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North West Of England Regional Discussion - Part 6


kold weather

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

First-class post there IF :clapping:

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Posted
  • Location: South Cheshire
  • Location: South Cheshire

Afternoon all! Three degrees and a little slush on the ground. That'll spell disaster for the school run should it freeze this evening. Feeling positively balmy out there today.

Oh the joys of living in the Cheshire Plains...

Edited by Louise
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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Lancs
  • Location: Oldham, Lancs

Still loads of snow here, but it's definitely thawing... slowly..

I think I'd have a moan too if some of my NW neighbours got loads of snow (like I did) but I got nothing, you can't blame em really.

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Posted
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL

Snow here has turned slushy, current temp 3.7C this is the max so far today. I feel quite content with the snow outcome so far this winter, with two events this and Dec 16th where snow/slush hung around for couple of days.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

Its foggy and really icy here in leyland this morning but its all melted as soon

as the fog lifted. I went to bolton and over there is about 10cm of snow. :p

Leyland has none. :cray:

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston

Dont forget with all this optimism or lack of it.....location. If you live in an area that gets little snow then....your not being negative to say, I don't think ill see lying snow for the rest of winter....I could probably go further for this location and say if I see significant lying snow in the next five years ill be doing ok.....obviously not based on any models or climate patterns just based on history

The last two years excluded i have very rarely seen significant lying snow here....yet the models predict or suggest it fairly regularly.....therefore surely it is only common sense to be suspicious of model output when it does.

As for yesterday...I dont think I saw one model run or warning that confidently predicted snow right on the west coast (even the late upgrades mentioned rain on the coast) so why any one in any of the traditional snow free zones (fylde coast, Liverpool, Wirral, Runcorn) actually expected snow is beyond me.

Edited by chris78
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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains

Looks like I've already more or less got the answer to my MetO question and it isn't the one I'd like to hear.

Honestly can anyone give me a solid reason why I shouldn't just give up on winter now? because I'm, really, really struggling here.

I can't give you any reasons TBH , this winter has been very poor in terms of snow and coldness here in the NW , i am now looking forward to spring and getting the garden furniture out of the shed,not to mention the BBQ...we have had a max temp of 6.6c today but in the sunshine near the back of the house (which faces south) it almost felt 'warm' :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

It's called being a realist IF, it's all very well quoting charts, but these same charts have delivered diddly squat for most of the NW this winter. Until Northern blocking becomes established then the majority of the NW will see little or no snow. The clock is now ticking, and this coming week will be another week gone. Game over IMO, of what has been a truly awful winter around these parts.
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

One thing that interests me it why when thier is severe cold extremely close to the UK - look at some of the temperatures over in Holland and Northern France - why couldn't we tap into it this time? Yes, I know that they are on the landmass of contiental Europe so are likley to be colder in the winter but what has been experienced over thier has been severe cold - well below average whereas at the moment we have not been as cold relative to average - the cold in France/Benelux/Germany could be colder that what was experienced over thier in 2009/10 and December 2010 - also Scotland and Ireland have only been around average for the time of year - does anyone know why this is?

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I still think the GFS is overexaggerating the extent of exceptionally cold night temperatures it pulls off in more western/coastal parts of our region, certainly there will be places in our region which will hold onto snow when the next easterly comes, and those areas will see the -6C to -8C that the GFS is forecasting overnight next week. However the lows forecast over areas where there was no snow, or the ground has now warmed up, are probably wildly exaggerated. Perhaps -3C or -4C at absolutely coldest, but -6 to -7C, looks a bit optimistic.

When the easterly/continental spell kicked off, it took a few days for the ground the cool down significantly in order to develop cold nights minimums, for places like here, this process will have to be started again because the ground is actually fairly mild, compared to what it was.

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Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL

Dont forget with all this optimism or lack of it.....location. If you live in an area that gets little snow then....your not being negative to say, I don't think ill see lying snow for the rest of winter....I could probably go further for this location and say if I see significant lying snow in the next five years ill be doing ok.....obviously not based on any models or climate patterns just based on history

The last two years excluded i have very rarely seen significant lying snow here....yet the models predict or suggest it fairly regularly.....therefore surely it is only common sense to be suspicious of model output when it does.

As for yesterday...I dont think I saw one model run or warning that confidently predicted snow right on the west coast (even the late upgrades mentioned rain on the coast) so why any one in any of the traditional snow free zones (fylde coast, Liverpool, Wirral, Runcorn) actually expected snow is beyond me.

Its the whole west coast of the uk that does very poor maybe apart from NW Scotland
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

It's called being a realist IF, it's all very well quoting charts, but these same charts have delivered diddly squat for most of the NW this winter. Until Northern blocking becomes established then the majority of the NW will see little or no snow. The clock is now ticking, and this coming week will be another week gone. Game over IMO, of what has been a truly awful winter around these parts.

It's not as if we're quoting charts for 10 weeks time, we're quoting charts which show the background signals for what could happen for the rest of the month.

