the 12z, there's a major difference, check this out:

This is the 06z

This is the 12z

The 0-10cm soil temps, however, are still below 0C:

Leave it until Friday, but the soil will probably still be rock hard.

[Backtrack]

Backtrack whats your take on this weekends events?

I did a detailed post, but the 12z has gone completely against anything I've seen.

I'm going to wait before making my judgements, but if the 12z is correct (Not likely) then we're not going to be getting any snow at all.

[Lancashire Lass]

I know from the uncertain situation that my question may be unanswerable, but ill ask anyway......

I am organising the planting of a community orchard in Preston this Saturday, due to start 10;30....now a light ground frost is ok ...we can scrape of the frost and plant the trees...however a deep frost is another matter, for example today would have been a no go, even though it was 3c by 10am the ground was pretty solid......now it seems that Friday to Saturday could see milder air.......Id like a few opinions, how do you rate my chances of the ground being relatively thawed by 11 am Saturday?

I know most of you are rooting for it to still be cold (i have mixed feelings) but please try to be unbiased.

Thanks in advance

Chris

I think the ground is still going to be pretty hard so you'll struggle to dig the soil.

[Backtrack]

Wind here isn't really that bad, lost some gust down to 8kph, may loose the wind entirely later tonight for sure. But then again it could become brisk again.

Absolutely crystal clear at the moment, wind chill is still sitting slightly below freezing -0.4C...dewpoint is well below freezing -3.7C although seeing it drop a little more.

Shame we have absolutely zero moisture around, and that wind may pick up again but not entirely sure about it.

Tonight and through to Friday Morning

Rest of today and tonight: mostly clear though scattered clouds at times. Max temperature 4C, but with windchill making it feel like -2C. Overnight tonight becoming clear, though we may see occasional scattered clouds at times, a low of -6C with windchill -9C.

Thursday a max temperature of 1C with scattered clouds at times, mostly clear, humidity 80% and a dew point of -2C. Wind from the east at 10KPH making it feel like -1C with windchill. Overnight Becoming partly to mostly cloudy with a low of -7C winds from the SSE at 4KPH Humidity at 100% with a dew point of -7C and windchill will make it feel like -9C

Friday morning will start clear and sunny with a top temp of 2C, dew point 2C Wind SSW at 16KPH Humidity 100% windchill will make it feel like -3C.

Transistion from Friday night through saturday morning could see frontal snow, as overnight temps are expected to fall to around -7C with the dewpoint at -7C...he said complex situation, could see snow saturday morning, but it may well turn to rain and temps recovering to 6 or even 7C subject to change at short notice..complex situation

We've still got an annoying 3-6mph breeze that's keeping the temperatures up.

It's 1.7C now, dropping at -1.3C P/H

[Lancashire Lass]

Currently 1.7c, dewpoint -4.7c

[gareth73]

Yep vey quickly at 0c so I guess it will drop steadily now

[James M]

I don't know whether it's because the air is quite dry or whatnot, but it feels way colder than it is here. Very bracing walking to the post office it was lol :cold:

[Backtrack]

STILL breezy here, up to 10mph at times.

I hope I don't get a repeat of last night, or I will be VERY annoyed.

It needs to go away now, or I won't go below 0C...

I don't know whether it's because the air is quite dry or whatnot, but it feels way colder than it is here. Very bracing walking to the post office it was lol :cold:

Yes, same here. Dewpoint is now -4.9C! No wonder it's feeling colder than what it is.

0.0C was reached last night at 9:14pm, we're currently sat on 1.3C at 5:30pm, let's beat it.

[gareth73]

I don't believe it!!! The breeze is knocking the temp about now temp gone up to 0.5c

[The snowman]

I have a hockey match on sat morn at ten am in Bootle -what's the latest on the snow risk for the Bootle area for sat morn (want to know whether to set my alarm or just curl up under the duvet instead (if it's called off!)

[dodge]

I'd rather skip the slush fest on Saturday and go straight to rain. That's what the 12z is offering us. Might be signs that the easterly could return later on though. The 'snow' headlines might be made over on the continent this weekend.

Edited February 1, 2012 by dodgeredee

[The Northern Ramper]

I am going to have to stop reading the model thread as the south east bias is driving me potty.

And when i posted a genuine question regarding the 12z asking people to explain why it is an upgrade (what am i missing) when the lowest upper is 0 by 9pm on Saturday it gets moved to the model banter thread where nobody answers.

Annoyed

Edited February 1, 2012 by Snow Guy