Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[conor123]

Looks like an absolute washout here, nothing but cold rain even if it backs 50 miles west now

[patrickshere]

From an IMBY sense I think I'm in one of the best parts to see a fair bit of the white stuff from this - the only question will be whether it turns to rain or not on the back edge, leaving us with a slushy mess. I think whether it tracks a bit further east or west, we'll at least get some snow here. I think some people down in Kent etc will be left disappointed - previous experience tends to show that the front's all but dead by the time it reaches that far - if it even reaches that far, and things usually end up a bit further west than predicted, too.

[MKN]

Feel free to pinch my prediction map and use the fill but in paint to colour counties how you see things panning out since we have a few hours to kill to what could be crucial 12z outputs

[snow drift]

Feel free to pinch my prediction map and use the fill but in paint to colour counties how you see things panning out since we have a few hours to kill to what could be crucial 12z outputs

I agree with most of the Map but I think the N/E will get a bit more than you have indicated.

[kold weather]

Feel free to pinch my prediction map and use the fill but in paint to colour counties how you see things panning out since we have a few hours to kill to what could be crucial 12z outputs

Looks like a good call based on the 06z output, of course may need editing on the 12z output but for now it looks decent enough, though I'd increase the top end to 8-12cms+ as that seems a more reflective estimate based on the 06z suggestion of a stronger front.

[Snowy Easterly]

i remember getting a pasting here in feb 09 with only -3 uppers, though what uppers does this event require ?

also i don't think the PPN will be as strong as suggested as most times PPN is not that heavy here.and in the east

Edited February 3, 2012 by Snowy Easterly

[MKN]

Looks like a good call based on the 06z output, of course may need editing on the 12z output but for now it looks decent enough, though I'd increase the top end to 8-12cms+ as that seems a more reflective estimate based on the 06z suggestion of a stronger front.

lol im holding out like the metoffice before upping it to 8-12cms, generally i feel it could be about right, personally im hoping the orange area comes into play a bit more, i know people in the south east dont want it further west but for long term prospects i think if it is further west the cold will stay around longer with more potential snowfall events like this.

[Coast]

Feel free to pinch my prediction map

Oh gawd, I did one earlier for the SE boys and girls, so I might as well get hung for a sheep as a lamb - here goes again!

Areas outside the coloured ones could still get some snow, I am just looking at the greatest risk for the SE!!!

[winter watcher]

Oh gawd, I did one earlier for the SE boys and girls, so I might as well get hung for a sheep as a lamb - here goes again!

Areas outside the coloured ones could still get some snow, I am just looking at the greatest risk for the SE!!!

lool you mean eastbourne coast i.e. 'Come to Pa Pa!' either way in this situaion i am sitting preety confident of snow in my ends. cigies and vodie n red bull at ready!

[Snow Saint]

Oh gawd, I did one earlier for the SE boys and girls, so I might as well get hung for a sheep as a lamb - here goes again!

Areas outside the coloured ones could still get some snow, I am just looking at the greatest risk for the SE!!!

The western extent of your graph goes straight through my house!!.....so am i in the "safe zone"?

[Coast]

lool you mean eastbourne coast i.e. 'Come to Pa Pa!'

:lol: It does come across a bit IMBY but was genuinely drawn from a few sources first thing this morning. We can do well out of an E/NE flow as the Downs catch it like a scoop and hurl back into town, I'd draw the same if I lived in Jamaica!

[phil nw.]

Yes as the fronts come in we can see how their natural eastward progression is slowed by the cold air ahead and this small feature and how it develops will have a big affect on the snow area.

It`s very much a radar job now as with this sort of feature things can change hour by hour.

Edited February 3, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[Coast]

The western extent of your graph goes straight through my house!!.....so am i in the "safe zone"?

Hmm that's where it starts to unravel for me. I'm more confident on areas East of the South Downs, but will cross my fingers for your part of the World!

Yes as the fronts come in we can see how their natural eastward progression is slowed by the cold air ahead and this small feature and how it develops will have a big affect on the snow area.