FYI - the 500mb anomaly charts didn't ever suggest a cold December & January - which turned out correct. These are the most accurate charts for medium & long range forecasting you'll probably find, so it would be very unwise to not pay attention to the patterns they are showing.

Winter is not over, quite the opposite. Can't wait to see your faces when we get some Northern blocking mid-month.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

It's not as if we're quoting charts for 10 weeks time, we're quoting charts which show the background signals for what could happen for the rest of the month.

FYI - the 500mb anomaly charts didn't ever suggest a cold December & January - which turned out correct. These are the most accurate charts for medium & long range forecasting you'll probably find, so it would be very unwise to not pay attention to the patterns they are showing.

Winter is not over, quite the opposite. Can't wait to see your faces when we get some Northern blocking mid-month.

This was the month they were showing cold, and so far they are right. The MetO however have now seen a milder signal, and seen as they have been spot on all winter I 'll go with them, rather than others.
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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

This was the month they were showing cold, and so far they are right. The MetO however have now seen a milder signal, and seen as they have been spot on all winter I 'll go with them, rather than others.

The Met Office have been far from spot on this winter, that's a laughable statement!!

How have they even picked up a milder signal? It shows average conditions before the cold returns mid-month, tying in nicely with the 500mb charts...

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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border

I still think the GFS is overexaggerating the extent of exceptionally cold night temperatures it pulls off in more western/coastal parts of our region, certainly there will be places in our region which will hold onto snow when the next easterly comes, and those areas will see the -6C to -8C that the GFS is forecasting overnight next week. However the lows forecast over areas where there was no snow, or the ground has now warmed up, are probably wildly exaggerated. Perhaps -3C or -4C at absolutely coldest, but -6 to -7C, looks a bit optimistic.

When the easterly/continental spell kicked off, it took a few days for the ground the cool down significantly in order to develop cold nights minimums, for places like here, this process will have to be started again because the ground is actually fairly mild, compared to what it was.

our soil is still frozen solid
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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

The Met Office have been far from spot on this winter, that's a laughable statement!!

How have they even picked up a milder signal? It shows average conditions before the cold returns mid-month, tying in nicely with the 500mb charts...

The latest 16-30 dayer says otherwise.
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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool
  • Location: Liverpool

The latest 16-30 dayer says otherwise.

But remember the Met Office medium range forecasts are updated every day and are liable to change at short notice, so I would imagine confidence is low for "milder weather" at the moment especially considering it is for the second half of the month and it is difficult to predict from that far out.

Luke

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Posted
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL
  • Location: Blackrod Nr Bolton 156m ASL

Thick fog has appeared can't see the end of our street, looks very creepy, temp fallen to +2.3C

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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

Sorry HC - but how very wrong you are.

A quick look at the 500mb anomaly charts will tell you that we're due a very blocked month with winds from the North or East dominating. Way above average pressure over Scadinavia & Greenland meaning blocking out East before retrogressing over Greenland. Look for waa over Greenland promoting high-latitude blocking.

Come the end of February, I guarantee you will have to eat your words, as you'll probably be complaining that your pipes have frozen. Given the output we're getting from the ECM - especially the ensemble suite with even the unreliable GFS hinting at blocking to the NW at times, it's a pretty silly statement to make, especially considering some of the largest snowfalls recorded have been in Mid February to mid March!

keep kidding yourself mate...you have witnessed one of the mildest winters on record, read the rest of it and you know i am right for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

keep kidding yourself mate...you have witnessed one of the mildest winters on record, read the rest of it and you know i am right for us.

LOL!

It's hardly been above average! It was an average winter SO FAR.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

take the cold out and it was above average, put the cold in and overall it's still slghtly above average. We have however had well below average frosts, and below average snowfall.

By the way it's already -6C at Church Fenton, thats what snow can do to your temperatures.. it might reach -15C there tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold & snowy in winter. Hot and stormy in summer.
  • Location: Preston, Lancashire

Its foggy and really icy here in leyland this morning but its all melted as soon

as the fog lifted. I went to bolton and over there is about 10cm of snow. :p

Leyland has none. :cray:

Hi Phillip. Welcome to the forum. Just down the road from me. :)

Yes the fog was bad this morning, visibility was very poor driving.

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Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire

BT is correct. It is not optimism, it is proof. 500hpa charts seem supportive of HLB becoming more organised and a shift towards blocking heights around Greenland.

And its total rubbish to dismiss winter on Feb 5.

Also, it is insane to suggest Feb sun will affect snow depth, perhaps towards the last week of feb, but even then, colder SSTs and less modification allows a colder source than the same date in january, even with a stronger sun.

Some of the ranting on here with no reasoning from some moaners just makes me laugh.

you can have all the proof you want, but we've seen this proof before come to absolutely nothing, so you know i am extremely sceptical about anything these charts are banding about, especially after what we've gone through (december / january)..until it happens i think its a bit churlish to be calling the 500mb as proof.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire

Aaand handbags away please gents...

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