North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[jpwild]

I am on my mum's laptop and just found a load of pictures on the laptop from the snowevent of 2/3 years ago and wow brings back memories.

Question: What weather will follow the band of snow on SUnday morning? WIll it be cloudy, party cloudy or blue sky?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

It will still be rain on the coast of cumbria, it always is.

[damianslaw]

It will still be rain on the coast of cumbria, it always is.

Uppers will be conducive for snow everywhere as the front hits, but the question will be how prolonged will the snow become? - far too early to call at this stage, the models won't get a handle on the front until it hits our shores and developments in the next 48 hours will have a major bearing on the final outcome.

As for it never snowing on the coast - look back at the events of Feb 5/6th 96, St Bees recorded copious amounts of snow as the front stalled over the region.

The perfect sceanrio for long lasting snow is for a stronger injection of heights to our east with a light SE feed forcing the front to align more on a NW-SE axis and stalling in situ over the west of the country.

I'll be surprised if come Sunday most of us are saying we never managed at least a temporary cover of snow. Places with altitude obviously will do much better and the lakeland fells will get a real pasting.

Longer term - those heights to our east won't be easily eroding, I suspect they will fight back early next week with pressure building over the country these eventually retrogressing NW in time thanks to scandi trough development sometime before mid month - enabling a bitter northerly/northeasterly airstream to envelop us.

Tonight -6 degrees already in Shap.

[snowdrifter]

Hello friends, not been on a lot this season but with all the 'will-it-won't-it' around at the moment, couldn't resist having a read of the friendly regional NW thread. I've been so hoping that this w/e would mirror the 6th Feb 1996 when we had the most memorable battleground scenario in 'recent' times (for the west anyway) Looks like Blackpool won't be cut off this time! Good luck to anyone further east of the region - expecting wet snow this far west.

Just as reminder of the chart from '96 -

[snowdrifter]

Uppers will be conducive for snow everywhere as the front hits, but the question will be how prolonged will the snow become? - far too early to call at this stage, the models won't get a handle on the front until it hits our shores and developments in the next 48 hours will have a major bearing on the final outcome.

As for it never snowing on the coast - look back at the events of Feb 5/6th 96, St Bees recorded copious amounts of snow as the front stalled over the region.

The perfect sceanrio for long lasting snow is for a stronger injection of heights to our east with a light SE feed forcing the front to align more on a NW-SE axis and stalling in situ over the west of the country.

I'll be surprised if come Sunday most of us are saying we never managed at least a temporary cover of snow. Places with altitude obviously will do much better and the lakeland fells will get a real pasting.

Longer term - those heights to our east won't be easily eroding, I suspect they will fight back early next week with pressure building over the country these eventually retrogressing NW in time thanks to scandi trough development sometime before mid month - enabling a bitter northerly/northeasterly airstream to envelop us.

Tonight -6 degrees already in Shap.

Hi D, saw your post just after I posted the '96 chart!! Don't think the front was expected to stall then, so goes to show anything might happen in this setup.

Edited February 1, 2012 by snowdrifter

[Snowmad79]

Hello friends, not been on a lot this season but with all the 'will-it-won't-it' around at the moment, couldn't resist having a read of the friendly regional NW thread. I've been so hoping that this w/e would mirror the 6th Feb 1996 when we had the most memorable battleground scenario in 'recent' times (for the west anyway) Looks like Blackpool won't be cut off this time! Good luck to anyone further east of the region - expecting wet snow this far west.

Just as reminder of the chart from '96 -

Wow someone still actually has the NW signature pic I made last winter before Backtrack took over with a new one lol

[snowdrifter]

Wow someone still actually has the NW signature pic I made last winter before Backtrack took over with a new one lol

Makes me feel like 'so yesterday' SM!

[cfallon]

Harsh climate has just posted that he predicts anywhere west of the Pennines will see NO SNOW!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

my temp and dp has risen 2c in 20minutes

[NickyB]

Harsh climate has just posted that he predicts anywhere west of the Pennines will see NO SNOW!

Boo hiss ;-(

[Backtrack]

Wow someone still actually has the NW signature pic I made last winter before Backtrack took over with a new one lol

:rofl: :rofl:

I tried to take over, but I got stopped by an admin when the member list was at 7 people.