Triple point over East Sussex later? - get in there!!!!!

[GarethK]

Nothing for norfolk out of this then?

[Snow Saint]

Hmm that's where it starts to unravel for me. I'm more confident on areas East of the South Downs, but will cross my fingers for your part of the World!

Triple point over East Sussex later? - get in there!!!!!

I have a sneaky feeling we will be ok,but surely ( the way everything has chopped and changed for the last week or so ) all of the above is subject to change at very short notice?....please feel free to correct me if i am wrong

[Snowstorm1]

How are things looking for Northeast England then with the latest runs cant check as im at college (Im near Middlesbrough btw and at the game tomorrow.)

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I no this is a thred for the event but its really turned into will it wont it thred, not good quality reading really, but understandable as we all want snow, i feel the runs were far too progressive this morning, and we all no how difficult forecasting snow is , but i genuinly believe that we will see a big swing west over night, and i cant see it been a snow to rain event for many of us, as always hight will help

[Met4Cast]

Oh gawd, I did one earlier for the SE boys and girls, so I might as well get hung for a sheep as a lamb - here goes again!

Areas outside the coloured ones could still get some snow, I am just looking at the greatest risk for the SE!!!

Oh come on, move that red section just a little further North, by say, 5 miles?

[MKN]

I no this is a thred for the event but its really turned into will it wont it thred, not good quality reading really, but understandable as we all want snow, i feel the runs were far too progressive this morning, and we all no how difficult forecasting snow is , but i genuinly believe that we will see a big swing west over night, and i cant see it been a snow to rain event for many of us, as always hight will help

I think we can put that down to the fact from roughly 1030am till 330pm there isnt much in the way of new data to look at, tomorrow we'll have the actual band of precip to keep an eye on, as for today all we will have shortly are the updated metoffice warnings. In the meantime i cant see a problem with the will it wont it posts

Edited February 3, 2012 by SnowTornado

[Heisenberg]

Coast, Im trying to understand why your going for Snow only so far south. It seems there is a lot of IMBY going on in here today, others including the Met yellow warning have snow for the region (SE and 3C), do you think your chart is pretty acurate as things stand?

I know they are likely to change a little with the 12Z but just curious.....

[phil nw.]

I think we can put that down to the fact from roughly 1030am till 330pm there isnt much in the way of new data to look at, tomorrow we'll have the actual band of precip to keep an eye on, as for today all we will have shortly are the updated metoffice warnings. In the meantime i cant see a problem with the will it wont it posts

Yes that`s right we can`t be concise on this -not even the pros.will be able to pinpoint this yet,so speculate to a certain extent is all we can do.

[Heisenberg]

What time do the Meto generally update the warnings? Is there a set time each day?

[Coast]

Coast, Im trying to understand why your going for Snow only so far south.

It was originally posted in the London and SE thread so that's all I looked at!!! It's not to the exclusion of any other possibilities, just for a specific regional set. I suspect it will get up as far as Lincolnshire, but our 'local reporter' TEITS is the man to ask about his thoughts for that part of the World.

Weather and particularly snow isn't IMBYish, it falls where it likes and it's just lucky or not for whoever happens to be under it!!! :lol:

[i luv snow]

Nothing for norfolk out of this then?

I would imagine there will be - I'm in Norfolk all weekend and would expect some heavy snow!

Not entirely sure I agree with Coast's chart only showing snow so far south, even 6z would show most of EA with snow too - and a further westward shift of ppn (widely expected by many) would see ALOT more of England seeing mainly/all snow.

edit: I see it was only meant for SE, so ignore my comments Coast!

Edited February 3, 2012 by i luv snow

[toggerob]

Snow-Forecast keeping things for the majority of the UK, the new 4-6 day charts has 10-25cm of snowfall across northern parts of Wales most likely in association with the cold front behind this, much talked about, warm front.

I guess I should throw a link in there aswell for that http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk