Met Office V John Kettley: Early February 2001

[Weather-history]

There was a bit of an excitement weatherwise when John Kettley predicted a very cold spell for early February 2001, however the Met Office dismissed the possibilities. Helen Young actually made this point that this was not the Met Office forecast in one of her broadcasts.

By the end of the week, there was a definite backtrack

I don't think anyone came out of this well. John Kettley was mocked for the failure of the appearance of the cold spell although in Scotland and parts of northern England did become very wintry that weekend and the Met Office were too quick to dismiss wintry prospects.

[Snowmad79]

Hi pal, just wondering if there's a particular reason for posting this, other than how volatile forecasting is ?. I mean like not taking current output for granted ?

[Weather-history]

Hi pal, just wondering if there's a particular reason for posting this, other than how volatile forecasting is ?. I mean like not taking current output for granted ?

No, it was just well known event.

[Bishop Brennan]

No, it was just well known event.

And a fascinating one at that. Thank you once again for sharing these clips with us, Mr Data

Bish

[Weather-history]

Looking back at it, Helen Young should have really said that "at this stage we don't expect the cold air to the east to push into the UK but we will firm up on this later in the week" But instead she totally dismissed it and I'm just wondering if there was a bit of bad blood between John Kettley and Helen Young?

I'm trying to remember why John Kettley left now, I recall Helen Young was made the head BBC forecaster and whether John Kettley took slight umbrage for being overlooked for the position, I don't know.

Come to think of it whatever happened to Helen Young?

[WhiteFox]

Office politics! I remember the setup well. The normal situation of a Siberian high v the Atlantic which in this case the Atlantic won. I like John Kettley as a forecaster, to me he represented one of the last of the old school: Michael Fish, Bill Giles et al. It was around this time that the presentation started to become more important than the actual forecasting IMHO.

[johnholmes]

Looking back at it, Helen Young should have really said that "at this stage we don't expect the cold air to the east to push into the UK but we will firm up on this later in the week" But instead she totally dismissed it and I'm just wondering if there was a bit of bad blood between John Kettley and Helen Young?

I'm trying to remember why John Kettley left now, I recall Helen Young was made the head BBC forecaster and whether John Kettley took slight umbrage for being overlooked for the position, I don't know.

Come to think of it whatever happened to Helen Young?

lots of muddy water and throwing toys out in that period with many of them. Best I not say too much as I do know much of the behind the scenes goings on.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The descriptions of the internal politics don't surprise me sadly- I've seen so much of it among politicians!

Probably explains why I didn't know there was a "very nearly easterly" for that spell on the basis of watching the BBC forecasts almost daily- the closest I got was becoming aware of the likely frontal snow for north-east England on the 4th February, which at one time the BBC forecasts had a little too far south, but they were always pretty reserved about the snow event. In NE England the snow settled inland but at Cleadon we had 36 hours of heavy sleet, driven on by a strong and bitter south-easterly, which failed to settle.

[Harve]

As a side note, those graphics were horrid, especially the rain/snow map at 0.35 on the second video for example. I can't believe there was such a fuss when they switched!

[WhiteFox]

As a side note, those graphics were horrid, especially the rain/snow map at 0.35 on the second video for example. I can't believe there was such a fuss when they switched!

Looking back, you're right. My beef isn't with the graphics, rather it's now more about the fancy "fly-through" and too much talk about specifics. To me the national forecast should have detailed synoptic analysis, and general forecasts. Is like to see the possibilities of what may happen rather than spending 80% of the time on today and then mentioning at the end 'there may be snow this weekend but we're unsure'. Very old-fashioned, I know...

[Bolton67]

Come to think of it whatever happened to Helen Young?

According to the below link.

Left in Nov 2005

Became a full time Mum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helen_Young

[Guest]

There was a bit of an excitement weatherwise when John Kettley predicted a very cold spell for early February 2001, however the Met Office dismissed the possibilities. Helen Young actually made this point that this was not the Met Office forecast in one of her broadcasts.

By the end of the week, there was a definite backtrack

I don't think anyone came out of this well. John Kettley was mocked for the failure of the appearance of the cold spell although in Scotland and parts of northern England did become very wintry that weekend and the Met Office were too quick to dismiss wintry prospects.

How did it pan out in actual fact - Afraid I can't remember unless it was a period when we got some nice powdery snow in Feb - unfortunately I have been so long on this earth that all the years tend to run into each other now!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there was certainly room for improvement with the old graphics- whether they needed to switch to Metra or just upgrade the existing ones is debatable as the modern package also has its downsides, but in general I agree more with what WhiteFox said.

Today's national broadcasts are generally aimed at a specific audience as part of moving away from the "one size fits all" approach, e.g. the fly-bys at 8am are tailored towards those wanting to know if there will be disruption on their way to work. I have long been a critic of this- the audience is about as heterogeneous as they come and even if a heavily "directed" presentation or value judgement fits 80% of the population at the expense of the other 20%, 20% equates to some 12 million people.

Regarding the event itself, snow fell and accumulated widely across Scotland, and stuck around for a long period around Aberdeen. Northern England had some snow inland, but it was short-lived away from high ground (some pretty serious snow occurred on the high ground of Northumberland) and failed to settle near the east coast. Southern areas missed out.

[Terminal Moraine]

Come to think of it whatever happened to Helen Young?

She left to have a baby, returned for a short time following maternity leave then left to have a second child and has not returned.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

What was the Kettley high? Did it have anything to do with this event?

[joggs]

lots of muddy water and throwing toys out in that period with many of them. Best I not say too much as I do know much of the behind the scenes goings on.

Oh come on John don,t leave us hanging there lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

classic old bbc forecasts! nowhere near as good now (graphics wise) seemed a classic north south battle, exciting for Scottish members, dont think I had any snow during this

[Weather-history]

Here are the forecasts leading to this event

30th January 2001

31st January 2001

[Weather-history]

1st February 2001

2nd February 2001