[Lancashire Lass]

Hello friends, not been on a lot this season but with all the 'will-it-won't-it' around at the moment, couldn't resist having a read of the friendly regional NW thread. I've been so hoping that this w/e would mirror the 6th Feb 1996 when we had the most memorable battleground scenario in 'recent' times (for the west anyway) Looks like Blackpool won't be cut off this time! Good luck to anyone further east of the region - expecting wet snow this far west.

Just as reminder of the chart from '96 -

Long time no see! Great to see you back!

[Backtrack]

Lots of cloud coming in from the NE judging by the satellite. You can probably wave good bye to your frosts now.

[snowdrifter]

Long time no see! Great to see you back!

Cheers LL. Let's hope west Lancs get's at least 10 mins of snow this w/e

[dodge]

-3c finally temps are on the tumble, it was zero this time last night -

[Backtrack]

Harsh climate has just posted that he predicts anywhere west of the Pennines will see NO SNOW!

Well he will be eating his words come Saturday, clearly should have gone to Speccsavers. Didn't look at the ECM.

[Martin M]

Looks to me that the 18z has fallen into line with the other models, at least in the short term.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012020118-2-72.png?18 Snow from the Border regions down.

For now its all systems go for snow *touch wood*

Didn't expect the 18z to make the jump over tonight as I find that the 18z is usually the 12z output but on steroids.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Lots of cloud coming in from the NE judging by the satellite. You can probably wave good bye to your frosts now.

that explains the jump in temp and dp

Well he will be eating his words come Saturday, clearly should have gone to Speccsavers. Didn't look at the ECM.

netweathers ecm is diff to the french one

[Backtrack]

We've been stuck between -0.7C and -0.8C for an hour. I hate this. It really annoys me.

that explains the jump in temp and dp

netweathers ecm is diff to the french one

No it's not, it's just differently colour coded.

The cloud won't be here for another hour if it can makes the Pennines. Your temp won't have risen 2C, it's wrong. Use my station.

[swainclubber]

Looks to me that the 18z has fallen into line with the other models, at least in the short term.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012020118-2-72.png?18 Snow from the Border regions down.

For now its all systems go for snow *touch wood*

Didn't expect the 18z to make the jump over tonight as I find that the 18z is usually the 12z output but on steroids.

on my phone so can't check but is it set to stall or still a snow to rain event on the 18 z. cheers

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

We've been stuck between -0.7C and -0.8C for an hour. I hate this. It really annoys me.

No it's not, it's just differently colour coded.

The cloud won't be here for another hour if it can makes the Pennines. Your temp won't have risen 2C, it's wrong. Use my station.

my temp and dp jumped 2c in 20 mins

look at the graph

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IMERSEYS8

[Backtrack]

my temp and dp jumped 2c in 20 mins

look at the graph

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=IMERSEYS8

Doesn't seem right to me. Discard that station, seems faulty.

Actually, if you check the history, there's no jump in temperature, the graph is just wrong.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Doesn't seem right to me. Discard that station, seems faulty.

Actually, if you check the history, there's no jump in temperature, the graph is just wrong.

yeah but the temp read -2.4 before i saw it.

[Martin M]

on my phone so can't check but is it set to stall or still a snow to rain event on the 18 z. cheers

Its not as good as the ECM was, but its a very big improvement. It makes it east of the Pennines and into East Anglia and then stall, unfortunately turning back to rain near the coast for us in the north west still, but alot later than it did on the 12z. Eastern side of our region on this run would probably stay as snow though. But now its grasped the trend I expect it to trend westwards overtime.

But now I've looked at netweather Precip type charts and its alot more marginal. Now I dont know which one to believe lol.

Edited February 1, 2012 by Martin M

[swainclubber]

Its not as good as the ECM was, but its a very big improvement. It makes it east of the Pennines and into East Anglia and then stall, unfortunately turning back to rain near the coast for us in the north west still, but alot later than it did on the 12z. Eastern side of our region on this run would probably stay as snow though. But now its grasped the trend I expect it to trend westwards overtime.

But now I've looked at netweather Precip type charts and its alot more marginal. Now I dont know which one to believe lol.

some progress at least. and for early next week? thanks for that bud