North West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[cfallon]

Check this more se bias in the discussion forum;

That should say "No chance of the Atlantic strolling through to the EAST COAST on this run". Remember this is a mainly central and south eastern england event. The north west will be under much milder air with rain throughout with perhaps a little marginal snowfall as the warm front pushes through.

Awesome charts for the south east though.

[Lancashire Lass]

Boo hiss ;-(

Haha it's like a pantomine. 'oh no it isn't' *Grabs rotten cabbages*

[Martin M]

some progress at least. and for early next week? thanks for that bud

Not too sure for early next week, from the overall mood in the model thread it seems to be trending west so more in line with the others. Never really look at the 18z in much detail past 72hrs as it usually always goes off on one, as we all know.

Backtrack I saw you post about the differences between netweathers charts and other sites, I think the precip charts are different too. Very strange

[swainclubber]

Not too sure for early next week, from the overall mood in the model thread it seems to be trending west so more in line with the others. Never really look at the 18z in much detail past 72hrs as it usually always goes off on one, as we all know.

Backtrack I saw you post about the differences between netweathers charts and other sites, I think the precip charts are different too. Very strange

thanks again. appreciated.

[Backtrack]

Check this more se bias in the discussion forum;

Rain for the NW? Don't make me laugh. A frontal event under uppers of -7C producing rain? Fool.

Anyway, it's becoming clear that we may need a shift Westward in the front, which is becoming very likely. We could hit the jackpot.

Wind now died down, -1.3C

Not too sure for early next week, from the overall mood in the model thread it seems to be trending west so more in line with the others. Never really look at the 18z in much detail past 72hrs as it usually always goes off on one, as we all know.

Backtrack I saw you post about the differences between netweathers charts and other sites, I think the precip charts are different too. Very strange

I might PM Paul if no one answers me,

Edited February 1, 2012 by Backtrack

[Simon_]

Just watched the local and national weather on the BBC, they both seem to be hinting that for us in the NW, it's looking like a bit of a non event and that they are more concerned that any disruptive snow will be confined to the SE

[Snow free zone]

Squeaky bum time for us in the NW

GFS falling into line with the euro models, but at the moment it is still marginal for most away from the hills and the more eastern parts of the region. the trend though is for this to be pushed further and further west with time. There is plenty of time for change, if the trend continues the colder air will remain over us all.

What no one has said yet is that the precipitation could not get here at all as last weekend ?

[dodge]

BBC has sleet over me on Saturday, also known as 'sitting on the fence' lol Actually they may be right, it could turn to sleet/wet snow by the time it's through, unless we get a westwards shift and more of a battleground situation.

[Backtrack]

Squeaky bum time for us in the NW

GFS falling into line with the euro models, but at the moment it is still marginal for most away from the hills and the more eastern parts of the region. the trend though is for this to be pushed further and further west with time. There is plenty of time for change, if the trend continues the colder air will remain over us all.

What no one has said yet is that the precipitation could not get here at all as last weekend ?

Nah, the Atlantic has more steam behind this front, and the Russian block will struggle to hold this one back for long. It'll get here, but what it produces is still unknown.

[swainclubber]

Squeaky bum time for us in the NW

GFS falling into line with the euro models, but at the moment it is still marginal for most away from the hills and the more eastern parts of the region. the trend though is for this to be pushed further and further west with time. There is plenty of time for change, if the trend continues the colder air will remain over us all.

What no one has said yet is that the precipitation could not get here at all as last weekend ?

ha yeah I was imagining the same earlier regards it being like last weekend. really hope not.

[Martin M]

BBC has sleet over me on Saturday, also known as 'sitting on the fence' lol Actually they may be right, it could turn to sleet/wet snow by the time it's through, unless we get a westwards shift and more of a battleground situation.

Knowing the NW's luck with snow it will trend that far west now, it will stop over Ireland haha.

I might PM Paul if no one answers me,

Ok, might be just how each website is programmed. Surely all sites dont have differing data?

[Backtrack]

Knowing the NW's luck with snow it will trend that far west now, it will stop over Ireland haha.

Ok, might be just how each website is programmed. Surely all sites dont have differing data?

