Wales (cymru) - Regional Weather Discussion (part 4)

[WREXHAM]

just had a bit of a hail storm here for 5 mins in llangollen

[TheWeatherGirl]

Well although the rain had a really good go at washing away our precious white stuff last night we still have quite a bit of it laying around. Hoping we can hang onto whats left, the scene outside my window is quite lovely

[mikeocarroll]

Min of -3.8c here last night, -1.7c currently. Half melted snow has hardened into a solid layer of ice, pretty much cutting us off down the country lane here, so hoping it warms up later.

[DeepSnow]

Bit quiet in here thismorning, currently 4.0C here and damp! Whats it looking like for this week for us then?

[judowidow]

I can't Believe how quiet it is either :-( might have to do some housework instead lol

[J10]

I am sure Tony is doing his weekly outlook as we speak.

The general theme for this week seems to be turning colder again from the east and possibly quite dry, but not bitterly cold. I think though the detail is very hard to pin down,

[CRACKPOT]

Might have possibilites a snow tuesday -wednesday a front approaches from the west and a front from the east fasinating weather watching this week.

I think that possibilty is now a no-goer according to latest charts and MetO.... going to be a relaitevly benign cool week again by the looks of it. Great.

JK

[TonyH]

Weather guide Monday 6th to Sunday 12th February (west Wales and central MIdlands)

Headline: Becoming cold and mostly dry again

The battleground event happened on cue yesterday with 3- 5 inches of snow falling across Coventry and Warwickshire, while the milder air won out over west Wales. The continent has been bitterly cold of late, in Paris the temperature falling to -9c, and heavy snow in Rome for example. Llanwnnen got down to -10c Friday morning, this nowhere near as cold as the -17c recorded on Christmas Day 2010!

During the early part of this week we are in a 'No Man's Land' neither in cold nor mild air, being within a slack area between high and low pressures.

Messy weather too, some sun, some cloud, bits of rain or drizzle about, but dry in places too! Not cold enough for snow, but cold enough to freeze overnight with potential ice problems for morning commuters. Maxima on Monday and Tuesday between 4 and 8c, mildest over Pembrokeshire.

Rather debatable Wednesday onwards with the models showing some slightly differing trends, but with greater consequences in weather terms.

Strongest indications are for high pressure to reform over Scandinavia again with this ridging cold air back over England and Wales from Wednesday. During Wednesday itself though, a niggle, as Atlantic fronts may progress close enough to west Wales to bring some sleet or snow here, however this is a low probability at this stage, but don't be too surprised to see some wintriness this day perhaps. Cold easterly winds look likely again to end this week, with crisp sunny periods by day, but hard frosts overnight, and also freezing fog could linger well into the day in places. Maxima between 1 and 3c generally, although staying below zero locally, should freezing fog persist well into the afternoon. With the high pressure in control, snow is unlikely, apart from the odd rogue light flurry into the Midland perhaps.

Next weekend, as always at a distance, and greater doubts cast as to what may happen. It looks like the high pressure will be over or close to the UK by then, so it would still be cold and frosty, although should the high sink to our south-west, as GFS suggests, turning milder. However, I would bet on the cold holding on well into next weekend.

[J10]

It is currently 7c here, I also suspect that it will turn colder again next week, if perhaps not quite as last week.

[WalsallWeather]

Warm day (compared to the rest of the week!) I just hope it is relatively quiet for next weekend as I am travelling up to Birmingham!

[loadsa]

I am off to the snow had a text from Holland -10 and snowing hard. Flight at 6am tomorrow

[whiskers]

what happened, people were saying not to fret about the rain washing the snow away,as we are gunna get more this week, is that not the case?why is it sooooooooooooo quiet in here this isnt good news,did countryfile say anything this morning?

[ourson]

As it's so quiet, I'd thought I'd post a piccy of Ponty form december 2010 (just outside Andy's house):

Looks like a fairly quiet period on the way for us in the near future. Pity, because chances of anything particularly wintery is lessening as the days get longer (although we are not out of the winter period yet, and I am not giving up hope).

Edited February 5, 2012 by ourson

[soupsurfer7]

Charts seem to have us in 'limbo land' this week then, with not much going on Neither too cold nor too mild :s

Edited February 5, 2012 by soupsurfer7

[chubbystuff]

what happened for the potential on tues ????

[whiskers]

thats what i was wondering, doesnt look like its gonna come to anything this week, no point in watching countryfile then?

[andymusic]

As it's so quiet, I'd thought I'd post a piccy of Ponty form december 2010 (just outside Andy's house):

Looks like a fairly quiet period on the way for us in the near future. Pity, because chances of anything particularly wintery is lessening as the days get longer (although we are not out of the winter period yet, and I am not giving up hope).

Nice touch ourson - yep I concour - quiet but cold for the next 7 days or so - high pressure taking charge - not to say there may be the odd flurry of something here or there - eyes look to next weekend and onwards now to see whether we can muster some more heavier falls of the white stuff before spring. Still got a covering of sorts up here - makes things extremely icy!

[J10]

any surface feed from the continent will be cold at this time of year, especilly given the weather there atm. Cerainly worth watching the modles, as things can crop up, it's not as if there a mild zonal flow over us.

[keithlucky]

what happened for the potential on tues ????

Still think the potential is there for snow wednesday thursday as a LP tries to make inroads from the s west.

[chubbystuff]

Thanks Keith getting down in the dumps as thread is so quiet and everyone saying weather has calmed down, hope your right quite jealous of the english at the mo.

[mikeocarroll]

Speaking of potential is there any chance of the precip currently over Wales turning wintry? DP here is -1.5c at the moment, NMM model suggests uppers between -2 and -4 which would be too warm, but if the model is slightly out then game of perhaps? Extreme wishful thinking!

[keithlucky]

Thanks Keith getting down in the dumps as thread is so quiet and everyone saying weather has calmed down, hope your right quite jealous of the english at the mo.

Yes chubby jealously is a terrible thing lol.Lets be patient and see what develops over the next few days ,as soon as i see any potential i will get back to you.

[andymusic]

Speaking of potential is there any chance of the precip currently over Wales turning wintry? DP here is -1.5c at the moment, NMM model suggests uppers between -2 and -4 which would be too warm, but if the model is slightly out then game of perhaps? Extreme wishful thinking!

I was wondering the same myself - temps and the rest of the ingredients do not look far off - but only rain forecast! - mmmmm we shall see!

[J10]

I was wondering the same myself - temps and the rest of the ingredients do not look far off - but only rain forecast! - mmmmm we shall see!

Heights at the 500hpa and 850hpa are not that conducive for snow. above both 528 dam and 1300m respectively.

[PeteB]

5 years, almost to the day, that we had our last decent snowfall around here, nothing over 5cm's since then. This is the longest we've gone since the early 1970's. Other than a brief covering in December this looks be another very poor winter for North East Wales. I've not completely given up hope as the heaviest fall I've ever seen around here, 44cm's in a day happened in Mid March 1978 but I'm already starting to look forward to spring.

Pete