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Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Its safe to say saturday night is going to be a late one for me.

Good thing is we should see the snow arrive between 6-9pm.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Along with all the Netweather stuff, I use these guys as they have been pretty consistent for the last couple of years in the 2 to 3 day beforehand period:

http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk

I've never seen an orange (heavy) area for the South before and this is very encouraging:

post-6667-0-83327600-1328258819_thumb.jp

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 0am GMT

post-6667-0-12032600-1328258826_thumb.jp

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Sun 05 Feb at 6am GMT

rainandsnowscale.metric.gif

Pull back the curtains Sunday morning and be prepared to be delighted!!!

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted (edited)

Carol had it turning to rain areas west of leicester roughly, very much on the edge where i am, lets hope we get a slight shift west to give more of us at least something to wake upto sunday.

I find it highly annoying when they say if you want to find out more head to the website, you go on there and the latest forecast was uploaded at 12:32 yesterday which in situations like this is very much out of date

Edited by SnowTornado
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i luv snow Enthusiast

i luv snow

Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
Posted (edited)

People keep talking about a shift west with the ppn but we have seen no such thing in the models so far - consistently showing East Midlands AND EA and SE pasted, every run in the past 24 hours has shown a long period of snow across the whole SE with heavier snow at first but then a more sustained period of lighter snow - with no sign of front stalling further west. So very exciting times imo!

Of course it will be a case of nowcasting once the front moves in, and seeing where it stalls etc, potential for a touch further west but not drastically so imo.

Edited by i luv snow
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NorthNorfolkWeather Aficionado

NorthNorfolkWeather

Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
Posted

BBC local forecast for the east saying 5-10 cm in most areas possibly more in some places Sat night into Sunday morning, latest model runs going with cold air winning out next week here in the east with mild Atlantic air being held to our west.

I must admit I think they are programming it too far East.

I'd be more than a little surprised if this part of Norfolk got much. Hope I'm wrong

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

A complete hunch but I get the feeling it is going to come in slower than forecast. Probably wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a twist to this.

Wouldn't be too much of a shock. Despite the models holding firm IF it is going to go differently than the models expect this is how it will happen.

It may not be a bad thing as it'll probably help more areas to keep snow. Simply put the longer the front comes in the greater the chance of central areas keeping snow...I think the west will struggle given the timings even if there is a delay.

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Zakos Community Regular

Zakos

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough
Posted

Good thing is we should see the snow arrive between 6-9pm.

. Ah im at work till 9.30pm! I think ill call in sick tomorrow, for a day of radar watching and lampost staring :D yes we both look great for this snow event
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

For you guys who have Netweather Extra, the NMM noiw goes out to 48hrs on the 00z run!

So take a look!

Anyway the conclusion from it is a great snowfall event for central and eastern areas, further west more of a snow-rain event but some places, especially on higher ground could keep snow right till the back edge.

GREAT run though for most!

My journey home from work would be interesting if the NMM was right, snoew would be just starting!

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

Straw clutch coming up...

The METO forecast for here last night was temp of -5, the actual temp was -9.5. Will this under estimation of temps have any impact on the incoming snow and give us in the West more hope of seeing/keeping snow rather than it turning to rain?

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Here's the precipitation, this can't fall as rain in these temps surely?

gfs_prec_eur51.png

Bit of convection going on?

gfs_lfc_eur51.png

gfs_lapse2_eur51.png

gfs_stp_eur51.png

gfs_srh_eur51.png

Looking good!

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Just had a look at the GFS.

This shows it getting a bit marginal for a few hours in my location around 4am-ish (Purley, Surrey).

Should this still stay as snow? Would I be right in thinking that I am in one of the "sweet spots"?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Just had a look at the GFS.

This shows it getting a bit marginal for a few hours in my location around 4am-ish (Purley, Surrey).

Should this still stay as snow? Would I be right in thinking that I am in one of the "sweet spots"?

GFS does show it getting a smidge marginal but I'd have thought once you have snow on the ground that has settled that in all likelyhood it'll keep settling. The increasing dew points and marginal nature may help to reduce the ratio of precip thus getting less settle but I think we should be ok here....in central areas it will makle a difference.,

Good news is both NAE/NMM high resolution models suggests that it stays as snow for most of the Midlands.

As I've said in other threads, a delay of 2-3hrs would actually make a rather big difference in totals.

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West is Best Seasoned

West is Best

Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
Posted

OK I'll join the discussion. I'm often poor at these snow events: I remember many moons ago TEITS posting up a video link of him writing my name in the snow after I'd said it wouldn't!

However, although the cold pool is deep the angle of advance from the west is not one we'd generally favour for snow. Normally the centre of the low comes across the UK and there is big snow potential on the northern flank. As an alternative a low anchored south west has fronts stalling on a west-east axis, which again brings snow risk.

This north-south front suggests to me that any snow will readily turn to rain and I think there may be disappointments. The exception might be the far south-east if it holds on to the cold pooling and the front stalls.

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Aaron Community Regular

Aaron

Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
Posted

Great post by Matt Hugo on TWO regarding the upcoming snow event

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/yaf_postst6296_Snowfall-Event---Sat-4th-and-Sun-5th-Feb-12.aspx

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

It will be interesting to here what the stations in the west report tomorrow eg Belfast etc. If they report something more wintry than was being forecast....

Totally agree. Given there's snow still lying on the ground on the side of the A38 from Plymouth to Exeter at quite a low level, I wouldn't be surprised if this catches people out in the West more than is being currently forecast. It's certainly cold enough here this morning!

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shedhead Rising Star

shedhead

Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
Posted

I think one of the major plus points for those in the snow areas tomorrow is due to both the air temps and surface temps, barely a flake will go to waste. It can be really frustrating to see decent snow when it

simply melts in contact with relatively warm, wet surfaces, this most definately won't be the case tomorrow and even if it does turn to rain before dying out the cold surfaces should ensure any thawing/degradation

of the cover is very slow.

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dubmuffin Enthusiast

dubmuffin

Posted
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
  • Weather Preferences: hot sunny summers to ripen the veg and cold snowy winters of course
  • Location: Wallington, S London (now working from home)
Posted

Just had a look at the GFS.

This shows it getting a bit marginal for a few hours in my location around 4am-ish (Purley, Surrey).

Should this still stay as snow? Would I be right in thinking that I am in one of the "sweet spots"?

Marginal at 4am in Purley! That is a bit of a worrying news for me too :( I was hoping we'd be OK for snow here, and Purley is usually snowier than Wallington a mile or so down the road.

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted

Probably Manley, but I've got to drive from Plymouth to central London tomorrow morning, then back again from about 9pm onwards. And there's no getting out of it either!

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Marginal at 4am in Purley! That is a bit of a worrying news for me too :( I was hoping we'd be OK for snow here, and Purley is usually snowier than Wallington a mile or so down the road.

I think we will be fine from looking at the "expert" posts :)

The high res models have it as all snow. We are in a very good location for this, I am hoping for 6 inches at least! :) See you sledging on Sunday!

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Being 26 miles north and slightly west of Birmingham im favoured to seeing a wintry mix to rain within a couple of hours or so, 50 miles west shift or unexpected stalling would be great from an IMBY point of view.

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