ECM has data input like any other model, I don't think Net Weather change it? Well no, they can't?

[Thunder Snow]

I'm sick of this forum over the last few nights, anything u say in the model thread is deleted. I posted some preci charts showing it was gonna be a non event apart from the south east. Can you confirm it was deleted

[Snow free zone]

The trend is for a Westward movement. Get everything crossed and we'll see what happens tomorrow.

[Backtrack]

I'm sick of this forum over the last few nights, anything u say in the model thread is deleted. I posted some preci charts showing it was gonna be a non event apart from the south east. Can you confirm it was deleted

It was deleted, but it was deleted because it wasn't true.

It's far from a non event away from the SE.

[Liam J]

Sitting at -2.7c here, dew point -5.3c.

Although it may be hard try not to get over excited over the weekends potential snowfest. This is a finely balanced situation developing and a tip slightly the wrong direction would end in tears for us in the NW. The positive aspect is the new trend from the models to stall the front further west and keeping the cold air in situ over the region.

To many factors and variables to mention, all we can do is hope and pray for everything to set up perfectly over the next few days of model watching.

It would nearly be 16 years to the day since the Feb 1996 event buried Cumbria, stranding me at school for two nights! Also villages completely cut off on the west coast had to have food supplies dropped off by life boats.

This can't happen again...

Edited February 1, 2012 by Liam J

[Backtrack]

Sitting at -2.7c here, dew point -5.3c.

Although it may be hard try not to get over excited the weekends potential snowfest. This is a finely balanced situation developing and a tip slightly the wrong direction would end in tears for us in the NW. The positive aspect is the new trend from the models to stall the front further west and keeping the cold air in situ over the region.

To many factors and variables to mention, all we can do is hope and pray for everything to set up perfectly over the next few days of model watching.

It would nearly be 16 years to the day since the Feb 1996 buried Cumbria, stranding me at school for two nights! Also villages completely cut off on the west coast had to have food supplies dropped off by life boats.

This can't happen again...

At the minute I'm not excited.

If the GFS is true, we'd get fu*k all as usual.

If the ECM is right, we'll be plastered.

Usually in these situations the worst scenario always comes into play, so I'm going to probably back the GFS. Even a Westward shift in the front wouldn't be enough. It would have to be a MASSIVE shift Westwards to give us anything wintry.

-1.8C here. DP -5.3C.

[snowdrifter]

It would nearly be 16 years to the day since the Feb 1996 buried Cumbria, stranding me at school for two nights! Also villages completely cut off on the west coast had to have food supplies dropped off by life boats.

This can't happen again...

Dont!

[Backtrack]

Now -2.0C. Yikes!

[Thunder Snow]

Thats not what the Precip charts it's looking good for some central areas and the south to south east, but I'm not convinced. Also I was asking a question and not making a statement so it can't have been deleted for not being true

[toggerob]

I think they want to keep the model thread as such, with 'discussion' going into general talk. Obviously there is general disagreement short term into the model outputs but many new members may end up misconstruing the popularity of the model chat into nowcasting than using the subforums.

Netherless in Buxton DPs down to -19.5'c outside and the night sky is as clear as you are ever going to see it in the UK, within a dark-sky location at least.

[cfallon]

At the minute I'm not excited.

If the GFS is true, we'd get fu*k all as usual.

If the ECM is right, we'll be plastered.

Usually in these situations the worst scenario always comes into play, so I'm going to probably back the GFS. Even a Westward shift in the front wouldn't be enough. It would have to be a MASSIVE shift Westwards to give us anything wintry.

-1.8C here. DP -5.3C.

Oi you promised snow! Why such the sudden change of heart?

I feel confident of at least couple of inches!

[Backtrack]

Oi you promised snow! Why such the sudden change of heart?

I feel confident of at least couple of inches!

Because everyone else in the model thread has gone with the opposite of what I think. :lol:

[cfallon]

Because everyone else in the model thread has gone with the opposite of what I think. :lol:

Yeah but they are all biased se softies! Lol

On serious note if it shifts west like many think then surely that's better for us?

[Backtrack]

Yes, a shift W would be better for us.

True, everyone on here is a Southerner :lol: