London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

[Jo S]

each mm of PPN that falls...Is about approx 1CM of snow

Oh i see thankyou

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oh i see thankyou

Like for a like? HAHA no probs

Just got to hope the front reaches us - can you imagine the disapointment waking up Sunday morning, pulling the curtains back and it being bone dry?

Doesn't bear thinking about actually!

I don't think may of us will be sleeping saturday night..LOL

[Guest QuantumSnow]

Now im confused,with this and what i just saw on bbc

Hi Snow jo

That link you posted is the rainfall totals prediction, that is, the amount of actual precip were it just water, and not taking into account snowfall. If you click on the 'will it snow' link instead then you should see it change to a snowfall prediction in % probability based on the GFS 06z.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=wisi;

Hope that makes sense

[Roger J Smith]

http://www.eurometeo...RKAMER-homepage

How much for Norfolk?

Anyway, check out that link for radar and click on it to animate and enlarge, any parallel bands that may form further south could be heading in to northeast Kent by about 4 to 6 p.m. and could then become heavy at times. GFS 06z giving better indications for mesoscale low development on Friday, merging with frontal bands Saturday.

I will stick with my concept of scattered 10-20 cm amounts from streamers then more widespread 5-15 cm amounts from merged mesoscale and frontal bands.

Air is dry at present due to subsidence but should be more and more favourable as deeper cold air aloft combines with end of daylight heating to chill the column, r.h. should rise rapidly as cloud over North Sea advects southwest ... could be an explosive situation ... gradient seems fine, winds plenty strong despite feeble appearance of gradient on maps.

Good luck, I'll find out how it's working out today when I next log into the forum about 18z. (0400 here).

Edited February 2, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[tonbridgemole]

Temp 1.2c

Dew point -6.0

Wind NE 12 mph

Wind chill -4.0

[GoonerGregg77]

I'm wondering if central and western areas of the UK will see the copious amounts of rain and snow. I think the precipitation band will stall centrally, and give us showers in the East & SE at first, then general sleet and snow overnight, albeit weakening as it reaches us.

The Russian high will still have it's grip on us, but that will be our downfall maybe? I hope I'm wrong, but this uncertainty gives me good enough reasons to believe this may be the case. We will see snow, but maybe not as much as currently forecast.

[FetchCB]

Just watched the forecast on the BBC website...unequivocally snow not turning to rain heavy and disruptive.

my fear....I have recollection of such an event back in the early 90's I was in Twickenham and the front got to within 20 miles of us. It was snowing heavily in Slough but virtually nothing in Twickenham

[SMU]

looking at how cold and dry the air is if we stay on the eastern end of the front we could see conversion rates of 1mm rain to 1.5cm of snow.

Only 10mm req for 6 inches of snow.

s

[Team Jo]

Got to laugh really. All the people at work here now have cottoned on to the possibility of snow this weekend and are asking me why I hadn't said anything earlier this week?

I've been bitten in the bum too many times before letting people know what may be coming and now I'm getting hassled for not pre warning them!!!!!

Coast, I feel your Pain! OH is a Teacher and when there was a small sniff of snow about three weeks ago, he told colleagues, who then told the kids, who have been expecting a snow day since. I've kept schtum this week, and then came into work this morning to discover that we have a 'Snow Plan' in place. My boss said he was surprised I wasn't more involved as I usually am the first to start hyping!

Can't win!!!!

Also, is anyone else getting quite gusty winds this morning? The conservatory has been rattling... not easterly facing either....

[Paul Sherman]

I am just trying to get across how these synoptics are like the old skool and not like the 1cm of Snow and all Melted by Lunchtime jobbies we had to put up with from 1996 - 2006

Take a look at the below and see how long it takes in these types of Synoptics

Ok another Blocked Month with a similar evolution to what we are seeing now is December 1961. Again a mixture or Scandi and Russian High came across the Country, it took a full 16 yes 16 days before the Snowfall arrived, have attached the weather notes from my Book for you to read about (Remember this was not the famous 62/63 winter but the one preceding it.

- Scandi High

- The Breakdown

The Notes on This

As the Scandinavian/north Russian high pressure extended westwards from the 14th, the weather became progressively colder: 18th: Onset of period of SEVERE FROSTS lasting till early January 1962. Skating began in the south on 25th. The Christmas period was one of the COLDEST on record. TEMPERATURES fell to 12degF (converts to around minus 11degC) at Eskdalemuir on Christmas Day morning, and to 9 degF (converts to around minus 13degC) at Edinburgh on the morning of the 27th. On the 28th, TEMPERATURES remained sub-zero in many places.

2. Rain, preceded by SLEET & SNOW over southern England on the 29th, and SNOW was widespread in the Midlands and the North. On the last day of the year, there was HEAVY SNOWFALL in southern and central England, level snow extensively over 1 foot (30 cm) deep.

[Jo S]

Hi Snow jo

That link you posted is the rainfall totals prediction, that is, the amount of actual precip were it just water, and not taking into account snowfall. If you click on the 'will it snow' link instead then you should see it change to a snowfall prediction in % probability based on the GFS 06z.

http://www.netweathe...gi?action=wisi;

Hope that makes sense

Thank you im learning very slowly on here,its my brains,its all quite deep stuff this ti a newbie,plus geography isnt my strong point,good job i dont drive id get lost going around a roundabout. :wacko:

[Jimmyh]

what do we expect the met offcie update to be. Last one 0229 this morning

[Coast]

Just got to hope the front reaches us - can you imagine the disapointment waking up Sunday morning, pulling the curtains back and it being bone dry?

Don't you worry SR, Sunday morning for many people will look like this when they open the curtains:

[Marie]

Don't you worry SR, Sunday morning for many people will look like this when they open the curtains:

I hope your right Coast,lots of dissapointed faces if it doesnt come off lol

[titchjuicy]

bbc london's latest video forecast (updated online at 11:59 this morning) reporting sleet and quite warm on sunday, with perhaps a light dusting sat eve.

Have they really got it that wrong?

[snowking]

looking at how cold and dry the air is if we stay on the eastern end of the front we could see conversion rates of 1mm rain to 1.5cm of snow.

Only 10mm req for 6 inches of snow.

s

Steve is there any recognised formula/conversion for this using mm precip and dews/t2m's?

I had always (obviously falsely) assumed that higher dew points would lead to a higher mm rain - cm snow conversion

Kind Regards

Sk

[Coast]

I hope your right Coast,lots of dissapointed faces if it doesnt come off lol

And I'll be conveniently absent for a while!!!!

[PureOcean]

Coast, I feel your Pain! OH is a Teacher and when there was a small sniff of snow about three weeks ago, he told colleagues, who then told the kids, who have been expecting a snow day since. I've kept schtum this week, and then came into work this morning to discover that we have a 'Snow Plan' in place. My boss said he was surprised I wasn't more involved as I usually am the first to start hyping!

Can't win!!!!

Also, is anyone else getting quite gusty winds this morning? The conservatory has been rattling... not easterly facing either....

Yep here at Whitstable we are getting some gusts.

[snowking]

bbc london's latest video forecast (updated online at 11:59 this morning) reporting sleet and quite warm on sunday, with perhaps a light dusting sat eve.

Have they really got it that wrong?

What she actually says is a dusting of snow during saturday evening (presumably risk of the frontal system moving in from the north sea) with more overnight, turning to sleet during the day on sunday

But you could tell there was still a lot of uncertainty from the way she worded things

SK

Edited February 2, 2012 by snowking

[SMU]

just to reiterate

Ignore the tv forecasts and met warnings all they will do is confuse people on here...

Sk.

There is no firm conversion rate, however rule of thumb wet snow from the north in arctic air mass with average DALR is around 1:7

with any maritime westerly influence you can knock that down to 1:5.

NE flows if the airs cold enough 1:8-1:10.

Continental air mass snow, up to 1:15. However because ours is mixed I would stick to about 1:12.

If we take an average warm front drops 2-6 then the average across the piste for the se would be

~2.5cm to 7.5cm

if the front stalls out then we may get to 10mm .... 12cm.

15 over the hills......

Regards

s

[Coast]

The weekends fate is now sealed for me!

An ice cream van has just turned up on our Industrial Estate to dispense 99's!!! Didn't even do that last Summer.... Incredible!!!

[snowking]

just to reiterate

Ignore the tv forecasts and met warnings all they will do is confuse people on here...

Sk.

There is no firm conversion rate, however rule of thumb wet snow from the north in arctic air mass with average DALR is around 1:7

with any maritime westerly influence you can knock that down to 1:5.

NE flows if the airs cold enough 1:8-1:10.

Continental air mass snow, up to 1:15. However because ours is mixed I would stick to about 1:12.

If we take an average warm front drops 2-6 then the average across the piste for the se would be

~2.5cm to 7.5cm

if the front stalls out then we may get to 10mm .... 12cm.

15 over the hills......

Regards

s

Very useful to know, thanks for that steve

SK

[Marie]

I like the snow map that TEITS has drawn over on the MOD thread,gives you an idea of where he thinks is a good location for snow on sat

[PureOcean]

Its best to stay focused on the various sites and information, I would really take the weather on TV etc... with a pinch of salt at this moment, its out of date often before its broadcast and furthermore, the majority of information they are using is available to you all via this site and others. This is the fun time of year if you like cool weather events and time to test your skills a little, just use the TV to assist you, its often a great bonus if you get it right and they get it wrong... which is the majority of the time due to your local knowledge of your own area and micro-climates. This forum I think helps many new people too, some great hints and advice being given by all. Best plan be patient, and just prepare yourself. Have fun!

[blackprince]

The weekends fate is now sealed for me!

An ice cream van has just turned up on our Industrial Estate to dispense 99's!!! Didn't even do that last Summer.... Incredible!!!

Must be owned by the METO