Significant Snow/Freezing Rain Risk - 9-10th February

[Cheese Rice]

I can understand the precip amounts because like I say the front will take a while to clear the W. However I cannot see all that precip falling as snow across W areas which is why im puzzled at the 20cm predictions. The ideal conditions for snowfall are towards the E but here between 1-6cm is predicted.

One thing I will add is the NAE over estimates extent of snow and the GFS tends to underestimate.

Have you considered the prospects of surface cold undercutting the front?

And yes the NAE is not conclusive of 20cm of snow, the PPN accumulation chart for the next 48 hours shows no more than 2-5mm

The Meto now use a new model called the UKV which it is likely to be uses instead of the NAE, might be where they are getting there ideas from. Important to note the UKMO/ECM would produce over 20cm of snow.

http://www.metoffice...search/news/ukv

[TEITS]

Have you considered the prospects of surface cold undercutting the front?

And yes the NAE is not conclusive of 20cm of snow, the PPN accumulation chart for the next 48 hours shows no more than 2-5mm

The Meto now use a new model called the UKV which it is likely to be uses instead of the NAE, might be where they are getting there ideas from.

http://www.metoffice...roving-accuracy

Trouble is the chart you posted with the heaviest precip has upper temps of +2C. The surface cold has no effect because its temps in the upper atmosphere which dictates whether rain or snow falls. This is why freezing rain occurs because its cold at the surface but the warmer temps higher up cause rain to freeze onto the surface.

[TEITS]

Massive shift W from the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...8-594.GIF?08-17

0Z had precip across all of England.

[kold weather]

Have you considered the prospects of surface cold undercutting the front?

http://www.metoffice...roving-accuracy

Yeah there is cold air at the surface and thats certainly a big bonus as it gives much more lee-way. The problem is ther eis a wedge of slightly milder air also forecasted to be in place around 850hpa, at least over the NW region.

What I suspect will happen looking at the 12z output is snow for most of the Midlands SE-wards, as well as probably through to E.parts of SW England. Freezing rain to start with for NW.Midlands but with a tendency as the night goes on to switch to snow. NW may keep the freezing rain/sleet combo throughout...

[danm]

Massive shift W from the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...8-594.GIF?08-17

LOL. That is an insane shift west.

[kold weather]

LOL. That is an insane shift west.

UKMO is a joke of a model when it comes to precip...I'll wait until another model jumps that far west!!

I sorta hope it does shift west, perhaps like the UKMO warning zone (which seems to be further west on the latest update from the main site!) for reasons I've discussed earlier...

[shedhead]

Massive shift W from the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...8-594.GIF?08-17

0Z had precip across all of England.

Sure is, that even puts me in the frame!

[kold weather]

Worth noting the UKMO and to some extent the NAE as well are often too far west in set-ups when fronts come down from the north, many times I've seen snow forecasted to go dpown the west and its ended up being a good deal further east. Normally in these set-ups you tend to err to the east when it comes to uncertainty.

I think the GFS looks about right for location right now but its hard to say how it will play out.

[danm]

UKMO is a joke of a model when it comes to precip...I'll wait until another model jumps that far west!!

I sorta hope it does shift west, perhaps like the UKMO warning zone (which seems to be further west on the latest update from the main site!) for reasons I've discussed earlier...

Yeah, i'm not taking that chart seriously by any means. I highly doubt the Met pay any attention to the UKMO precipitation charts within 48hrs as they have far better high res models at their fingertips.

[saintkip]

Massive shift W from the UKMO.

http://www.meteociel...8-594.GIF?08-17

0Z had precip across all of England.

Do you have the charts for 6 and 12 hours before that?? the rain band will cross from the east giving other areas snow before that

[Costa Del Fal]

Met Office text forecast for the West Midlands sounds very confident on a good spell of snow and good accumulations. Symbol forecast going for almost 24 hours of wintry weather here!

Still quite low confidence though imo.

[TEITS]

Still one thing if anyone is disappointed the 12Zs have upgraded big time next week!

Pop to the model discussion thread and see for yourselves.

[Cheese Rice]

UKMO is a mess, the percipitation stay the same intensity yet manages to travel a full circle around the UK back to its previous position across northern England.

Would do well here though.

[Eugene]

Yes there is a risk that the front tomorrow afternoon/evening will give some snowfall here in central midlands before being pushed back westwards on friday and the SE midlands missing out.

[kold weather]

12z NMM goes for a snow event for eastern areas, but keeps it as rain for central/western areas...so BIG uncertainty with regards to the set-up even now.

I wouldn't want to call it at all...but all I'll say is the NMM was unreal for Saturday, one of the BEST model forecasts I've ever seen, nailed both precip type AND total amounts, exactly...

[trisnow]

Whats the NMM please?

[snowingtequila]

I am forecasting a snow event for me here, I am not making a model forecast I an making this because I have been working outside today as I always do and said when I came in I felt like there was some snow on the way. We also have a covering of snow and drifts that needs to be taken away by another fall. Not been on here for a few days so thought I'd have a look to see if there was anything backing for my hunch! I reckon my thoughts are about as accurate as the models at this time scale the way they keep changing

[IDO]

Snow for Friday:

http://www.metoffice...g-rain-and-snow

Nothing for SW or SE or North of manchester.

[Zenarcher]

Met Office have released this map for the 9th and 10th of February showing the area's of risk.

[Snowstorm1]

Met Office have released this map for the 9th and 10th of February showing the area's of risk.

Im right at the northern extent of that graph ... have I got a chance tommorrow of snowfall or am I looking at a damp squib

[trisnow]

Met Office have released this map for the 9th and 10th of February showing the area's of risk.

Why does this appear to be a lot further west than other models/charts?? Very different..

[IDO]

Why does this appear to be a lot further west than other models/charts?? Very different..

Just watched the BBC weather and they are saying that there is still uncertainty for Friday to how far east the snow will go. They have it west of London, but with the proviso it could change...

[snow drift]

Whats the NMM please?

http://www.skystef.be/forecast15.html

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Just watched the BBC weather and they are saying that there is still uncertainty for Friday to how far east the snow will go. They have it west of London, but with the proviso it could change...

To be honest the last bbc24 weathr showed things very differently, they showed the snow pushing through quickly and vaguely tbh , then it went to friday and it showed the snow over central england again, what it looked to be was they showed recent graphics for thurs night looked very similar to nae , then old graphics for thurs , and mentioned how uncertain they are.

What i think is there are doubts as to weather the front will stall, hence the latest graphics went with nae. But they arent sure so they have the potential for the snow for friday aswel. That way they cover themselvs.

[Cheese Rice]

NMM goes for 17mm over central northern england, which would equate to 17cm of snow.

However the NMM goes for freezing rain for the most part.

Duno what to expect tbh.