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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

kold weather
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Guest

Posted
Posted

On ians forecast just watch the time and the snow :drinks:

Yes - i'd imagine you're in one of the 'sweet spots' for tom

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Jonesywilliteversnow Newbie

Jonesywilliteversnow

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Think it will potentialy be a "work from home day" on Friday, don't fancy driving from Frome to Bristol at 5:30am....

Quick techie question, if the winds are pulling cold air up from the south I'm surprised any snow we may have will potentialy turn back to rain (as indicated in the NAE charts Active Weather Dude posted earlier)..... I would have guessed this may have possibly been a all snow event? - As you can guess im not a weather guru...:-)

Is anyone able to explain why this may turn back to rain

Cheers all, and GL

Now I am no expert either but

Think its because there coming from more a south westerly and its not that cold in north west France / English channel seas have a warming effect on the temperatures...

12020918_0812.gif

Temperatures in France as the event is happening :)

khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Ahem.... Its 9.25 and im on my phone awaiting an NAE update pls !

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Doesnt look like it here, more North somerset according to ians latest tweet

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81

Latest ECM seasonal data which now covers Jun/Jul/Aug signals high pressure anom to the W of the UK with near avg temps through the summer

Forget about snow...... Lets start the summer heat search up......

Oh, Sounds errrr....... great! :fool::search:

kumquat Experienced

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted (edited)

Interesting tweet re: model guidance preferred by Met Office and especially re: NMM: from Ian F:

@ purecharmer: They never refer to the NMM in their analysis. Inter-model guidance from UKMO largely compares UKMO-GM, ECMWF, GFS, JMA, Arpege

Edited by kumquat
Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81

Latest ECM seasonal data which now covers Jun/Jul/Aug signals high pressure anom to the W of the UK with near avg temps through the summer

Forget about snow...... Lets start the summer heat search up......

Oh, Sounds errrr....... great! :fool::search:

But if high pressure is to the W of the UK that means we would be pulling more of a northerly doesnt sound warm to me lol.

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted (edited)

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

Last 2 model runs retain idea of snow starting to appear into N Glos by later eve on Thurs; to Bristol & M4 by midnight; more widely by 3am.

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

New analysis frm UKMO Ch Forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Mids, E Wales into W Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, B&NES, N/NE Som

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

Analysis frm new model run offers 2-7cm widely into Fri AM rush-hr M5 corridor Glos; Forest of Dean; Cotswolds; Bristol to Swindon; Mendips.

Edited by Active Weather Dude
Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Doesnt look like it here, more North somerset according to ians latest tweet

That's music to my ears that is.

BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted

They give rain for here as per normal, but as cold air go's it bloody cold here now.

Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

I cant help but feel excited its a shame its still 24h away still time for change but hopefully for the better.

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

That's music to my ears that is.

Lucky you! but i will get something so im happy :) bbc weather 5 day forecast got me down for heavy snow all friday morning

Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

Last 2 model runs retain idea of snow starting to appear into N Glos by later eve on Thurs; to Bristol & M4 by midnight; more widely by 3am.

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

New analysis frm UKMO Ch Forecaster keeps bias of main snow threat W Mids, E Wales into W Country, esp Glos, Wilts, Bristol, B&NES, N/NE Som

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

Analysis frm new model run offers 2-7cm widely into Fri AM rush-hr M5 corridor Glos; Forest of Dean; Cotswolds; Bristol to Swindon; Mendips.

Just saw those - i was about to post them in here! You beat me to it!

Fingers crossed - could be lively in this thread tom eve :clap:

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Just saw those - i was about to post them in here! You beat me to it!

Fingers crossed - could be lively in this thread tom eve :clap:

Just saw those - i was about to post them in here! You beat me to it!

Fingers crossed - could be lively in this thread tom eve :clap:

everyone wll be having a late night tomorrow!

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

Just saw those - i was about to post them in here! You beat me to it!

Fingers crossed - could be lively in this thread tom eve :clap:

Yep, actually looking interesting for Bristol for once! Nothing special, but the best we have had, and could have this winter! So make the most of anything we do get I say!

khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted

Sorry but i don't put any confidence in those 5 day forecasts. Not saying its nite going to happen, but they are pants

Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

Fingers Crossed i dont want to go into work friday might make an excuse lol.

alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Im not getting to excited until tomorrow (Y)

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

If you start work between 3am and 9am Friday morning in Bristol or Bath or Swindon or Gloucester or Cheltenham, then I wouldnt bother going in, just to be on the safe side!

Mark Parsons Community Regular

Mark Parsons

Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
Posted

We still need to bare in mind that this is a front coming across high pressure, this could mean any ppn could potentially end up patchy and light hence why any snow could turn back to rain. This is marginal for many and could just as easily turn out a damp squib as it could a snow event, I personally think the latter and probably will give some surprises for some who have already written this off. I think an early night might be in order to save yourselves for tomorrow night lol !!

Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

If you start work between 3am and 9am Friday morning in Bristol or Bath or Swindon or Gloucester or Cheltenham, then I wouldnt bother going in, just to be on the safe side!

I work in bath and would have to travel over lansdown.

andybk Newbie

andybk

Posted
  • Location: Emborough Mendip Hills Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm , not hot , Sun ,
  • Location: Emborough Mendip Hills Somerset
Posted

, meto have 5 deg sat and 7 deg, sunday , and 3 or 4 at night , be like summer ,

AWD Maestro

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, nr Bristol.
Posted

I work in bath and would have to travel over lansdown.

Yeah, to be on the safe side I just wouldnt bother! Not worth it! We always grind to a halt around here with just 2cm's of snow! Not saying its going to be bad or nothing because its marginal, and could easily go boobs up, but it could be as forecast too!

Paul T Explorer

Paul T

Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead
Posted

850'S within the front on the NAE out to 18z are a little lower. Not a bad sign....

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